9th May 2025 – Market Analysis
Trading closed in equilibrium—the price presents a shy difference in distance to the upper and lower bound.
Keeping It Simple:
✅ Be independent. Be smart. Be confident. ✅ Trade with clarity—no rush, no noise, no distractions. ✅ Wait for confirmations. Then act.
Momentum:
📍 No significant shift – Monthly candle remains incomplete, forming a doji, clearly signaling indecision with equal Bull/Bear strength.
📍 Alternative Perspective: If volume absorption is occurring, price may be positioning for a delayed breakout rather than true hesitation.
📍 Key Action: Watch for failed breakdown attempts at critical levels—this would suggest accumulation rather than exhaustion.
Volume & Liquidity Dynamics
📍 Signs of fading strength for each push—momentum remains weak on both sides.
📍 Liquidity pools on both sides might fuel false breaks before real movement.
📍 Watch participation near key levels—does volume confirm continuation, or is liquidity absorbing for a reversal?
Execution Strategy: Acting on Confirmation
📌 Wait for price to confirm its direction—avoid early positioning.
📌 Avoid trading inside noisy ranges—let price break cleanly.
📌 Volume participation matters—true moves show conviction, not hesitation.
📌 Let initial volatility clear before entering—real intent follows liquidity sweeps.
📌 Trade with precision, not reaction—execute based on confirmed setups.
Key Levels to Watch:
Weekly Timeframe [TF]
📌 Indecision: Bull closed with a long wick—showing weakened momentum despite increased volume participation.
📌 Pivot: 3333
📌 Bias: Price closed near pivot at the lower bound → Bear bias
📌 Ranges:
🔗 View Chart below
Daily Timeframe [TF]
📌 Tapered volume observed over the last 3 trading days, while price remains lower—showing hesitation toward the downside or structured positioning.
📌 The candle’s significant move suggests Smart Money (SM) positioning—hunting liquidity on both sides before the actual move.
📌 Pivot: 3316
📌 Bias: Price closed near pivot at the upper bound → Bull bias
📌 Ranges:
🔗 View Chart
4H Timeframe [TF]
📌 Price is stalling at 3341 & 3338—clear rejection at these levels.
📌 Third upward attempt failed, closing red within the previous green candle’s range.
📌 Next bullish move needs a clean break above 3341 to regain momentum.
📌 Failure to hold above 3264 will attempt downside support levels:
📌 Rebound move could retest:
📌 Ultimate breakout could attempt level: 3510 (if reached within this week’s trading range).
🔗 View Chart
2H Timeframe [TF]
📌 Sideway range holding between 3341 & 3327.
📌 Clear directional confirmation:
📌 Entry within this range remains messy—wait for confirmation before positioning.
🔗 View Chart
Zooming Into Smaller Timeframes:
m45 Timeframe [TF]
🔹 Weakening bull push observed—exhaustion before reaching higher levels at 3359.
🔹 Bearish control remains below 3359—downside continuation requires a break below 3322/3320 toward 3294.
🔹 3294 remains critical—sideways action likely before next session opens (LSE/NYSE).
🔹 Break below 3294 → Drop toward next support at 3254.
🔗 View Chart
m15 Timeframe [TF]
🔹 m15 reinforces m45 bearish bias—failure to break above 3332/3331, testing lower support at 3324.
🔹 Red candle closed at 3326—confirmation of Sell signal remains valid if price stays below 3324.
🔹 Rebound above 3324/3332 → Renewed bullish momentum.
🔗 View Chart
Final Notes:
🔹 Patience is key—confirmation first, execution second.
🔹 Market clearing is necessary before strong momentum unfolds.
🔹 Monday’s volatility will test liquidity traps—watch for breakouts before committing.
🔹 Alternative formation warnings included—if absorption is detected, reassess positioning.
🔹 Trade with clarity, avoid distractions, and execute with precision.
Trading closed in equilibrium—the price presents a shy difference in distance to the upper and lower bound.
Keeping It Simple:
✅ Be independent. Be smart. Be confident. ✅ Trade with clarity—no rush, no noise, no distractions. ✅ Wait for confirmations. Then act.
Momentum:
📍 No significant shift – Monthly candle remains incomplete, forming a doji, clearly signaling indecision with equal Bull/Bear strength.
