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Silver Almost Ready To Run Part II

Updated

Since it`s top in may silver has been in corrective mode. I exited my last trade on April 14 close to the top and have been on the sidelines since then – see my last idea. In my opinion the correction is nearing its end.

Looking at gold I expect this next upcycle to be even more aggressive then the last. I´m not in the camp of the triple top – to the contrary – I expect gold to break its highs and run. It hasn`t even retraced 38% of it´s upmove (low in Sep 22) and already wasted so many weeks correcting in terms of time. Both very bullish since imo. Market was in need of some breathing so long-term moving averages could catch up.

I would suggest to have exposure to gold and silver. Key is to be patient now and wait for the entry to come. It may take 1-2 more weeks. COT does not look as good as in march yet. I would actually like to see ~21.60 maybe even a marginal break of the red uptrend, which is intact since sep 22. Not sure if we get that low ~22.30 is monthly mid Bollinger. Somewhere in between I will look to buy. Weekly RSI 6 is at ~34 nearing oversold.

Interesting point is that gold has broken its uptrend-line – something that is often necessary for a market to bottom, its when technical traders sell their positions – while silvers uptrend-line is still intact.

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Silver found support at the 200 week MA, good probability low has formed, gold about to break downtrend, opening first positions here

Trade active

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200 day MA is also here, lots of downside support

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Ugly day, there is still the chance that those weekly gaps get closed in gold ~1867, lets see what payrolls bring tomorrow

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Good day, some positive signs
- silver made higher low on daily again, gold too
- both are back above their 10day MA
- gold back above 1921, which is key level = old high from sept 11 and gold also broke downtrend convincingly today

All in all, this looks productive, market needs to get some more upward momentum soon, silver on day 10, gold on day 6 since low but in terms of price not that much happened
One could even argue that silver’s structure right now is similar to what happened between May 26 and June 9th
Still think downtrend break in silver next week is the more likely scenario and then a rather quick move toward ~24$ (=yearly open), holding my longs

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Big picture - monthly chart - Silver is on its way to test this yellow downtrend line again
Once this trendline and 26$ breaks, 28$ - $30 region will be minimum target, might go even higher if gold breaks the triple top
This is the start of a multi-week rally, silver only on week 3

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Silver right at yellow downtrend, chart as a rough idea in terms of price not time
As said, once 26 breaks, there is basically vacuum till 28,20 - 28,50 region
That´s not saying ~28 will be top, keep in mind that gold and silver are in a sideways consolidation since Aug 2020, almost 3 years, a breakout could create very big move similiar to what happend in Gold in mid 2019 when the longterm consolidation broke to the upside

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This yellow downtrend and area between 25-26 really proven to be strong resistance
was expecting a small pullback here but would have been great if silver held above ~24.50 and gold above 1965
Both below their 10 Day MA as of now, clear warning sign that this first upcycle might be coming to an end a little early
That said fed on wednesday will be deciding moment

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Rough day, but as written above there was a warning sign + there was big commercial short position build up in CoT Report in silver also a danger sign

Pretty clear now that the first impulse has most likely topped, earlier than expected for me and there is still some time in terms of cycle length for the correction to run, Gold day 20, Silver day 24 since lows

Worst Case would be a retest of the lows and a completely wasted cycle, on the other hand metals did the minimum 38% retracement already

Definitely Waiting for tomorrow’s price action
Weekly Bollinger Bands in gold and silver are narrowing fast, indicating a dynamic move is coming

Note

Sold today at break of 24, ignored warning signs to long, still small profit but could have been way better
Let´s see, still think the break of this yellow downtrend will come but looks like it might take more time
Looking for reentry if a setup presents

AnRuaN

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Silver Almost Ready To Run

by AnRuaN

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