1. Trend Overview
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently in a strong and confirmed uptrend, as seen from the ascending price channel.
Price continues to follow the rising trendline structure, supported by higher lows and higher highs.
Today’s breakout candle is significant—it breached the mid-range resistance, indicating further bullish continuation.
2. Key Technical Levels
Level Interpretation
3160 🎯 Major Target Level (Hedef) – upper trendline zone, psychological level, swing projection.
3043 📌 Take Profit (TP) Level – near the upper range breakout from consolidation. Short-term target.
2920 📈 Trend Tracking Level (Trend Takip Seviyesi) – critical trend-follow level; if broken down, watch closely.
2870 ⚠️ Trend Break Point for Longs – if price closes below this level, long bias is invalidated; possible reversal.
3. Moving Averages (Dynamic Support/Resistance)
Kaufman Moving Average Adaptive (KAMA) around 2908.94 – serves as dynamic mid-term support.
MA Ribbon: MA1 @ 2921, MA2 @ 2830, MA3 @ 2744 – clear layering of trend support levels.
These MAs are in a bullish configuration (short MAs above long MAs), supporting the trend.
4. Chart Pattern Interpretation
Channel Structure: Price is inside a rising price channel, respecting both support and resistance.
Breakout Confirmation: Recent close above 2920 confirms bullish strength; targeting next resistance zones.
Consolidation Zone: The green box area was prior consolidation (around 2740–2880), now acting as a base.
5. Technical Indicators Outlook
(Although not shown explicitly on the chart, the analysis assumes standard usage)
RSI likely > 60: Momentum is still strong but not overbought — supportive of continued price growth.
Stochastics likely rising from mid levels — still room for bullish push.
MACD likely in bullish crossover mode — indicating positive trend continuation.
6. Trade Strategy Plan
✅ Primary Trade Setup (Long Bias):
Criteria Details
Entry (Pullback Buy) 2920–2940 zone (use limit orders near trend follow level).
SL (Stop Loss) Below 2870 (Trend Break Point), conservative stop at 2830 (MA2).
TP1 3043 – first target and key profit-taking zone.
TP2 3160 – extended target (upper trend channel).
Risk:Reward Ratio ~1:2 minimum, high reward setup with trend support.
📈 Alternative Entry (on Breakout Retest):
Buy on retest of 3043 with SL below 3000, targeting 3160.
7. Risk Considerations
Watch 2870 and KAMA zone closely. A break and daily close below would shift structure to neutral or bearish.
Global macroeconomic shifts (e.g., unexpected Fed hawkishness or USD strengthening) could alter gold trajectory.
8. Fundamental Overlay
Inflation Hedging & Safe-Haven Demand: High interest in gold amid macroeconomic uncertainties.
Central Bank Buying remains strong globally – a supportive fundamental backdrop.
Geopolitical Tensions / USD softness continue to act as tailwinds.
📊 Summary
Bias Bullish
Immediate Trend ✅ Continuation
Trade Setup Buy the Dip / Buy Breakout
Risk Level Moderate (tight stop under 2870)
Short-Term Target 3043
Medium-Term Target 3160
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently in a strong and confirmed uptrend, as seen from the ascending price channel.
Price continues to follow the rising trendline structure, supported by higher lows and higher highs.
Today’s breakout candle is significant—it breached the mid-range resistance, indicating further bullish continuation.
2. Key Technical Levels
Level Interpretation
3160 🎯 Major Target Level (Hedef) – upper trendline zone, psychological level, swing projection.
3043 📌 Take Profit (TP) Level – near the upper range breakout from consolidation. Short-term target.
2920 📈 Trend Tracking Level (Trend Takip Seviyesi) – critical trend-follow level; if broken down, watch closely.
2870 ⚠️ Trend Break Point for Longs – if price closes below this level, long bias is invalidated; possible reversal.
3. Moving Averages (Dynamic Support/Resistance)
Kaufman Moving Average Adaptive (KAMA) around 2908.94 – serves as dynamic mid-term support.
MA Ribbon: MA1 @ 2921, MA2 @ 2830, MA3 @ 2744 – clear layering of trend support levels.
These MAs are in a bullish configuration (short MAs above long MAs), supporting the trend.
4. Chart Pattern Interpretation
Channel Structure: Price is inside a rising price channel, respecting both support and resistance.
Breakout Confirmation: Recent close above 2920 confirms bullish strength; targeting next resistance zones.
Consolidation Zone: The green box area was prior consolidation (around 2740–2880), now acting as a base.
5. Technical Indicators Outlook
(Although not shown explicitly on the chart, the analysis assumes standard usage)
RSI likely > 60: Momentum is still strong but not overbought — supportive of continued price growth.
Stochastics likely rising from mid levels — still room for bullish push.
MACD likely in bullish crossover mode — indicating positive trend continuation.
6. Trade Strategy Plan
✅ Primary Trade Setup (Long Bias):
Criteria Details
Entry (Pullback Buy) 2920–2940 zone (use limit orders near trend follow level).
SL (Stop Loss) Below 2870 (Trend Break Point), conservative stop at 2830 (MA2).
TP1 3043 – first target and key profit-taking zone.
TP2 3160 – extended target (upper trend channel).
Risk:Reward Ratio ~1:2 minimum, high reward setup with trend support.
📈 Alternative Entry (on Breakout Retest):
Buy on retest of 3043 with SL below 3000, targeting 3160.
7. Risk Considerations
Watch 2870 and KAMA zone closely. A break and daily close below would shift structure to neutral or bearish.
Global macroeconomic shifts (e.g., unexpected Fed hawkishness or USD strengthening) could alter gold trajectory.
8. Fundamental Overlay
Inflation Hedging & Safe-Haven Demand: High interest in gold amid macroeconomic uncertainties.
Central Bank Buying remains strong globally – a supportive fundamental backdrop.
Geopolitical Tensions / USD softness continue to act as tailwinds.
📊 Summary
Bias Bullish
Immediate Trend ✅ Continuation
Trade Setup Buy the Dip / Buy Breakout
Risk Level Moderate (tight stop under 2870)
Short-Term Target 3043
Medium-Term Target 3160
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.