📍 Alternative Perspective: If volume absorption is occurring, price may be positioning for a delayed breakout rather than true hesitation.
📍 Key Action: Watch for failed breakdown attempts at critical levels—this would suggest accumulation rather than exhaustion.
Volume & Liquidity Dynamics
📍 Signs of fading strength for each push—momentum remains weak on both sides.
📍 Liquidity pools on both sides might fuel false breaks before real movement.
📍 Watch participation near key levels—does volume confirm continuation, or is liquidity absorbing for a reversal?
📍 Key takeaway: Let the market reveal true intent before acting.
Execution Strategy: Acting on Confirmation
📌 Wait for price to confirm its direction—avoid early positioning.
📌 Avoid trading inside noisy ranges—let price break cleanly.
📌 Volume participation matters—true moves show conviction, not hesitation.
📌 Let initial volatility clear before entering—real intent follows liquidity sweeps.
📌 Trade with precision, not reaction—execute based on confirmed setups.
📍 Liquidity absorption may delay directional moves—if false breaks occur, reassess entry zones before committing.
Key Levels to Watch:
Weekly Timeframe [TF]
📌 Indecision: Bull closed with a long wick—showing weakened momentum despite increased volume participation.
📌 Pivot: 3333
📌 Bias: Price closed near pivot at the lower bound → Bear bias
📌 Ranges:
Bull range above: 3397
Bear range below: 3275
🔗 View Chart below
Daily Timeframe [TF]
📌 Tapered volume observed over the last 3 trading days, while price remains lower—showing hesitation toward the downside or structured positioning.
📌 The candle’s significant move suggests Smart Money (SM) positioning—hunting liquidity on both sides before the actual move.
📌 Pivot: 3316
📌 Bias: Price closed near pivot at the upper bound → Bull bias
📌 Ranges:
Bull range above: 3333
Bear range below: 3288
🔗 View Chart
4H Timeframe [TF]
📌 Price is stalling at 3341 & 3338—clear rejection at these levels.
📌 Third upward attempt failed, closing red within the previous green candle’s range.
📌 Next bullish move needs a clean break above 3341 to regain momentum.
📌 Failure to hold above 3264 will attempt downside support levels:
3322 / 3314 / 3303 / 3282 / 3274 / 3253 / 3242 / 3227 / 3200 / 3185 / 3176 / 3169 / 3135
📌 Rebound move could retest:
3354 / 3356 / 3363 / 3374 / 3403 / 3414 / 3435
📌 Ultimate breakout could attempt level: 3510 (if reached within this week’s trading range).
🔗 View Chart
2H Timeframe [TF]
📌 Sideway range holding between 3341 & 3327.
📌 Clear directional confirmation:
Break above 3378 → Bull confirmation
Break below 3320 → Bear confirmation
📌 Entry within this range remains messy—wait for confirmation before positioning.
🔗 View Chart
Zooming Into Smaller Timeframes:
m45 Timeframe [TF]
🔹 Weakening bull push observed—exhaustion before reaching higher levels at 3359.
🔹 Bearish control remains below 3359—downside continuation requires a break below 3322/3320 toward 3294.
🔹 3294 remains critical—sideways action likely before next session opens (LSE/NYSE).
🔹 Break below 3294 → Drop toward next support at 3254.
🔗 View Chart
m15 Timeframe [TF]
🔹 m15 reinforces m45 bearish bias—failure to break above 3332/3331, testing lower support at 3324.
🔹 Red candle closed at 3326—confirmation of Sell signal remains valid if price stays below 3324.
🔹 Rebound above 3324/3332 → Renewed bullish momentum.
🔗 View Chart
Final Notes:
🔹 Patience is key—confirmation first, execution second.
🔹 Market clearing is necessary before strong momentum unfolds.
🔹 Monday’s volatility will test liquidity traps—watch for breakouts before committing.
🔹 Alternative formation warnings included—if absorption is detected, reassess positioning.
🔹 Trade with clarity, avoid distractions, and execute with precision.
🔥 Anticipation: Market structure will determine direction. Let confirmation guide execution. 🚀🔥
Note
Trade Journal: I have an active position held over the weekend—let’s see the outcome this coming Monday.This snapshot documents the journey of this active position:
📌 Initial entry: 1 unit triggered at 3373 on 8th May 2025.
