8/13/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
WRBY
Still no thanks at $13. maybe 10.
- good brand
- but moat is more brand related than product related (opine if you think differently)
- stock in a tough discretionary environment. if u don't need a new pair... you can wait. this isn't toilet paper.
- really dislike how much stock comp in this co's FCF calculation it's nearly 80-100 mm depending on the year. for a stock that's up and to the right, that's fine, but this one isn't. so therefore this isn't real "free cash flow", it's an expense to shareholders (dare i say bagholders)
- EVEN IF the above weren't an issue. what would i pay for something maybe coming from zero EPS to positive and growing from 2024 onward at 25-30%? at most in today's tape... 35x. that's what i can buy a cash machine growing at this level with better margins called $CELH. that's my denominator in all consumer stock considerations (divide $WRBY/
CELH) just like in all tech decision i divide by 
NVDA and $BTCUSDT...
-... so at 35x on '25 EPS (let's assume it's right at 31c) that's round up $11/shr.
- so again. tough environment. stock weak in strong tape. financials don't entice me with respect to stock comp. i need a discount. i'm happy to let it go here if it just lingers in the low teens and eventually goes higher. i can always buy it going higher w more conviction. but i lack that conviction rn.
- will re assess closer to $10.
V
WRBYStill no thanks at $13. maybe 10.
- good brand
- but moat is more brand related than product related (opine if you think differently)
- stock in a tough discretionary environment. if u don't need a new pair... you can wait. this isn't toilet paper.
- really dislike how much stock comp in this co's FCF calculation it's nearly 80-100 mm depending on the year. for a stock that's up and to the right, that's fine, but this one isn't. so therefore this isn't real "free cash flow", it's an expense to shareholders (dare i say bagholders)
- EVEN IF the above weren't an issue. what would i pay for something maybe coming from zero EPS to positive and growing from 2024 onward at 25-30%? at most in today's tape... 35x. that's what i can buy a cash machine growing at this level with better margins called $CELH. that's my denominator in all consumer stock considerations (divide $WRBY/
CELH) just like in all tech decision i divide by NVDA and $BTCUSDT...-... so at 35x on '25 EPS (let's assume it's right at 31c) that's round up $11/shr.
- so again. tough environment. stock weak in strong tape. financials don't entice me with respect to stock comp. i need a discount. i'm happy to let it go here if it just lingers in the low teens and eventually goes higher. i can always buy it going higher w more conviction. but i lack that conviction rn.
- will re assess closer to $10.
V
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.