⚡ Session Transition: End of Week | End of Month | Entering New Trading Month | Pre-London Liquidity Setup
🔷 SECTION 1: MACRO-LEVEL OUTLOOK (BIG MONEY FLOW)
📊 Monthly FVRP & Market Context (February Recap → March Projections)
🔥 February Recap:
✅ Monthly POC: $2,877.26 → Heavy balance area → Price magnet.
✅ Monthly VAH: $2,936.40 → Major resistance. Smart Money rejection area.
✅ Monthly VAL: $2,803.50 → Institutional buying zone.
✅ Monthly VWAP: $2,860.50 → Institutional dynamic pivot.
📌 Interpretation:
February’s top rejection at VAH ($2,936) = Institutions unloaded positions.
Now price is pinned at POC ($2,877) → Distribution or accumulation?
If $2,860 holds, March can break into $3,000 territory.
If $2,860 fails, Smart Money will dive to $2,803 - $2,777 to wipe out weak longs before reversing.
📊 Weekly FVRP: Next 5-Day Institutional Roadmap
✅ POC (Weekly): $2,857.44 → Current control zone.
✅ VAH (Weekly): $2,911.60 → Key resistance. Breakout trigger.
✅ VAL (Weekly): $2,832.40 → Buy-side liquidity trap.
✅ VWAP Weekly: $2,849.30 → Immediate decision point.
📌 Interpretation:
Weekly structure is setting up for a liquidity grab.
Smart Money playbook:
Pump towards $2,911 to fake a breakout, then dump to $2,832.
Or push below $2,832 first, then rally back into $2,911.
Trade Plan: We fade the fakeouts. We ride the true move.
📊 Daily FVRP: Monday’s Tactical Game Plan
✅ POC (Daily): $2,857.44 → Where battle is fought.
✅ VAH (Daily): $2,885.00 → First resistance. Breakout point.
✅ VAL (Daily): $2,833.00 → Last line of defense before a cascade lower.
✅ VWAP Daily: $2,853.14 → Intraday battleground.
📌 Interpretation:
Friday’s close = neutral-bearish. Delta negative (-1.67K).
Monday = Trap day. Smart Money needs to run stops.
Two plays:
Long if $2,849 holds → Target $2,885 - $2,911.
Short if VWAP rejects at $2,860 → Target $2,832 - $2,803.
🔷 SECTION 2: ASIAN SESSION SETUP (PRE-LONDON MANEUVERING)
✅ POC (Asian Session Last Week): $2,845.00 ✅ VAH (Asian Session Last Week): $2,868.00 ✅ VAL (Asian Session Last Week): $2,829.00 ✅ VWAP (Asian Session Last Week): $2,849.50
📌 Interpretation:
Asia will be slow. Low liquidity. Expect consolidation between $2,849 - $2,860.
London will sweep one side. New York will run the real move.
🔷 SECTION 3: VOLUME SPREAD ANALYSIS (VSA) – WHO CONTROLS THE MARKET?
🔹 VSA Condition (Daily): Neutral → Potential transition 🔹 Volume Change: -18.06% (Institutions waiting for liquidity grab) 🔹 Spread Change: -0.89% (Range-bound, no real breakout yet) 🔹 Delta (Weekly): -32.26K (Bearish bias, but not capitulation)
📌 Interpretation:
Institutions absorbing liquidity but NOT committing yet.
Monday’s first few hours will reveal true direction.
Wait for delta confirmation before executing full-size trades.
🔷 SECTION 4: ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO – TREND CONFIRMATION
✅ Kumo Cloud: Price at lower edge → Trend decision time. ✅ Tenkan-Sen & Kijun-Sen: Bearish cross → Short-term momentum weak. ✅ Chikou Span: Below price → Confirms downside risk still exists.
📌 Conclusion:
Above $2,868 = bullish breakout to $2,911.
Below $2,849 = bearish continuation to $2,832 - $2,803.
🔷 SECTION 5: MACRO & GEOPOLITICAL IMPACT ON GOLD
🔥 Trump’s Tariff Bombshell & Foreign Policy Risks
New trade war threats? USD STRENGTH → Gold dips temporarily.
China retaliation? GOLD MOONS → Risk-off flows.
Watch for policy updates. Trump’s moves can cause major gold volatility.
🔥 Federal Reserve & Interest Rate Impact
If Fed hints at cuts = Gold RALLY.
If Fed stays hawkish = Short-term dip, long-term bullish.
🔥 Stock Market Volatility & Geopolitical Tensions
Russia-Ukraine & China-Taiwan tensions = More safe-haven demand for gold.
🔷 SECTION 6: XAUMO SMART MONEY EXECUTION STRATEGY
📈 Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Play (VWAP Reclaim & Momentum Surge)
✅ Trigger: Price holds above $2,860 VWAP, delta turns positive, volume expansion. ✅ Entry: Buy $2,860 - $2,868 ✅ Stop Loss: Below $2,849 ✅ Take Profits:
TP1: $2,885
TP2: $2,911
TP3: $2,936 (Monthly VAH)
📉 Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Play (VWAP Rejection & Delta Shift Negative)
✅ Trigger: Price rejects $2,860 VWAP, delta negative, absorption at resistance. ✅ Entry: Sell $2,849 - $2,860 ✅ Stop Loss: Above $2,868 ✅ Take Profits:
TP1: $2,832
TP2: $2,803 (Monthly VAL)
TP3: $2,777
🔷 SECTION 1: MACRO-LEVEL OUTLOOK (BIG MONEY FLOW)
📊 Monthly FVRP & Market Context (February Recap → March Projections)
🔥 February Recap:
✅ Monthly POC: $2,877.26 → Heavy balance area → Price magnet.