📌 Additional entries:
Sell Limit at 3341 → triggered on 9th May 2025
Sell Stop at 3327 → triggered on 9th May 2025
📌 Current Position Overview:
Total units: 3
Average price: 3347.29
Stop Loss (SL): 3510
Take Profit (TP): 3169
📌 Snapshot reference: See below.
Trade active
Why Do I Continue to Hold and Monitor? 1️⃣ Daily TF shows overall bullish sentiment above 3279, supported by Friday's close at 3326. However, within the corrective wave formation, confirmation depends on Monday's candle (12th May 2025).
📌 A solid green candle with a strong move breaching Friday's high would invalidate the short-term bearish sentiment, shifting focus to a retest of lower resistance at 3169/3154.
2️⃣ Bearish Continuation: Anticipation of further downside remains unless the following levels are breached with solid confirmation:
📌 A) Previous daily close at 3326 remained below all bearish biases across multiple TFs, supported by key bearish bound levels:
🔸 Daily TF: Nearing Daily Pivot 3316 → price must retest this level before enabling recovery to invalidate bear bias.
🔸 4H TF: Below 3338 → sell pressure remains active, continuing downside attempts.
🔸 2H TF: Below 3341/3327 → short-term sell pressure is still solid.
🔸 m45 TF: Below 3333-3322 → Sell momentum buildup or liquidity trap?
🔸 m15 TF: Below 3331/3324 → Strong sell signals in this zone—hesitation may indicate weakness or liquidity absorption.
📌 B) Bullish Recovery Boundaries:
🔹 Daily TF: Above 3333 → short-term bullish continuation is imminent past 3347, attempting the 3510 bound.
🔹 4H TF: Above 3341 → potential attempt to breach upper levels toward 3378.
🔹 2H TF: Above 3378 → Flip boundary—key level to monitor for trend shift.
🔹 m45 TF: Above 3359 → Momentum buildup or trap?
🔹 m15 TF: Above 3332 → Exiting active bouncing range, confirming short-term bullish strength.
Execution Strategy:
📌 Stronger confirmation arrives after price exits these zones—let the market sweep liquidity and noise first.
📌 Wait for it to reveal its true move, then respond with conviction—wise traders avoid reacting emotionally to distractions.
Note
Not just mere hope, nor reckless speculation. Time has revealed the truth—it moved as anticipated. Pat yourself on the back and enjoy the moment.
Note
this is the same update in the Gold Mirage Trap idea.In the M15 timeframe, the current movement suggests the following:
To enable downside continuation and complete the current wave structure, price needs to retest the 3235 level before moving lower.
A true downside move should be coupled with strong momentum and a clean breach of 3216.
The ultimate downside target remains 3169.
If 3235 fails to hold, bulls may stage a comeback, attempting a rally toward 3249/3269/3278.
Note
📊 2H, 4H & M15 Price Action & Liquidity Positioning Update🔹 Market Overview:Price is currently attempting push above 3238 on the 2H timeframe, marking a pivotal moment where either bullish momentum strengthens or absorption intensifies before execution. However, Asian session ranging movement has prolonged liquidity refinement, ensuring positioning matures before commitment.
On the 4H timeframe, price remains below 3264, reinforcing institutional control over bullish liquidity while validating structural accumulation before directional commitment.
On the M15 timeframe, price is testing the key breakdown levels at 3225/3217. If the candle closes below these levels, downside momentum could accelerate further, clearing liquidity, or price could extend consolidation within the intraday session, trapping liquidity before transitioning.
🔸 Key Observations (2H, 4H & M15):
2H Close above 3238 may signal bullish expansion, but a sudden pullback could indicate an engineered liquidity trap.
Price still below 3264 on 4H, confirming suppressed bullish exposure and maintaining structured liquidity refinement.
Retail confusion expected with previous swing low breach, reinforcing liquidity engineering before price expansion.
Asian session ranging ensures accumulation finalizes, setting up liquidity cycles before next phase execution.
M15 closing below 3225/3217 could trigger downside acceleration, or price could prolong consolidation within the session.
Tracking volume engagement post-M15 close will confirm momentum strength or absorption cycles.
📌 Key Confirmation Points:
✅ Asian session range remains intact, reinforcing accumulation mechanics.
