Long

WBD bottoming in process, turnaround soon? Target 70 USD +

Updated

Following WBD for quiet a few years, and we could witness now a bottoming process, where either we have the lows already in, or we should be near to it.

On the several year-prospect we had already a wave 1 (or A wave) to the upside, with a wave 2 several year pullback as either as a-b-c (with an overshooting b wave to the upside), or a WXY structure.

Yellow route is the alternative route for now, which highlights one more bigger swing lows arriving (and that currently we might be in yellow wavecounts, where price action SHOULD hold the 8.30-8.40 USD mark and not break below comfortably. (Secondary scenario)

Primary scenario where I watching primary a bottoming process is the white route where the white big wave (2) is already in at ~8.80 USD. As the weekly and daily MACD/RSI showing bullish divergence, and also the runup having clearly impulsive characteristic from that bottom, I am leaning towards this scenario.

Be aware, yellow is still not invalidated though. I am re-publishing the idea, since the previous one got flagged for house-rule-violation.

Note

In the previous idea our defined green box held up very nicely (so far), and we saw a very nice reaction. Be aware though, despite it is having a very impulsive movement, so far it is only a 3 wave move, and what we need to see is a 5 wave up, with a 3 waves pullback on a bigger scale, holding later support (we cannot define it yet, will update it later).

If in-deed we had the bottom in place, we should witness maybe one or two more smaller swing low to the green support box as being the 4th wave, and then a swing up taking out the previous swing high. Landing 12.30 USD - 13 USD somewhere in between. Be aware though we have arrived to a structural resistance though.

Note

Massacre move to the downside. Green support fib area was not holding for a wave 4, not only that, we cut through so far the deeper wave2/wave B support meanwhile very very fast like a knife on a butter down for the 0.786 support area, now retesting the purple falling wedge (diagonal?) descending trendline.

Extremely impulsive movement to the downside, which now heavily shift probabilites to the yellow route. Be aware, the current white route I have sketched out is already invalidated with todays open move... Best case it is a different setup (maybe a diagonal, maybe just an "a" wave from an abc), however neither of them is trustable at this stage. I would expect further downside, making new lows with this move. Unless now it shoots up immediately.

Note

Lost the 0.887 level support. Extreme sell volume is arriving. Prep for further downside. We have so far lost also the trendline, and all the moving averages support on the daily as well.

Note

Current white route/counts invalidated completely. It will have a slim chance to be resetted and start all over again at around the 9.43-9.47 USD levels, we nearly there.

Chances are extremely slim though, yellow is highly in control now.

Note

Ugly overall day, yellow route gained heavy probability. As I mentioned there is a slim chance a white route can be resetted just right where we are now, but so far we have closed below the big 0.887 retracement. If we jump back above 9.47 tomorrow withouth making any meaningful new sustained low, there is a slim chance to restart 5 waves up, OR having an "undershooting" b wave followed by a C wave up now, but that is heavily unreliable.

So far, the bullish divergence is not diminished on the 4hr/daily/weekly RSI/MACD, but getting challenged as well.

Moving average wise we lost all support (9/21/50/52 day MA), sell volume is extreme, and seemingly does not want to stop for now.

Even for the yellow route we should see a bounce soon as a wave 4 pullback at a minimum, resistance box added for that, which needs to be adjusted if price goes further to the downside.

Unfortunately the earnings was bad, and the investor/earning call after that was just horrible by the CEO; might be some overreaction for sure.

Trade closed manually

I have closed down all my position with a loss of about ~12%.

Note

Either the yellow wave (3) is in, and then we should now get a wave (4) into the small red resistance box, OR I could count as the yellow circle wave 1 is in, then price should not be able to break above the upper resistance. Further lows are expected though.

Important now would be to have a corrective moves to the upside in 3 waves moves(likely as an abc).

Note

I have added back a white count, BUT be aware, it is extremely fragile. I can now count a small 5 waves up as a DIAGONAL, which is unreliable, so it has to prove itself. In order now the white to play out, 9.59 cannot be broken sustained and comfortable.

Yellow is still in play heavily, in fact, it has more weight still, and likely we are forming the yellow circle wave 2 now before dropping deeper down.

