WTI Oil Short: Bearish Setup After Sharp Rally
Oil prices have surged impressively, fueled by recent fundamental-driven market moves. However, this swift upside has led WTI crude to my point of interest, offering a prime opportunity to short against the trend. My trade strategy includes taking partials at the $74 price zone. Here’s why this setup is supported by bearish fundamentals:
1. Rising U.S. Fuel Inventories
Recent data shows significant growth in U.S. gasoline and distillate stockpiles, hinting at a potential oversupply in the market.
2. Strengthening U.S. Dollar
A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing global demand and weighing on prices.
3. Increased Non-OPEC Supply
With rising production levels from non-OPEC countries, analysts expect an oversupplied market in 2025, adding further pressure on oil prices.
4. Weakening Global Demand
Economic growth concerns in major markets like China and Germany are fostering expectations of reduced oil demand, reinforcing a bearish outlook.
These combined factors strongly support a short position on WTI crude oil. Stay strategic, take profits along the way, and manage your risk carefully in this volatile environment!
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
1. Rising U.S. Fuel Inventories
Recent data shows significant growth in U.S. gasoline and distillate stockpiles, hinting at a potential oversupply in the market.
2. Strengthening U.S. Dollar
A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing global demand and weighing on prices.
3. Increased Non-OPEC Supply
With rising production levels from non-OPEC countries, analysts expect an oversupplied market in 2025, adding further pressure on oil prices.
4. Weakening Global Demand
Economic growth concerns in major markets like China and Germany are fostering expectations of reduced oil demand, reinforcing a bearish outlook.
These combined factors strongly support a short position on WTI crude oil. Stay strategic, take profits along the way, and manage your risk carefully in this volatile environment!
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Note
The position is progressing well, currently sitting at 3% profit. The first critical support lies in the 73-75 price area, making this zone essential for the next decision point.
The slow drop in price isn’t ideal for my trading style, as it indicates potential for a retracement to the entry point. Depending on how the price reacts in this zone, I’ll decide whether to close manually or leave a small portion running to play out the move.
Patience and adaptability remain key!
Trade active
The price has tested the 0.7 FibCloud, triggering some buying activity in this critical $73-$75 psychological zone—a level where many retail traders are likely entering long positions.
Currently, the position stands at 6.6% profit, a solid gain. However, this zone will be decisive. I’ll monitor closely, and if I observe signs of a significant reversal or weakness, I’ll cut the position entirely to secure the profit.
The market is at a pivotal point—adaptability and timely decisions are key.
Note
Secured 85% of my position at 71.3, locking in a solid 9% profit. I’ve also adjusted my SL to 76.2 to fully secure the trade, making it a risk-free position from here.
Key Reminder:
Stay sharp this trading week—political events and data releases could drive unexpected volatility.
Pay yourself and manage wisely!
Trade closed manually
Fully exited the oil trade at 70.6 after 30 days in this swing position. With only 4% left to TP, the probability of a bullish reversal from this level is higher than a continued move down.
Secured profits and locked in gains—no need to overstay. Pay yourself and move on! Have a great trading week!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.