Gold's weekly Bearish triangle (Update 2)
Goodday traders, I hope you are enjoying your weekend with your friends and loves ones.
A massive $35 dollar red candle is what gold printed on the last day of the week, pushed fundamentally by the better than expected retail sales data. The candle is engulfing, massive and full with almost no wick on the downside. This signals the presence of sellers from the 1800 psychological pricelevel after Thursday's hanging man candle, and it shows there will be some 'more pain before more gain' for the yellow shiny metal.
📑 FOMC MInutes
Minutes of the Fed’s September meeting confirmed this week that a tapering of stimulus is all but certain to start this year, although policymakers are sharply divided over inflation and what they should do about it. This in part can also be explained to be bullish for precious metals as investors flock to hedge their risks before the announcement in November, but this need to materialize in the coming weeks.
📊 US GDP October 26th
After the NFP, CPI & FOMC Minutes, the next risk event will be the US GDP data release on October 26th. After Goldman Sachs lowered their GDP forecast for a 3rd straight month, it is expected that the US will print a much lower GDP than previously assumed. This is obviously extremely bullish for gold as I mentioned before (stagflation), but before the GDP data I expect to see a higher low around 1740-1745.
📉 Technicals
Technically I expect to see a bullish retrace now and I want to see price action around the 1780-1785 pricezone, since the H4 50 SMA support still intact. There is still a chance we see 1810 before the dump to 1745 and it all depends if gold bulls can reclaim the important 1780-1785 pricezone, but in normal circumstances I expect the price to continue falling from that level towards 1740-1745. If the bullish defenseline fails, expect much bigger losses towards 1700.
All to be played out in the last 2 weeks of this month.
Cheers,
Cesaro
A massive $35 dollar red candle is what gold printed on the last day of the week, pushed fundamentally by the better than expected retail sales data. The candle is engulfing, massive and full with almost no wick on the downside. This signals the presence of sellers from the 1800 psychological pricelevel after Thursday's hanging man candle, and it shows there will be some 'more pain before more gain' for the yellow shiny metal.
📑 FOMC MInutes
Minutes of the Fed’s September meeting confirmed this week that a tapering of stimulus is all but certain to start this year, although policymakers are sharply divided over inflation and what they should do about it. This in part can also be explained to be bullish for precious metals as investors flock to hedge their risks before the announcement in November, but this need to materialize in the coming weeks.
📊 US GDP October 26th
After the NFP, CPI & FOMC Minutes, the next risk event will be the US GDP data release on October 26th. After Goldman Sachs lowered their GDP forecast for a 3rd straight month, it is expected that the US will print a much lower GDP than previously assumed. This is obviously extremely bullish for gold as I mentioned before (stagflation), but before the GDP data I expect to see a higher low around 1740-1745.
📉 Technicals
Technically I expect to see a bullish retrace now and I want to see price action around the 1780-1785 pricezone, since the H4 50 SMA support still intact. There is still a chance we see 1810 before the dump to 1745 and it all depends if gold bulls can reclaim the important 1780-1785 pricezone, but in normal circumstances I expect the price to continue falling from that level towards 1740-1745. If the bullish defenseline fails, expect much bigger losses towards 1700.
All to be played out in the last 2 weeks of this month.
Cheers,
Cesaro
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