Note

Recieved a few DM if the top is in for either white wave (1) or yellow circle wave 2?
Not neccessarly, it can still extend higher if it wants. Maybe 1 or less likely 2 more smaller swing high could still be in play, it would still fit for both (white and yellow) route.

Note

Not much changed, we are still in the red resistance area, price action suffering to go higher, and so far we are only having a 3 count move to the upside, which would fit perfectly for the yellow route. It is likely unfinished, meaning, still could push higher.

For the white route in its current format it would need to be a diagonal in a diagonal I believe, which is heavily unreliable, but there is a slim probability for that. It is not invalidated, but my primarly is definetely the yellow route.

RSI/MACD is turning downside again, converging but not yet diverged, 9day MA so far holding up, but the higher ones and the structural resistance and the red fib resistance area pushing price action down.

Note

Still within the resistance area, and still not looking impulsive to the upside (only if it is some form of a diagonal maybe, but it is not reliable yet), and would fit the yellow route still nice!

I have added a short position therefore, BUT I am still bullish overall.

Note

The yellow in its current format invalidated, support (orange box), and resistance (red box) updated. The challenge for the white count is that it is absolutely not looking impulsive, but lets give it a chance in its current format. COULD be some kind of overall diagonal to the upside forming.

Note

We got rejected on the 200day MA, and for the white count it is too choppy and overlapping. Likely I need to modify the counts a bit due to this, no major change so far though. Our support and resistance still in effect. Wish You All Happy Holidays!

Note

Shorter timeframe updated. In order the white to play out, it should be primarly a leading diagonal (hence the choppyness). I have adjusted the counts according to that.

Support box adjusted. Yellow & orange (previously purple, but was hardly visible) still in play.

Note

Short update: still no major change. So far the small orange support fib box still holding. Some possible micro-count added.

Note

White route getting heavily challenged now. Also by the looks of it we have 5 waves down likely as a diagonal, suggesting/shifting probabilities now even more to the yellow. Now the orange route starting to gain some (but not yet meaningful) traction.

Note

WBD trying to bottom and it is heavily challenging for it. Still struggling so far, although neither route is invalidated YET. For me it still seems following the yellow route.

Trade active

Scaling back in for the B wave (yellow) upside, for long @ 9.50 -> 1st small amount added

Trade active

Scaling back in, @ 8.32 ->2nd small amount added

Note

White route is invalidated I think it is clear. So far yellow is still holding up quiet well. However, the challenge is now, this move "up" is far from an impulse, in fact looking quiet the opposite. Is it invalidated? No. But I would not be suprised to fall deeper before having a more meaningful correction.

However. IF (huge IF) we start to fall deeper below 8.25-ish levels, then also the yellow count is getting challenged. Then the orange is gaining momentum, which we do NOT track so far just keeping half-an-eye on.

Trade active

Scaling back in @8.19 & @8.13 -> 3rd small batch added

Trade active

4th small batch added @ 8.06

Note

I have added 2 possible micro-count, just be aware it is very fragile.
So far we have 3 waves up on the hourly, added a wave 4 pullback fib box.

Alternatively, we have an "a" wave up, so the bottom bigger fib box is the support for the b wave pullback. That box should hold for the yellow.

Trade closed manually

Closed @ 9.14. 32% profit made. Waiting for further pullback to re-enter.

Note

I think we near the top of a resistance (0.618 extension - red line, then the falling dotted top-channel line, and also structural resistance), of course price can extend higher, then we need to adjust the orange support fib box.

Thats for either a wave2 or for the b wave pullback in which case the 0.786 should hold.

Trade active

Scaling back in @ 8.97

Trade active

Scaling back in @ 8.60

Trade active

Scaling back in @ 8.48

Trade active

Scaling back in @ 8.40

Note

Some micro-count added, just be aware it is fragile. Added a very small fib box support area to finish off now white wave (1).

Note

Likelyness growing for the yellow c (b). Under 8.21 likelyness growing for a new overall low, before going up.

Trade active

Scaling back in 2x @ 8.28

Trade active

Scaling back in 2X @ 8.23

Trade active

Scaling back in 2X @ 8.17

Note

The previous (1)-(2) setup has been invalidated, but price still holding support, essentially moving sideways, Shouuld it drop comfortably below 8.15 USD, before going above 9.30 USD, would open the door for one more abc down structure for the yellow route.

