Silver (XAG/USD) daily chart showing an overall uptrend with recent highs and lows. The chart illustrates key support and resistance levels on the daily timeframe.*
## 1. Trend Analysis
- **Short-Term Trend (Daily/Weekly):** Silver’s daily chart shows a bullish bias. The metal has been trading in an **upward trajectory**, forming higher lows since early February’s pullback (around $30.70) and rebounding toward new highs. It recently briefly dipped below a rising channel, but **remained above short-term supports**, indicating the uptrend is intact. Momentum has only **paused briefly** before buyers stepped in, suggesting the market is still inclined to the upside.
- **Long-Term Trend (Multi-Month):** The broader trend is **decisively bullish**. In 2024, silver **broke above a decade-long range**, rallying approximately 40% and reaching about 335/OZ by October After a consolidation into late 2024 (holding around the low-
30S), the metal resumed its climb in early 2025. Robust fundamentals (strong industrial demand and supply deficits) and safe-haven flows have underpinned this long-term uptrend. Overall, silver continues to print higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart, reflecting a **sustained upward trend**.
## 2. Support and Resistance Levels
**Key Resistance Levels:**
- **$33.40 –** This was the **recent peak** (a four-month high from mid-February) which the price has tested. A break above $33.40 signaled the bulls gaining.
- **$34.20 –** Near-term **upside target** corresponding to the upper boundary of the ascending channel. This level could offer resistance if price continues higher ([Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD breaks below $32.50, support appears at nine-day EMA on 10 March 2025.
- **$35.00 –** Major **psychological resistance** and the approximate high from late 2024. This was the peak of last year’s rally, and the current advance is aiming for this zone. A clear break above $35 would mark a multi-year high and open the door to further upside.
**Key Support Levels:**
- **$33.33 –** Immediate **support on dips**. This level roughly marks the recent breakout area in the low-$33s. Technical analysis indicates there are “plenty of buyers” around $33.33 ready to buy any pullback. Minor pullbacks toward this zone have been met with buying interest, reinforcing it as initial support.
- **$32.35 –** Secondary support from the last consolidation zone (upper $32s). Dips toward $32.3 have also attracted buyers. Notably, this area **aligns with the rising 9-day EMA** (around $32.21), adding technical support. A slide to this region may still find the uptrend intact, but a deeper break could weaken the short-term bullish momentum.
- **$31.60 –** A deeper support level identified from late February price action. If the $32 area were to give way, the next support is around $31.6. This level marks an interim low during the previous consolidation. Traders will watch this level as the **line in the sand** for the short-term uptrend.
- **$30.70 –** **Major support floor**. This was the **early-February low** (a two-month low) and represents a critical pivot. A drop below $30.70 would break the series of higher lows and signify a potential **trend reversal** on the daily chart. Bulls are likely to fiercely defend this level, and only a decisive break beneath it would turn the outlook bearish in the medium term.
## 3. Trade Setups and Strategy
Given the bullish trend and the support/resistance landscape, the preference is to **trade with the uptrend**. Here are potential setups:
- **Buy on Pullbacks:** The current environment favors a “**buy the dips**” approach. Traders could look to **enter long near support** levels around $33.30 or down to $32.3 on a pullback. For instance, if XAG/USD retraces into the $33-$32 zone, that presents a potential entry area. A stop-loss can be placed just **below $32.00** (i.e. under the 9-day EMA and second support) to guard against a deeper correction. The first profit target would be a re-test of the recent highs around **$35.00**. If momentum carries on, an extended target toward the **$36-$37** area is reasonable, since a breakout above $35 could trigger a swift rally higher ([XAG/USD Forecast Today 14/03: Silver Launches Higher. This long setup aligns with the prevailing uptrend and is supported by observable buying interest at those support levels.
