Short

WTI War Party

Updated

Saudi-led OPEC and its allies agreed to a larger-than-expected increase in oil production, potentially allowing Riyadh to pump more crude. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia agreed to extend a two-month-old cease-fire in Yemen with Iran-backed Houthi fighters.

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Aramco is the world's largest corporation, and they want lower crude prices.

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Pro Tip: Central banks all over the world are aiming for inflation with unlimited ammunition under the guise of national security.

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Crude demand is suffocated by higher interest rates.

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Food for thought: The initial drop in oil prices from mid-2014 to early 2015 was primarily due to supply factors such as booming US oil production, fading geopolitical concerns, and shifting OPEC policies. However, deteriorating demand prospects also played a role, particularly between mid-2015 and early 2016. This helps to explain why the drop in oil prices did not result in an immediate boost to global activity.

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For inventories to "finally normalize by late 2023," global oil prices would need to average $135 per barrel for a year beginning in July.
- the analysts

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Something must happen to cause a 500,000 b/d drop in global crude demand to rebalance the market.

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hourly evening star candlestick pattern on 6/14

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weekly evening star candlestick pattern on 6/18

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6/17 WTI entered into a downtrend on the daily supertrend indicator

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According to CFTC data, retail traders are now the most net-long since December 22, when WTI was trading near $73 per barrel. We usually take a contrarian approach to crowd sentiment, and the fact that traders are net-long suggests that WTI prices will continue to fall.

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hourly evening star candlestick pattern on 6/29

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Crossing the monthly belkhayte timing zero line into negative territory.
HYG correlation with crude is as negative as in 2019-2020.

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Higher prices will always encourage additional production. In a contracting market, this will drive down prices, and any deliberate attempts to cut production in order to raise prices will simply backfire.

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Iran is lowering its crude prices in order to gain market share.

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long positions are increasing

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U.S. commercial crude-oil inventories surprisingly increased last week, while gasoline stockpiles also rose.

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"If you have a milkshake and I have a milkshake and my straw reaches across the room, I'll end up drinking your milkshake."
-Senator Albert Fall

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Any cut to crude output will prolong depression. Cutting production cuts growth. Checkmate for the Autocrats.

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Saudi's need money.

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The straw that broke the camel's back.

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German industry stopped buying gas and power forwards, or hedging . Companies assert that either prices will decrease. Or they'll stop producing.

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OPEC cut growth. There will be less oil and lower prices.

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The Department of Energy says its plan to restock US emergency oil supply after fiscal 2023.

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OPEC cutting more growth.

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looking for profit at $60, $40, $20

UnknownUnicorn6395641

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