✅ 2H close above 3238 may trigger bullish exposure, but absorption risks remain.
✅ Price staying below 3264 on 4H sustains institutional control, limiting premature bullish expansion.
✅ M15 closing below 3225/3217 confirms downside acceleration risk, or prolonged consolidation.
✅ Volume tracking across all timeframes ensures directional validation, avoiding reactionary bias.
📌 Execution Strategy Moving Forward:
Watching post-close reaction near 3238 (2H)—whether price sustains momentum or absorption strengthens.
Monitoring rejection zones near 3264 (4H)—ensuring liquidity sustains before bullish engagement.
Tracking volume engagement across 2H, 4H & M15 timeframes, validating directional bias before adjustments.
Monitoring M15 liquidity response below 3225/3217, confirming expansion or continued accumulation phase.
Letting price define true expansion before engagement, ensuring structured exposure remains intact.
🚀 Stay sharp—liquidity precision matters. Momentum refining beautifully—tracking price behavior before engagement. Let’s refine positioning further.
Note
The M15 chart confirms price rejection at 3264, reinforcing that this move is far from over. To fully validate the trap being filled, price needs a strong, clean breach below lower support, eliminating weak positioning.Chart Breakdown:
Price rejecting 3264 reinforces liquidity manipulation, suggesting absorption before a decisive move.
For true bearish confirmation, price needs to clear lower support decisively, avoiding hesitation that could reset liquidity cycles.
A shallow drop without conviction would indicate extended positioning refinement, rather than immediate bearish expansion.
Key Focus Moving Forward:
📌 Tracking whether price sustains rejection below 3264, confirming commitment.
📌 Monitoring lower support reaction, ensuring momentum follows through.
📌 Watching volume shift at key levels, validating real engagement versus engineered traps.
Note
Add Limit Order:📈 Positioning Strategy & Opportunity Zones
🔹 Primary Sell Limit Entry: 3282 (Confirmed liquidity sweep zone)
🔹 Stop Loss: 3305 (Above retail sentiment absorption level)
🔹 Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 3220-3230 (First liquidity absorption area)
TP2: 3190-3210 (Major liquidity pool)
TP3: 3169 (Deep liquidity zone for full move)
📍 Alternative Entry Zones (If Sell Limit Doesn’t Trigger)
🔹 Opportunity Window: 3275-3260 (Alternative sell level if retracement shifts)
🔹 Final Trap Monitoring: Watch for price activation at short-term liquidity spike levels before executing.
📰 Sentiment & News Impact Considerations
🔹 Monitor M15 diagonal SR for sentiment renewal and short-cycle impact.
🔹 If news triggers a shock effect, observe reactions at 3299 (2H rejection zone) for confirmation.
🔹 Adjust SL dynamically post-entry based on liquidity response and news exaggeration.
📊 Execution Plan
✔ Set alerts at key liquidity zones to track activation before execution.
✔ Monitor exhaustion signals in M15/M45 for validation of entry.
✔ Watch institutional footprints for confirmation before stepping in.
🚀 This structured plan ensures precise tracking, risk management, and smart execution. 📢
Note
All the wait and discipline is totally worth it.Those who followed this update closely, I really hope you did catches that move!!!
Note
The ultimate target at 3169 reached and position closed right when it touched 3168.07 in a second and closed at level 3171 [Time: 03:00 UTC+8 on 15th May 2025]. Price set for a short-cycle correction right after. Refer the snapshot below.Lets further understanding the next move, opportunities is ripe for gain. The next shift would equally as profit as this one too. STAY TUNED!!!
Note
Daily Chart OverviewWe are at the flip zone—price near this level is volatile and could move in either direction. However, it presents the best opportunity for positioning.
Recognizing liquidity zones in smaller TFs allows for calculated risk management.
Levels to Watch:
✔ Upper: 3200 / 3279
✔ Lower: 3167 / 3154 / 3134 — Below these levels suggests strong bearish pressure, targeting 3026.
Since we are not reaching that level in the near term, this is for awareness.
Entry Strategy:
positioning should be based on confirmation in M15 candles.
Sell -
Entry: 3240 |
TP: 3161 | SL: 3295
Buy -
Entry: 3184 |
TP: 3263 | SL: 3129
Any directional shift must be backed by strong momentum and a clean push.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.