So far it could be in the white a wxy as a wave circle 2, but be aware those are rare.

Note

Breakout so far happened. Lets see if it is just a "fakeout" or a valid one. Remember it could now only be a wxy with that pullback, BUT it held support... 50/50

Also, be aware, so far we have only 3 count on the micro-structure with this breakout, so a small pullback would be imminent to complete a small wave 4 and then shoot a bit higher for a wave 5. This is not on the chart, since make no sense YET. The bigger road is sketched out either white/yellow/ orange.

Note

Early warning: That seemingly was a fakeout. If price falls now below 8.22, I would say we need to be prepared (as a second early sign) price likely visit primarly the 7.70 - 7.80- ish area trying to find support there.

Still would be acceptable for the yellow route, just be aware it puts more weigh then to the orange route.

Note

Meanwhile I have sketched out the orange, just in case.
If no bounce at around the 7.94 - 7.98, then probabilities shifting heavily to orange.

Trade active

Scaling back-in 2x @ 7.60
Also we need to shift our focus to the orange route.

Trade active

Scaling back-in 2x @ 7.38
Now I wait and witness.

Note

Between 7.06 and 7.37 we should witness a bounce, preferably not making a sustained break below 7.24. I have left a yellow count (adjusted), but be aware orange is having more weight now.

In the orange, we should get a wave (4) correction into resistance (which needed to be adjusted if we dip lower), and primarly I would expect a last leg down, also as an abc structure.

Note

Microcount speculation (highly fragile) for still the yellow wave, IN CASE we would directly drop lower. Now, I do have an other count where yellow also has finished with the huge abc, and within c we could have technicly all the needed 5 waves down. Now it is becoming interesting, we need to comfortably then break resistances, and all pullbacks need to hold the support areas and not having sustained breaks to the downside meanwhile.

Trade active

Scaling back-in 2x @ 7.66

Note

Chances for the yellow to drop lower now very very slim so I have removed that.

The price actions of previous several days are tremendiously challenging on the micro-level, as literally there are still 6-7 possibilities, which I am trying to track and took the 3 most probable outcome, white and orange. White having a sub-option which I am tracking as blue, but on the bigger scale it should NOT matter.

Long story short: the fib box should hold now for all scenarios on the near term between 8.03 and 7.39. Price does NOT have to pull back to theese levels, BUT theese are the support levels for a possibly soon arriving pullback.

Be aware, if price now goes higher I need to adjust the support box to the upside.

Bit more detailed: Price action fighting around the 50/52 day SMA, so far we are above the 9day SMA and 21day EMA, which likely to provide at least temporary supports later. The 180/200 day still far away, so it does not interferee for likely a while.

We COULD deal with an undershooting b wave (orange), OR it could be the 5th wave of the previous yellow route to finish off the downmovement, therefore I am tracking from that lows fib levels and extensions and targets, while trying to count movements to the upside as a starting point. Even than the challenge is it is likely would be some shape of a diagonal, as constantly morphing between 3 count and 5 count moves. In the ultra-micro-short term I might see it to hit 8.72-8.92 before the pullback would arrive.

Trade active

50/52 day + hourly support SMA (wave 4 target) scaling back in X2 @ 8.39

Trade active

21day EMA + wave 4 target 2 scaling back in X2 @ 8.19

Trade active

Scaling back-in X2 @ 8.03 (0.382 levels)

Trade active

Scaling back-in X2 @ 7.76 (orange B 1st downtarget, between 0.5 - 1.618)

Note

So far no major change as support levels (yellow fib box) is holding. Just a very-early headsup: seemingly we already have a 5 wave down, altough I could count as the needed circle B (orange) pullback / white wave (2) pullback as a 3 wave move with an irregular flat, so very indecisive. The point is therefore the support area to hold.

It can be also a bigger "sideway-ish" correction seemingly leaving the fib box, but then reentering.

Because of the 5 wave down, and also because a few DM-ed me want to short it, i put back a possible yellow route, essentially price then should not break above the resistance area; above 8.30 I would be skeptical about the yellow heavily.

