GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jul 28 - Aug 01]

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This week, XAUUSD prices had a positive start, rising sharply from 3,345 USD/oz to 3,439 USD/oz because investors were concerned about the risk of financial market instability when US President Donald Trump continuously pressured the FED Chairman to reduce interest rates, and there were even rumors of the Fed chairman resigning.

However, the upward momentum in gold prices was not maintained when the US continuously reached trade agreements with partners such as Japan, Indonesia, Philippines..., cooling down the trade war. This caused gold prices to drop sharply for three consecutive trading sessions, at one point the gold price dropped to 3,325 USD/oz and closed at 3,336 USD/oz.

Trade war worries are starting to subside. Therefore, we continue to witness a shift of investment capital flows from gold to risky assets such as stocks..

Notably, this week is the fourth time gold prices broke the $3,400 threshold but did not stay above this level.

Next week, in addition to the FED meeting, the market will also receive information about US non-agricultural employment (NFP) data. If this index falls stronger than expected, it will further strengthen expectations that the FED will continue to keep interest rates at the current level in upcoming meetings, causing gold prices to drop even more sharply next week.

GOLD continues to correct down, good news from trade situation


📌In terms of technical analysis, the three crows pattern (3 long red candles) appeared on the D1 chart, showing that sellers were still in control throughout the past 3 trading sessions without much buying power. This technical pattern often suggests that gold prices may be shifting from their recent upward trajectory into a more prolonged period of decline. This technical signal also quite coincides with the context of many fundamental factors, such as geopolitical conflicts, trade wars, low physical gold demand in the summer... no longer strongly supporting gold prices as before. However, according to many experts, if the gold price drops sharply, it will be a good opportunity to buy, because the gold price is forecast to still increase strongly in the long term.

On the H4 chart, gold price may continue to adjust down below the 3,285 USD/oz mark, before recovering again. Meanwhile, the 3,450 USD/oz area is still a strong resistance level for gold prices next week.

Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292USD
Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,430USD


SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3383 - 3381⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3387

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3316 - 3318⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3312
Note
Gold prices fell for a third consecutive day and hit $3,320 an ounce as the US-EU trade deal eased concerns about economic risks, reducing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
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GOLD falls on USD and trade talks, big data week
Note
Gold: Started the week down sharply due to US-EU deal, then recovered.
Note
Gold prices recovered slightly after a sharp drop, hovering around $3,330/oz, as investors awaited the Fed's interest rate decision, US Q2 GDP data and the ADP employment report. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged but may send a "dove" signal, especially when the US bond market shows high demand for shelter.
Note
Trump Reacts to 3% Q2 GDP: It's Too Late to Cut Rates Now. No Inflation! Let People Buy and Refinance Their Homes!
Note
Gold prices rose to a record high of $3,314.71 an ounce amid growing global concerns over US-international trade tensions, rising US inflation and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. President Trump’s executive order to increase import tariffs on many countries has caused investors to flock to gold as a safe haven asset.

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