Factors Affecting Silver’s Trade Directional Bias Next Week
Fed Policy and Rate Cuts:
Market Expectations: Two Fed rate cuts in 2025 are priced in, but uncertainty over timing (e.g., June vs. earlier) may cause volatility.
Impact: Delayed cuts → USD↑, silver↓; Accelerated cuts → USD↓, silver↑.
Industrial Demand:
Supply-Demand Imbalance: A projected 149M oz deficit in 2025 due to high demand for solar, electronics, and EVs.
Supply Risks: Q1 production growth (+15.4% YoY) has eased short-term pressure, but long-term deficits support prices.
Safe-Haven Demand:
Geopolitical Risks: Trade wars (Trump’s April 2 tariffs) and Middle East tensions could boost silver as a hedge.
Gold’s Influence:
Gold-to-Silver Ratio: At 88:1, below historical peaks, suggesting silver may outperform gold if the ratio normalizes.
Conclusion
Bearish Bias Likely Next Week:
Resistance Test: Silver faces strong technical resistance at overbought territory, favoring profit-taking.
Fed Uncertainty: Delayed rate cuts or USD strength could pressure prices toward $32.50.
Upside Catalysts: A break above strong supply roof or geopolitical escalation (tariffs) may trigger a rally to a new all time high
Fed Policy and Rate Cuts:
Market Expectations: Two Fed rate cuts in 2025 are priced in, but uncertainty over timing (e.g., June vs. earlier) may cause volatility.
Impact: Delayed cuts → USD↑, silver↓; Accelerated cuts → USD↓, silver↑.
Industrial Demand:
Supply-Demand Imbalance: A projected 149M oz deficit in 2025 due to high demand for solar, electronics, and EVs.
Supply Risks: Q1 production growth (+15.4% YoY) has eased short-term pressure, but long-term deficits support prices.
Safe-Haven Demand:
Geopolitical Risks: Trade wars (Trump’s April 2 tariffs) and Middle East tensions could boost silver as a hedge.
Gold’s Influence:
Gold-to-Silver Ratio: At 88:1, below historical peaks, suggesting silver may outperform gold if the ratio normalizes.
Conclusion
Bearish Bias Likely Next Week:
Resistance Test: Silver faces strong technical resistance at overbought territory, favoring profit-taking.
Fed Uncertainty: Delayed rate cuts or USD strength could pressure prices toward $32.50.
Upside Catalysts: A break above strong supply roof or geopolitical escalation (tariffs) may trigger a rally to a new all time high
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.