Note

*8.45 is the last reliable short setup for a yellow 1-2 setup within the yellow c of (v) of (5) of C . For the orange/white the fib box should hold now.

Note

No major change, wbd tried twice a breakout, which so far failed, we even had a fakeout. short sellers turned back on the last accceptable 1-2 setup(yellow route), however we are holding support still, so ranging still.

White getting less likely, Orange and yellow still more probable. A sustained break below 7.39 would put way more emphasize to the yellow route, which would postpone the bottoming, likely visiting $6 region as a first target.

Trade active

Scaling back-in X2 @ 7.48 (0.786 levels)

Note

Current white route invalidated. Yellow gained heavy probabilities now, in fact I would primarly expect to play that route out. Technicly the orange is not invalidated but it is a hopium route now. It can turn out to be an irregular flat structure, but probabilities are very very slim. Simply cut too deep. Also it has to go above 9.35 now to have it "validated", BUT be aware that might be already very near to a top for it, so...

Shorters/sellers doing a great job so far.

Note

So far I can identify a 3 count move only as well to the downside, and previously we had a 3 count move to the upside. It can still be an "undershooting" b wave in the overall wave 4 correction to the "upside". In order for that to be still valid we should not really drop below 6.78.

More likely however, we are in the yellow scenario, in which so far I think we are in wave circle 3 already in wave c of (5) of (C) of 5 of big C of huge wave 2 or wave B. Overall long term, decade view idea is not changing, the risk/reward is getting excellent.

On the Daily we are building a nice divergence on the MACD/RSI, should it hold it supports more the orange route, on the weekly its not yet present, which supports more the yellow route. MA's are quiet weak for now, we are below all meaningful ones.

Currently we are in a "no-mans land". It has now a lot to prove for the orange route, several resistances upcoming.

Note

I have simplified the chart a bit. Now we do have a chance for reversal, either as per the orange, where we go up from the lows as an irregular flat (undershooting b wave), OR I could count a truncated wave 5, altough the upside momentum so far is not convincing enough, but not invalid.

Yellow would suggest we are putting in the wave circle 4 now to the top for that the next fib box as a resistance should not be broken in a sustained way.
Breaking above that, and breaking above the yellow dotted falling trendline would drasticly lower the chance of the yellow route; and taking out 8.80 would invalidate it complelety, leaving the orange and this possible white only.

Important for the orange and white NOT to have an other low, otherwise the white is resetting.

Note

Now this is definetely looking something interesting, impulsive, fast paced, so not something like a correction or a bigger diagonal would do. This behaviour is typical for a wave 3, it just fits, also it has reached the 200% extension so far.

Now, a wave 4 pullback should arrive, and in fact it might have started already, the small yellow support box added for that, which then should not break for the white. For the orange count it can break, and the bigger fib box below that becoming relevant in that case.

I marked with small dotted lines the possible (but not too probable) upward extensions still for the wave 3, if it wants to climb higher, those are the levels to watch, but be aware, then we need to adjust the support levels as those are moving areas now.

Recieved a DM if the lows could be in overall: early to tell, thats the white count, but still a lot to prove, as so far it is only a 3 count move up still. We would need a bigger 5 up, completing a bigger wave 1, and then a 3 count pullback to a later support zone, which holds.

Note

I have added some micro-support/micro count; as long as the previous swing low is not taken out, further upside could be possible, just less probable now. For that, the next level to watch would be:
9.07 -> 1.382 big extension for the orange C wave, also a wave 3 common target.
9.17; 9.40 -> further smaller extension for the blue-ish, which just an extension for white wave (3)
9.46 -> 1.618 big extension for orange C; wave 3 common target
9.59; 9.67 -> further direct extension for orange C wave, highly extended wave 3 (getting less likely it is a wave 3), also the start of the resistance for orange wave (iv) topping.

Note

Price started a sudden downtrend, on which likely the lose of the NBA rights was a catalizator.