✅ Monthly VAH: $2,936.40 → Major resistance. Smart Money rejection area.
✅ Monthly VAL: $2,803.50 → Institutional buying zone.
✅ Monthly VWAP: $2,860.50 → Institutional dynamic pivot.
📌 Interpretation:
February’s top rejection at VAH ($2,936) = Institutions unloaded positions.
Now price is pinned at POC ($2,877) → Distribution or accumulation?
If $2,860 holds, March can break into $3,000 territory.
If $2,860 fails, Smart Money will dive to $2,803 - $2,777 to wipe out weak longs before reversing.
📊 Weekly FVRP: Next 5-Day Institutional Roadmap
✅ POC (Weekly): $2,857.44 → Current control zone.
✅ VAH (Weekly): $2,911.60 → Key resistance. Breakout trigger.
✅ VAL (Weekly): $2,832.40 → Buy-side liquidity trap.
✅ VWAP Weekly: $2,849.30 → Immediate decision point.
📌 Interpretation:
Weekly structure is setting up for a liquidity grab.
Smart Money playbook:
Pump towards $2,911 to fake a breakout, then dump to $2,832.
Or push below $2,832 first, then rally back into $2,911.
Trade Plan: We fade the fakeouts. We ride the true move.
📊 Daily FVRP: Monday’s Tactical Game Plan
✅ POC (Daily): $2,857.44 → Where battle is fought.
✅ VAH (Daily): $2,885.00 → First resistance. Breakout point.
✅ VAL (Daily): $2,833.00 → Last line of defense before a cascade lower.
✅ VWAP Daily: $2,853.14 → Intraday battleground.
📌 Interpretation:
Friday’s close = neutral-bearish. Delta negative (-1.67K).
Monday = Trap day. Smart Money needs to run stops.
Two plays:
Long if $2,849 holds → Target $2,885 - $2,911.
Short if VWAP rejects at $2,860 → Target $2,832 - $2,803.
🔷 SECTION 2: ASIAN SESSION SETUP (PRE-LONDON MANEUVERING)
✅ POC (Asian Session Last Week): $2,845.00 ✅ VAH (Asian Session Last Week): $2,868.00 ✅ VAL (Asian Session Last Week): $2,829.00 ✅ VWAP (Asian Session Last Week): $2,849.50
📌 Interpretation:
Asia will be slow. Low liquidity. Expect consolidation between $2,849 - $2,860.
London will sweep one side. New York will run the real move.
🔷 SECTION 3: VOLUME SPREAD ANALYSIS (VSA) – WHO CONTROLS THE MARKET?
🔹 VSA Condition (Daily): Neutral → Potential transition 🔹 Volume Change: -18.06% (Institutions waiting for liquidity grab) 🔹 Spread Change: -0.89% (Range-bound, no real breakout yet) 🔹 Delta (Weekly): -32.26K (Bearish bias, but not capitulation)
📌 Interpretation:
Institutions absorbing liquidity but NOT committing yet.
Monday’s first few hours will reveal true direction.
Wait for delta confirmation before executing full-size trades.
🔷 SECTION 4: ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO – TREND CONFIRMATION
✅ Kumo Cloud: Price at lower edge → Trend decision time. ✅ Tenkan-Sen & Kijun-Sen: Bearish cross → Short-term momentum weak. ✅ Chikou Span: Below price → Confirms downside risk still exists.
📌 Conclusion:
Above $2,868 = bullish breakout to $2,911.
Below $2,849 = bearish continuation to $2,832 - $2,803.
🔷 SECTION 5: MACRO & GEOPOLITICAL IMPACT ON GOLD
🔥 Trump’s Tariff Bombshell & Foreign Policy Risks
New trade war threats? USD STRENGTH → Gold dips temporarily.
China retaliation? GOLD MOONS → Risk-off flows.
Watch for policy updates. Trump’s moves can cause major gold volatility.
🔥 Federal Reserve & Interest Rate Impact
If Fed hints at cuts = Gold RALLY.
If Fed stays hawkish = Short-term dip, long-term bullish.
🔥 Stock Market Volatility & Geopolitical Tensions
Russia-Ukraine & China-Taiwan tensions = More safe-haven demand for gold.
🔷 SECTION 6: XAUMO SMART MONEY EXECUTION STRATEGY
📈 Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Play (VWAP Reclaim & Momentum Surge)
✅ Trigger: Price holds above $2,860 VWAP, delta turns positive, volume expansion. ✅ Entry: Buy $2,860 - $2,868 ✅ Stop Loss: Below $2,849 ✅ Take Profits:
TP1: $2,885
TP2: $2,911
TP3: $2,936 (Monthly VAH)
📉 Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Play (VWAP Rejection & Delta Shift Negative)
✅ Trigger: Price rejects $2,860 VWAP, delta negative, absorption at resistance. ✅ Entry: Sell $2,849 - $2,860 ✅ Stop Loss: Above $2,868 ✅ Take Profits:
TP1: $2,832
TP2: $2,803 (Monthly VAL)
TP3: $2,777
Mohamed
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Mohamed
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.