Long

Updated

Sell the pullback, buy the trend - WTI OIL

If you look at Oil on a weekly, daily and 4h timeframe, it's seriously divergent, fewer traders are long oil as it's climbed, very likely due to its manipulation by geopolitics and we're getting closer to the 61.8% fib level @76.83, bigger traders, hedge funds, and institutions are already in the trade from 30-40+.

This is causing much deeper pullbacks when new highs are reached, so we're selling the pullback into two zones, either 71 (it will bounce here) or deeper down to 68 for a move up towards 76.83. If you're not in the trade already around 75, wait for a pullback towards 74 and reduce your margin to reduce the risk, or be patient and wait for the price action signal to go long, things can change rapidly on WTI especially if Donald has twitter in is his pocket.

Stops above 75, calculate risk first, then profit ratio.

Trade active

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We're clearly bullish Crude, but rising into 61.8% fib, there is major global pressure for higher oil prices (Russia etc) and with fewer players being taken out of the loop, Iran, Venezuela etc, this creates fake shortages (there is plenty of the black stuff), it should be half the price, but we trade what we see, not what we assume or think is going to happen.

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Reasonable move down after higher than expected Crude inventory, we're looking for a continuous rejection of the red zone and the buyers to exhaust and that will send Crude Oil lower. I'm already in the trade as stated above.

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Red box gone; now to rest the support 73 if that goes, we're down to 72, 71 and then 69 and 67 again. I'm not sure we're going that low unless there is the political will and geopolitical support to pump more oil per day, Saudi states they're happy to provide 2 million more barrels per day.

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We're on course for the first target down at 71, regardless what Donald says, the cost of Crudie is too high in this marketplace, there has to be a correction lower to bring in more buyers, the higher time frames expose the dramatically reduced volumes as these prices.

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We bounced at 72.2 backup to the trendline and have so far respected it, we're now moving sideways, I still feel a pullback is needed to bring in the bulls in the absence of any serious Oil driving news, especially with the surprising Crude numbers.

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Oil finally broke to the downside, only been waiting a week

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Rocketed straight back up....

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From a technical perspective and historically; price cannot go higher without a deep pullback towards the center line of the channel. Fundamentally, we know Crude is manipulated, more than most assets, but it's still in their interests to allow a short term price reduction to bring in the buyers.

Trade closed: target reached

Profits taken on WTI, left 10% to ride in case we do go down to the center line, remember we are in an uptrend, this is simply trading the pullback and then waiting for a buy signal.

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Looking at the daily chart on Crude, it's hard to believe its going to do anything but go down.

I'd be looking to sell again, anywhere above 72

Trade closed: target reached

Only 5% of my trade left on this one, still looking for the centre line before the bulls come back in. I've been asked why I take profits on the way down and not let it ride, with Forex I do tend to do that, but when an instrument is as volatile as oil, anything can happen and therefore its best to take profits when I can.

Trade active

Sold Oil down, now time to buy it back-up, we have a big unknown on the inventory tomorrow, so be aware of that.

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Should crude break the 65-66 zone and the strong bull uptrend, then we’ll be looking at a bearish trend change and lots a long way down.

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Crude has traded lower overnight with a sideways move as we approach todays daily inventories.

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Ok, we had some good numbers out of Crude today, which drove price slightly higher. I feel the bulls will start coming back in now and we're right at the next level of resistance.

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Nice big move up, it's been building since Monday. Look for a pullback around 68 or a bounce off the moving average, My target is back to the highs at 74.

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We shot straight past that one, two new pullback zones, the orange dotted line is the centre line of the long-term bull channel, break through that and hold it and we're going back to the highs again

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The bulls are back and well into profit, buy at the 69 pullback

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Here's the big picture on Crude, should we close with that Pin bar candle, then we have continued with the Bull trend.

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We're range bound into the 3rd quiet Friday of July, look for a pullback into the rising trend line, and we want to see some strength following through to the weekly high at 68.8 and either break through it, or pullback and break through.

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If that trend line is broken, do not buy, wait for a pullback again and there maybe a selling opportunity back down towards 66

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The bulls are back

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Crude is pulling back, that'll bring in more buyers driving CAD higher.

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Still in the trade since July 17th, having sold Crude down, we're now following the Bulls up to the highs, very nice that the inventories came in 3.5 shorter than expected bring the buyers back to the table.

I'm expecting a pullback to around 69 - 70 where I will add another position if the market is right, this is your entry if you've not executed the trade.

CBMotivation

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CBMotivation

Also on:

Related publications

How to enter a trade at the right time!

by CBMotivation