- **Bullish Breakout Trade:** An alternative entry is on a **clear breakout above $35.00**. A daily close above $35 would confirm a new high beyond the 2024 peak, likely accelerating bullish momentum. Traders can **buy the breakout** with a stop-loss just below the breached resistance (e.g. under $34 for safety). Above $35, there is relatively **open upside** – a “massive move to the upside” could materialize according to technical observers. One could aim for **$37+** as an initial objective, and even around $40 if the rally extends over the coming weeks. Notably, some analysts project silver prices in the high-30S to $40 range in 2025, so holding a portion of the position for a larger trend follow-through may pay off.
*(At this juncture, shorting silver is contrarian and risky given the strength of the uptrend. Only if price **fails** and closes below major support (like $30.70) would a bearish setup be considered. In such a scenario, a short trade could target the mid-$28s, but this is against the current dominant trend and is not the primary expectation.)*
## 4. Technical Indicators Confirmation
Major technical indicators on the daily chart confirm the bullish bias:
- **Moving Averages (MA):** The **short-term 9-day EMA** and the **50-day EMA** are **sloping upward**, and importantly, price is trading *above* both of these moving averages. This alignment indicates the **uptrend is well-supported**. The fact that silver remains above its 50-day EMA reflects strong medium-term momentum. The 9-day EMA (around $32.2) is acting as immediate support, guiding the recent advance. As long as price stays above these rising MAs, bulls have the technical advantage.
- **Relative Strength Index (RSI):** The 14-day RSI is in the **mid-50s**, which confirms **positive momentum** without being overbought. Earlier in the rally, RSI climbed higher, but after a mild consolidation it is now around 53-55. This mid-range RSI suggests there is **room for further upside** before reaching overbought levels (typically above 70). In other words, the trend has strength but isn’t overstretched. No bearish divergence is evident, so momentum supports the price trend.
- **MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):** The daily MACD is in **bullish territory**. The MACD line is above the zero line, and although the histogram is modest, it remains **positive**. The MACD had a bullish crossover earlier during the up-move, and it continues to flash a **“Buy” signal** as of mid-March. This indicates that the underlying trend momentum is still upward. As long as MACD stays above its signal line, it adds confirmation to long positions. Only a downward cross or a move below zero would warn of a trend weakening.
*(Together, these indicators paint a consistent picture: Silver’s uptrend is confirmed by moving averages and momentum oscillators. There are no extreme overbought warnings yet, so technicals **agree with the bullish outlook** while still warranting attention to any shifts.)*
## 5. Market News Impact on Silver
Fundamental and news-driven factors are also influencing XAG/USD and should be considered alongside the technicals:
- **Supply & Demand Fundamentals:** The **physical market backdrop is supportive** for silver. The Silver Institute projects that 2025 will see another **sizable supply deficit**, marking the fifth consecutive year where demand exceeds supply. Industrial demand for silver is forecast to hit a **record high** this year, thanks to growth in electronics, solar panels, and other green technologies. These strong demand dynamics and constrained supply create a positive fundamental bias that underpins the technical uptrend (tight supply can lead to higher prices over time).
- **Monetary Policy (Interest Rates & Inflation):** Macro-economic policies are tilting in favor of precious metals. With inflation remaining **sticky** and well above central bank targets, investors are seeking inflation hedges like silver. Moreover, even if the U.S. Federal Reserve slows the pace of rate hikes or begins cutting rates in 2025, **real interest rates** are expected to decline. Silver, being a non-yielding asset, tends to **benefit when interest rates are stable or falling** (since the opportunity cost of holding it drops). The anticipation of possible Fed **rate cuts** sometime in 2025 has already helped drive investment into silver. This macro backdrop of high inflation and a potentially dovish shift in monetary policy supports higher silver prices.
