Italian referendum - News breakdown

Updated

In this chart I show you the key events and times of occurrence ahead of the news today.
The US futures market will probably open with a gap due to opening after the polls come out, but there will be plenty of time to await the official results, so, the market might remain volatile and directionless before the results are out.

I'd reccomend you keep risk small if trading into this event, either keeping positions small, or using very wide stops, since any gap through your stop could prove to be disastrous if levered, like has happened in the past, too many times this year...(think GBP flash crash, 'The Trumpening', Brexit...).
I think we'll see a risk off rally, but I'm not entirely sure US equities will be impacted negatively (despite what many people think).

Good luck today,
Ivan Labrie.

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(I had to repost this one, it had a typo, and I decided to include a few more important charts for reference)

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Big momentum to the downside but for now the Euro is stuck at support.

I'm monitoring, but flat currencies. Only in Bitcoin, metals, equities, oil at the moment.

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For reference, the level here is quite significant, so I doubt we see a new low under the thick green dashed line. That's the low of the previous uptrend start, which happened during an ECB conference.

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This is a good way of explaining it:

"The referendum gives voters a say on a package of electoral reforms which the Prime Minister says should help shake up Italy's gridlocked system of government.

Currently the two houses of parliament have exactly equal powers, so little can happen when they are in disagreement. Mr Renzi wants to reduce the size and power of the senate to remove this barrier to his economic reforms.

He also wants the senate to be made up of officials such as local politicians from across the country, rather than directly elected.
Mr Renzi also wants to take power back from some Italian regional governments.

It is not straightforward, however, resulting in a complex referendum question."

"Voters are asked to say Yes or No to this unusually lengthy question: "Do you approve the text of the constitutional law regarding 'provisions to overcome equal bicameralism, reducing the number of MPs, the containment of operating costs of the institutions, the elimination of the CNEL and the revision of Title V of Part II of the Constitution' approved by Parliament and published in the Official Gazette no. 88 of 15 April 2016?""

So, making any kind of conjectureon direction, based on this vote is a bit problematic I think.

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One thing is certain, it's used as a fear mongering tool by the usual suspects and media outlets that have been shouting the end is near.

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Ok, little time left for the results to come out, but looks like the NO camp won and Renzi already said he'll resign. Now, what does this mean for the market, right now? Seems like not a whole lot. As volatility recedes, I think we'll resume the normal course of things before the event, if anything, there's one less risk event in the table for people holding off from certain bets.

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"One thing is certain, it's used as a fear mongering tool by the usual suspects and media outlets that have been shouting the end is near."

Good morning...risk on still viable it seems. I'm net long still, but added positions in metals and miners last week, and a couple shorts. This event is pretty trivial in the short term. Like Brexit, but more toned down in the short term.

There's time left before it can affect anything.

IvanLabrie

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