Now, the primarly support box (smallest) already failed, which would have allowed an extended overall circle wave 1 to the upside.
What we do have left:
-modified white route, but fragile!!! For that the lower support box must hold from 7.70 being the 0.618 retracement, down to 7.38, if thats failing the next support is 7.25 for a possible turnaround, but that is already unreliable (hopium)

-orange route, where goes to a wave iv top, it is an abc, where we likely still in the a wave, within that we are in a smaller abc, exactly in the c wave being 5 waves, but we need a 4-5, and likely we are in the wave 4 now, for that to still be valid, price cannot have a sustained break below 7.66.

-new yellow route, i just added yesterday after the horrible routes, which shiftes the wavecounts to the right, meaning, the previous runup was a yellow wave (iv) hence the only 3 wave move to the upside, and it has started the downtrend to complete wave 5, and we are in the very very early stages. For that 6.99 must break to the downside.

Note

We have reached a first acceptable upside target from the orange wave circle 4 low or for a white route a possible smaller degree wave 1 top. Now, for me, the upside movement seems unfinished on the smaller degree, it has reached the 100% extension, this could be the technicly the top of the "a" wave within orange wave 5, or as a diagonal the top of wave white (1) within wave circle 3 to the upside.

I would love the price though to at least reach the 1.382 extension (dotted white line), that would be an optimal target, or even the 1.618 extension, which would be a substantial ideal target.

I have added a support box (yellow) just in case the b wave/wave 2 sequence wants to start already.

I recieved a DM about we already have 5 waves up, well... yes and no, ETH is important as well, and we made only a marginally new high on RTH. Hence it would be great to reach the next targets before a pullback, otherwise it is really up for debate.

The white support fib box (bigger one) is a moving box; it is for later pullback, as we climb higher it needs to be adjusted, this is in its current states the pullback area for the orange b or wave circle white 2, in case its unfinished. So those are later possible scaling-in areas. BUT again! It is a moving support area!

The 200day/180day MA getting really close, to around 9.16-9.25 it will be interesting. Other moving averages (9/21/50/52) are below us, likely would act as a support, and turning upside. No gap below us, all was filled.

Note

Orange is getting unreliable. Not (yet) invalidated, but not reliable anymore with the today's price and volume action. It has only a 3 count move to the upside, but already cut back too deep to consider it as a wave 4. Could be a WXY though as the "a" wave up being an irregular flat, and now we are working on the b wave.

We also still have the truncated low scenario, white, although so far there is no sign of bottoming other than we had a reaction at the 0.618 levels.

I have mapped out the yellow route just in case, but be aware, it is a rough sketch only, where we have not even finished its yellow subwave "a".

Note

Early warning: 5 waves down has been formed, which usually suggests further, more meaningful downside after some correction. Also yesterday/todays price /volume action suggesting (no guarantee) further downside incoming. This would put emphasize on the yellow route.

Note

That warning was meaningful in fact. I would call this earnings a catastrophic one. So it cut through the support box like the butter. Now, the only remaning upside momentum for the short term i have if the orange wave (iv) is an expanding triangle, so far it has 3 waves everywhere, so could fit.

However. Taking into consideration the reports, earnings, and that now they are trying also to get potential buyers for many of their assets (PL landlines, gaming division, possibly CNN), combined with the suprise impairment charge ~9billion as an other loss, hearing the investor calls and being very shady, dodging most critical questions, I think the chances are slim for the orange. White route of course got invalidet immediately.

Now, this would mean, likely it will take longer (likely much longer) to have it turned around, as the original idea mentioned a possible huge 1-2 setup, with an overshooting b wave, we need to shift it to a huge A-B setup, and allow a way deeper pullback likely. The yellow would be our primary count now.

Circle A wave likely have not even bottomed yet, which is just part of a bigger "a" wave, which, in best case scenario would complete yellow wave (v) somewhere around the 5USD -ish area IF there wont be any extension, otherwise could go the 3-4 usd levels.

Scaling in at those levels could still fit for the overall view (remember we are talking here about several years overall, if not a decade), however even from an investor standpoint this company today became questionable especially during the earnings call.

I have adjusted the red resistance box according to the actions, for a possible circle B wave; should it have a sustained break above it, then likely the orange wave (iv) playing out, but I would not hold a breath.

Note

Resistance adjusted

Note

We have reached the 0.5 fib resistence level for the yellow count. Now for sure, it can extend higher, on the micro the structure is not crystal clear. A blue micro-count added as well, just to track further possible direct upside.