- **Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainties:** Silver also acts as a **safe-haven** asset in times of uncertainty (though to a slightly lesser extent than gold). Recent news has provided both tailwinds and headwinds on this front. **Trade policy concerns** – for example, anticipated tariff measures by the U.S. (Trump administration) – have fueled safe-haven demand for precious metals, including silver, in late 2024 and early 2025. Heightened geopolitical tensions or recession fears tend to send investors into hard assets. Indeed, silver saw increased buying at the start of 2025 amid these worries. On the other hand, such trade conflicts can also **dampen industrial demand** if they slow global growth, particularly in major markets like China. Analysts note that uncertainty over US–China trade and a weaker Chinese economy could temper enthusiasm for industrial metals and thereby cap silver’s upside in the near term. In summary, geopolitical news has a dual effect: it boosts safe-haven appeal but can hamper the industrial side of silver’s demand. So far, the net effect has leaned positive for silver prices, given the price rally.
- **Correlated Markets (Gold & USD):** Silver often **moves in tandem with gold**, so developments in the gold market spill over to silver. Notably, gold’s breakout to the upside has helped drag silver prices higher as well. Investors watching precious metals will often rotate into silver when gold gains, amplifying silver’s moves (sometimes silver outperforms in a gold rally due to its smaller market size and higher volatility). Additionally, the **US Dollar’s strength** plays a role: silver is priced in USD, so a **weakening dollar tends to propel silver prices up**, while a strong dollar can keep a lid on gains. Lately, expectations of a more accommodative Fed have put modest downward pressure on the dollar, indirectly supporting silver. Traders should keep an eye on the Dollar Index (DXY) and gold as barometers for silver’s potential moves. Overall, the current interplay of a rising gold market and a stable-to-soft USD is providing a favorable environment for silver.
**Bottom Line:** Silver’s daily chart outlook is **bullish**, supported by both technical factors (uptrend structure and confirming indicators) and fundamental drivers (strong demand, safe-haven flows, and a potential shift in macro policy). Key levels have been identified to manage risk: the market is looking for a move toward $35 and beyond, while pullbacks into support zones are viewed as buying opportunities rather than a reason to turn bearish. As always, traders should stay alert to any changes in market sentiment or news that could impact silver, but for now the path of least resistance remains to the upside.
## 1. Trend Analysis
- **Short-Term Trend (Daily/Weekly):** Silver’s daily chart shows a bullish bias. The metal has been trading in an **upward trajectory**, forming higher lows since early February’s pullback (around $30.70) and rebounding toward new highs. It recently briefly dipped below a rising channel, but **remained above short-term supports**, indicating the uptrend is intact. Momentum has only **paused briefly** before buyers stepped in, suggesting the market is still inclined to the upside.
- **Long-Term Trend (Multi-Month):** The broader trend is **decisively bullish**. In 2024, silver **broke above a decade-long range**, rallying approximately 40% and reaching about 335/OZ by October After a consolidation into late 2024 (holding around the low-
30S), the metal resumed its climb in early 2025. Robust fundamentals (strong industrial demand and supply deficits) and safe-haven flows have underpinned this long-term uptrend. Overall, silver continues to print higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart, reflecting a **sustained upward trend**.## 2. Support and Resistance Levels
**Key Resistance Levels:**
- **$33.40 –** This was the **recent peak** (a four-month high from mid-February) which the price has tested. A break above $33.40 signaled the bulls gaining.
- **$34.20 –** Near-term **upside target** corresponding to the upper boundary of the ascending channel. This level could offer resistance if price continues higher ([Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD breaks below $32.50, support appears at nine-day EMA on 10 March 2025.
- **$35.00 –** Major **psychological resistance** and the approximate high from late 2024. This was the peak of last year’s rally, and the current advance is aiming for this zone. A clear break above $35 would mark a multi-year high and open the door to further upside.
**Key Support Levels:**
- **$33.33 –** Immediate **support on dips**. This level roughly marks the recent breakout area in the low-$33s. Technical analysis indicates there are “plenty of buyers” around $33.33 ready to buy any pullback. Minor pullbacks toward this zone have been met with buying interest, reinforcing it as initial support.
