Long

Long $SLV $XAGUSD for seasonal low into September

Updated

Silver is showing an attempted bottom this week off some important support levels. I am looking to get long between now and the end of this month and hold to September 1.

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The [fitted] performance of silver shows that on average we experience some kind of bottom after the June FOMC and spike into September.

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Gold shows a similar profile but does much better into September.

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On or about September 1-2, the XAU/XAG performance takes off and gold outperforms silver in a big way. We can see this against other assets as well such as XAUAUD.

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Using futures we can actually capitalize on this disparity with a hedge by going long 2 contracts of GC and short 1 contract of SI futures.

With a starting point somewhere around 232000 near July 21 (relative, actual dollar value of the spread) an end point around 272000 in mid September, the total return of this spread is 272000 - 232000 = $40,000.

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My target for this trade in silver spot would be near the Month CAM R3 at 18.75. It may be a multi-month trade (very likely) so this will change in July. The first near term target would be the 21 day Highest close near 18.22.

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Doing beautifully so far.

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Well they did the classic rug pull on the day that the current July SI silver futures on COMEX expires today. The maximum pain level was 18.00 to push all of the call options expiring on June 25 out of the money. No matter, this is in accordance with seasonality that says we should have some kind of a trough at the end of this week or Monday next week.

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Silver is on track to August. This month and up to the July FOMC is where silver outperforms gold so much that you could short a single GC gold contract and long an SI silver contract and still come out profitable in the next 25 days.

Broke the trendline finally today, nearest target up is around 18.000 at the 21 day highest close.

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Added to long on backtest of broken trendline.

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Silver taking a run at it again. July is a pretty choppy month so I am just holding.

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Daily chart complex inverse H/S breakout. First target will be Year CAM R3. We can go much higher to 20.00 no problem.

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I dumped silver here for now.

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Will wait toward July FOMC on the 29th to start getting back in.

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Futures crossed 20.00 today, huge gain.

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You may be shocked, but this had more legs to run to 25-30 by end of year. Very nice day today for silver and platinum, both up 7%.

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Highest 14-RSI daily reading since 2011. This is unsustainable. We topped out on July 22 at a reading of 88.50.

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Silver short squeeze may have killed the rally. With a record 88.50 14-RSI reading not seen since 2011, we may suffer a deep pullback before continuing higher. The key is the breakout itself, which is showing a massive DXY paradigm shift forward.

Trade closed manually

Dumped all positions, started micro SILU2020 shorts at 23.20.

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Because we are in a FED "reset" year, silver has been one of the best assets to be in. This kind of move has only happened in 2010 and 1979.

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I have been in mostly scalps all the way up, and a few shorts when it gets to an extreme. Shorts are dangerous and must be carefully applied.

mortdiggiddy

Find the edge.

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