For now, from the bottom this is still a 3 count move. As long as we do not have at least 5 waves up, above the resistance zone then a 3 count pullback which is HOLDING support later, yellow is the primary count. (For now i see very low probabilities for that); Technicly it is possible (someone asked me) that the yellow route wave (v) was very very short, again, very low probabilities for that.

Bullish divergence has been formed, present on the daily/4hr yes, just be aware it already happened twice during the past several month, which ultimately was destroyed.

Note

Providing an update, since I am recieving a lot of DM.
Yes, so from the lows POSSIBLY we do have now a micro 5 wave up (although I could count it in a 3 wave move as well, but anyway). So which levels to watch for the bulls on ultra-near term: white fib box, meaning, AS LONG AS any pullbacks happen, which is a corrective structure, AND no falling below 6.91 USD, there is possibility for further upside. Be aware, it absolutely does not mean, that the ultimate lows are in, in fact I still do think it is the yellow route, just maybe it gonna expand time wise, and to a bigger correction.

For the yellow: as long as there is no comfortable, sustained break above 8.64 USD, (overshoot even possible till 8.85 -> 8.95 area), it is the yellow. and the next targets are the yellow dotted lines, or in between (I know it is messed up, unfortunately it is what it is now, bulls failed to execute the previous great opportunity): 6.17, then 5.46, then 4.47

For the orange: white box should hold as well for a while, and MUST take out 9.02 USD minimally, and in case it wants to expand to the upside, it can, up till the bigger red box, 10.40 is possible, and even 11.30 is possible, but way-way less likely, technicly would be valid, but cant have a sustained, comfortable break above 11.30, and should happen overall in a big 3 wave structure now.

For the white (least probable): we HAVE to break above 9.30 in a bigger 5 wave structure, and CANNOT break sustained below the white small fib box now at 6.91. Like never. If it does (which highly likely), then white is out again. So this micro 5-wave up what we have now would be a bigger scale wave (1) out of five. It needs to manifest now of the bigger timeframes, Which then would create an even bigger wave 1, which ultimately, overall NEEDS then to break above 11.30 in a 5 WAVE STRUCTURE, with corrective pullbacks. Until it not happens, we are not out of the woods, and it can be easily and expanding triangle with a last leg expanded as well to the upside. So now it is really tricky.

Note

No new update, in fact, yellow got declined exactly one of the latest point where it needs to be, further downside expected in this point. Again, until 11.30 is not breaking to the upside in a sustained way, with 5 waves forming, the lows are likely NOT in. Original idea of the post has not changed though, for investors this is a great opportunity, just be aware, it could drop still % wise quiet a lot before turning around.

Note

Update: no major change. Yes, we briefly struck above the major resistance zone; not a sustained break (so far), therefore it fits still the yellow. Make no mistake, it tries to bottom, clear signs are there, its just so far the bulls was too weak not grabbing possible opportunities.
So far i tend to "believe" it was/is an abc up as just the yellow circle B wave, still valid, in fact I could count 5-3-5 if I a bit force to.

Its more like a "where are we now" update, I dont trust the upside momentu; we would need to break above 8.95 for me to consider to drop the yellow route; BUT there is still the orange expanded triangle option then, so the chart has a lot to prove.

I removed the previous support zone and put a new one just in case its the orange/white (orange: one more swingdown with new lows, white: one more swingdown with NO new lows)

For the bullish case it would be great to put in a marginally new high before coming down to the support area, but not neccessary. Therefore the support fib area is the make or break point in my eyes.

Trade active

Scaling back 2X @ 7.28 for long

Note

Not much to add, huge ongoing fight on the bigger timeframes, so far, simply the bulls is too weak, unable to meaningfully turn it around and take on the needed levels. Huge short volume flowing in as well (options). So far, the box is holding, and literally can be 6-7 different route/scenario. For the bulls, the box should hold, although I must say, this looks to me as a 5 wave down complete, so I would say the yellow still has a higher probability.

Remember: we need 5 waves up on the bigger timeframe, where price action taking out sustained the 11.38 levels.

tommtajlor

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.