- **$32.35 –** Secondary support from the last consolidation zone (upper $32s). Dips toward $32.3 have also attracted buyers. Notably, this area **aligns with the rising 9-day EMA** (around $32.21), adding technical support. A slide to this region may still find the uptrend intact, but a deeper break could weaken the short-term bullish momentum.
- **$31.60 –** A deeper support level identified from late February price action. If the $32 area were to give way, the next support is around $31.6. This level marks an interim low during the previous consolidation. Traders will watch this level as the **line in the sand** for the short-term uptrend.
- **$30.70 –** **Major support floor**. This was the **early-February low** (a two-month low) and represents a critical pivot. A drop below $30.70 would break the series of higher lows and signify a potential **trend reversal** on the daily chart. Bulls are likely to fiercely defend this level, and only a decisive break beneath it would turn the outlook bearish in the medium term.
## 3. Trade Setups and Strategy
Given the bullish trend and the support/resistance landscape, the preference is to **trade with the uptrend**. Here are potential setups:
- **Buy on Pullbacks:** The current environment favors a “**buy the dips**” approach. Traders could look to **enter long near support** levels around $33.30 or down to $32.3 on a pullback. For instance, if XAG/USD retraces into the $33-$32 zone, that presents a potential entry area. A stop-loss can be placed just **below $32.00** (i.e. under the 9-day EMA and second support) to guard against a deeper correction. The first profit target would be a re-test of the recent highs around **$35.00**. If momentum carries on, an extended target toward the **$36-$37** area is reasonable, since a breakout above $35 could trigger a swift rally higher ([XAG/USD Forecast Today 14/03: Silver Launches Higher. This long setup aligns with the prevailing uptrend and is supported by observable buying interest at those support levels.
- **Bullish Breakout Trade:** An alternative entry is on a **clear breakout above $35.00**. A daily close above $35 would confirm a new high beyond the 2024 peak, likely accelerating bullish momentum. Traders can **buy the breakout** with a stop-loss just below the breached resistance (e.g. under $34 for safety). Above $35, there is relatively **open upside** – a “massive move to the upside” could materialize according to technical observers. One could aim for **$37+** as an initial objective, and even around $40 if the rally extends over the coming weeks. Notably, some analysts project silver prices in the high-
30S to $40 range in 2025, so holding a portion of the position for a larger trend follow-through may pay off. *(At this juncture, shorting silver is contrarian and risky given the strength of the uptrend. Only if price **fails** and closes below major support (like $30.70) would a bearish setup be considered. In such a scenario, a short trade could target the mid-$28s, but this is against the current dominant trend and is not the primary expectation.)*
## 4. Technical Indicators Confirmation
Major technical indicators on the daily chart confirm the bullish bias:
- **Moving Averages (MA):** The **short-term 9-day EMA** and the **50-day EMA** are **sloping upward**, and importantly, price is trading *above* both of these moving averages. This alignment indicates the **uptrend is well-supported**. The fact that silver remains above its 50-day EMA reflects strong medium-term momentum. The 9-day EMA (around $32.2) is acting as immediate support, guiding the recent advance. As long as price stays above these rising MAs, bulls have the technical advantage.
- **Relative Strength Index (RSI):** The 14-day RSI is in the **mid-50s**, which confirms **positive momentum** without being overbought. Earlier in the rally, RSI climbed higher, but after a mild consolidation it is now around 53-55. This mid-range RSI suggests there is **room for further upside** before reaching overbought levels (typically above 70). In other words, the trend has strength but isn’t overstretched. No bearish divergence is evident, so momentum supports the price trend.
- **MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):** The daily MACD is in **bullish territory**. The MACD line is above the zero line, and although the histogram is modest, it remains **positive**. The MACD had a bullish crossover earlier during the up-move, and it continues to flash a **“Buy” signal** as of mid-March. This indicates that the underlying trend momentum is still upward. As long as MACD stays above its signal line, it adds confirmation to long positions. Only a downward cross or a move below zero would warn of a trend weakening.
