Decision time for crude oil
Crude oil was little-changed in early trade this morning, with a slight downside bias. This follows on from Tuesday’s sell-off which saw front-month WTI continue to pull back from Monday’s peak, just above $78 per barrel. This marked a near two-month high for WTI and represented the top of an 18% rally from the lows seen less than a week previously. Just one month before that, front-month WTI had briefly broken below $65 per barrel to mark its lowest level since May 2023. This was also notable for oil being more oversold than in nearly a year, according to the daily MACD. The rally since then has been sharp. While the escalation in hostilities across the Middle East can be viewed as a trigger, crude was already in a very precarious position, with a large number of short sellers weighing on prices. Ultimately, many have been forced to cover, thereby giving additional energy to the rally. Now the market will show us whether it is about to recommence its downside trend, or if the current move is a small pullback before there’s more of a rally. Yesterday the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced a downward revision to its outlook for global oil demand, citing weaker manufacturing growth and industrial production from both the US and China. Add in the fact that China is switching away from oil and towards natural gas as an energy source, and it would suggest that crude prices may remain under pressure.
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