XAUUSD Intra-Day Analysis 4/5/2020
Updated
As expected, Gold rebounded from the Supply Zone. Bulls pushed the price with huge volume and allowed Gold to break through a 4H SR Zone, hitting the upper 4H SR Zone (78.6% Fibonacci Retracement) and forming a lower high. This breaks the symmetrical triangle pattern I theorized in my earlier updates as a lower low was also formed. However, it is in line with the sideways market I mentioned earlier in the post on 1st May.
Current volume approaching the R turned S level is weak and unlikely to break through. Expected upwards swing in the following day, retesting the upper 4H SR Zone and perhaps breaking out towards the upper end of the pennant before reversing back down to the lower 4H SR Zone. However, we could potentially see another downwards movement as institutional traders gather liquidity for a stronger upwards movement in the longer term.
Bullish in the short term (Scalps). I left out Swings as price has reached the upper 4H SR level, and there is little allowance at the upper boundary of the pennant. Retesting the level would create a sideways market in the minute charts that can be used for scalping.
Bearish in the mid term (Swings). Price should be headed downwards as bullish swing traders take profit. Take care entering as Gold is STILL on its long term Bull Run. Keep stop loss at a reasonable level and watch out for news affecting price.
Current volume approaching the R turned S level is weak and unlikely to break through. Expected upwards swing in the following day, retesting the upper 4H SR Zone and perhaps breaking out towards the upper end of the pennant before reversing back down to the lower 4H SR Zone. However, we could potentially see another downwards movement as institutional traders gather liquidity for a stronger upwards movement in the longer term.
Bullish in the short term (Scalps). I left out Swings as price has reached the upper 4H SR level, and there is little allowance at the upper boundary of the pennant. Retesting the level would create a sideways market in the minute charts that can be used for scalping.
Bearish in the mid term (Swings). Price should be headed downwards as bullish swing traders take profit. Take care entering as Gold is STILL on its long term Bull Run. Keep stop loss at a reasonable level and watch out for news affecting price.
Trade closed: target reached
As expected, price reached the bottom of the 4H SR zone and is looking for a rebound. Volume is weak but a Bullish Engulfing candle formed, followed by candles with strong lower rejection. Price will likely return to 1710 levels (another 4h SR zone). Watch out for this retest as we get closer to the upper boundary of the Bull Pennant.Previous weeks have been slightly bearish, perhaps as institutional traders gather liquidity for the longer term Bull Rally. Non-Farm Payroll data also rolls out tomorrow (8/5/2020). While expectations have most likely been accurately priced in, do be careful of sudden price movements.
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