*(Together, these indicators paint a consistent picture: Silver’s uptrend is confirmed by moving averages and momentum oscillators. There are no extreme overbought warnings yet, so technicals **agree with the bullish outlook** while still warranting attention to any shifts.)*
## 5. Market News Impact on Silver
Fundamental and news-driven factors are also influencing XAG/USD and should be considered alongside the technicals:
- **Supply & Demand Fundamentals:** The **physical market backdrop is supportive** for silver. The Silver Institute projects that 2025 will see another **sizable supply deficit**, marking the fifth consecutive year where demand exceeds supply. Industrial demand for silver is forecast to hit a **record high** this year, thanks to growth in electronics, solar panels, and other green technologies. These strong demand dynamics and constrained supply create a positive fundamental bias that underpins the technical uptrend (tight supply can lead to higher prices over time).
- **Monetary Policy (Interest Rates & Inflation):** Macro-economic policies are tilting in favor of precious metals. With inflation remaining **sticky** and well above central bank targets, investors are seeking inflation hedges like silver. Moreover, even if the U.S. Federal Reserve slows the pace of rate hikes or begins cutting rates in 2025, **real interest rates** are expected to decline. Silver, being a non-yielding asset, tends to **benefit when interest rates are stable or falling** (since the opportunity cost of holding it drops). The anticipation of possible Fed **rate cuts** sometime in 2025 has already helped drive investment into silver. This macro backdrop of high inflation and a potentially dovish shift in monetary policy supports higher silver prices.
- **Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainties:** Silver also acts as a **safe-haven** asset in times of uncertainty (though to a slightly lesser extent than gold). Recent news has provided both tailwinds and headwinds on this front. **Trade policy concerns** – for example, anticipated tariff measures by the U.S. (Trump administration) – have fueled safe-haven demand for precious metals, including silver, in late 2024 and early 2025. Heightened geopolitical tensions or recession fears tend to send investors into hard assets. Indeed, silver saw increased buying at the start of 2025 amid these worries. On the other hand, such trade conflicts can also **dampen industrial demand** if they slow global growth, particularly in major markets like China. Analysts note that uncertainty over US–China trade and a weaker Chinese economy could temper enthusiasm for industrial metals and thereby cap silver’s upside in the near term. In summary, geopolitical news has a dual effect: it boosts safe-haven appeal but can hamper the industrial side of silver’s demand. So far, the net effect has leaned positive for silver prices, given the price rally.
- **Correlated Markets (Gold & USD):** Silver often **moves in tandem with gold**, so developments in the gold market spill over to silver. Notably, gold’s breakout to the upside has helped drag silver prices higher as well. Investors watching precious metals will often rotate into silver when gold gains, amplifying silver’s moves (sometimes silver outperforms in a gold rally due to its smaller market size and higher volatility). Additionally, the **US Dollar’s strength** plays a role: silver is priced in USD, so a **weakening dollar tends to propel silver prices up**, while a strong dollar can keep a lid on gains. Lately, expectations of a more accommodative Fed have put modest downward pressure on the dollar, indirectly supporting silver. Traders should keep an eye on the Dollar Index (DXY) and gold as barometers for silver’s potential moves. Overall, the current interplay of a rising gold market and a stable-to-soft USD is providing a favorable environment for silver.
**Bottom Line:** Silver’s daily chart outlook is **bullish**, supported by both technical factors (uptrend structure and confirming indicators) and fundamental drivers (strong demand, safe-haven flows, and a potential shift in macro policy). Key levels have been identified to manage risk: the market is looking for a move toward $35 and beyond, while pullbacks into support zones are viewed as buying opportunities rather than a reason to turn bearish. As always, traders should stay alert to any changes in market sentiment or news that could impact silver, but for now the path of least resistance remains to the upside.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.