Wheat: Megaphone down wave vs impending Golden Cross
On wheat's daily chart, the rally appears to have completed 5 Elliot waves up. Bearish fundamentals of current ample supply may now play out in an ABC correction, though how deep with a La Nina expected to affect Russia it remains to be seen.
Beyond an ABC correction, it's possible to consider that said bearish fundamentals may see an impulse all the way down to the lower megaphone structure line. The problem with this scenario is the time it would take to get down there. If La Nina is to play a part this Northern hemisphere growing season, then it's affects on the market will be felt sooner.
The probability a drop that significant may be further weakened by the impending Golden Cross of the daily 50MA crossing up over the 200MA. TA indicators like this may not yet reflect bearish current fundamentals of supply, but make sense in terms of the pricing in of a La Nina event.
Not financial advice; trade at your own risk.
Beyond an ABC correction, it's possible to consider that said bearish fundamentals may see an impulse all the way down to the lower megaphone structure line. The problem with this scenario is the time it would take to get down there. If La Nina is to play a part this Northern hemisphere growing season, then it's affects on the market will be felt sooner.
The probability a drop that significant may be further weakened by the impending Golden Cross of the daily 50MA crossing up over the 200MA. TA indicators like this may not yet reflect bearish current fundamentals of supply, but make sense in terms of the pricing in of a La Nina event.
Not financial advice; trade at your own risk.
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