Continuing directly from post #7, this if the intermediate draft until 4/11, simultaneously the final public intermediate draft. From a technical perspective from doing this 10 years now, this can be consider a semi-perfect draft on an 14-trading-day basis (now to 4/11). It's incredibly difficult to manually do it much better. If you've followed me long enough, it's usually the third set of hi-lights after the first and the second sets define the range. In chart above, yellow and the first set was post #6, blue and the second was #7, this red draft is not quite the "final adjustment/draft" I was going to post originally for this post - though same set - but it's from this chart I posted right before it:
Right before I am posting this, price is trading 3020.95 at 11:18 AM ET, 03/25/25 and in my humbled opinion, this is the within 5 points of the floor RIGHT NOW IF NOT ALREADY AT THE FLOOR. If I don't have a short/intermediate long position, I would watch 1-min bar for an RIGHT NOW.
Will add more immediately.
Right before I am posting this, price is trading 3020.95 at 11:18 AM ET, 03/25/25 and in my humbled opinion, this is the within 5 points of the floor RIGHT NOW IF NOT ALREADY AT THE FLOOR. If I don't have a short/intermediate long position, I would watch 1-min bar for an RIGHT NOW.
Will add more immediately.
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11:46 AM ET, first a typo in the title.1) it should've said evidence for 3879++
2) because the resulting chain reaction for this move makes the May high HIGHER
3) like this:
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4) in chart above, do I think price can break 3879?5) yes, but really not by a lot
6) I do not see price hitting 4000
7) so the only target above 3879 is 3970
8) and this is VERY NOT OBVIOUS, and couldn't be obvious until July
9) so here's what is obvious for the remaining 11 months of this "12-month basis"
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a) we will top VERY EARLY IN AUGUST, SO FIRST WEEK OF AUGUSTb) it will be 3879-3970, at TOP OF RUNAWAY TOP
c) THERE IS A STRONG REASON FOR 3963
d) but you can't know that until 3500 - 3600 in July
e) until then it is 3885-2885, high-low
f) this low will come in November 2885
g) I have several reasons for this 2885 target now
h) if the high is closer to 3970, then this low May rise to 2955-ish
i) whatever the case maybe, it's going to VERY CLOSE TO 1000 PT RETRACE
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k) I have massive evidence now that anything under 2585 WILL NOT GET HITl) and WHETHER OR NOT BEARS CAN BREAK THE NOVEMBER LOW DEPENDS ON:
m) if they can stop a 550-pt rebound from November to February 2026
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2:30 PM ET, 3019.XX, here is the 12H bar chart and post for next 11 months as reference for later:
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1) in post above, I will cover price as I usually do semi continuously through 3/282) beyond that I will post directions
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Notes above written wrong, should be like this: 1) in post above is future reference for this move should you want it
2) I will continue to cover price here semi continuously through 3/28
3) that will cover the move to 3100 and the first check down
4) beyond that I will post directions for people that wants it
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5) meanwhile, here is the small shift sideways: Note
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- long story short, match all time high on Wednesday, maybe early- new all time high to 31xx Thursday, but late
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1) so in chart above, when we hit 2875-29xx whatever THIS NOVEMBER 2) will be comparable to this move in October of year 2008:
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3) this when gold retraced from 1031 to 681 in 2008 recession4) and silver got rug pulled TO $8.50
5) but the final run gold only moved to 1920 or +182%
6) silver moved 8.50 to 49.90+ or 487%
7) KEEP IN MIND THAT 681/1031 IS -34%
8) let's say gold somehow hit 3914 vs current call of 3879 (which is in the zone)
9) A SIMILAR DROP WOULD PUT PRICE AT 2585
10) so even though I have the call at 28xx, it CAN move down to 2585
11) we just can't "know that" until October probably
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12) continuing in chart above13) so the forecast through end of Friday is hitting those first 2 boxes
14) I don't see this changing
15) if it doesn't, I won't add anything here
16) need tie to work on new group, link is near the top if you are on desk top
17) if you are on your phone, link is below, right before comments
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7.18 AM ET, so after my "MUST MOVE VERTICAL NOW" comment before I slept last night... 1) price jumped 20 pts in the hours after to 3032
2) but dropped and now trading 3026.xx
3) what this means is that price is still fighting to
4) to hit the first box ... which I defined as 3103 BEFORE FRIDAY
5) what can we say this morning?
6) a slowed and deformed red route is still
7) THE FAVORITE VS ENTIRE FIELD better than 60/40
8) but the target and time have to move bit to compensate
9) so let's say 6 AM ET FRIDAY which adds 6 hours
10) and let's drop that 3103 to 3093-3103
11) and the shape of the move is more curved so...
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12:41 AM THURS, 3/27, after 3038.xx, what I can say about this??1) pattern seems to say that the 4/11 top should be 3185-3225
2) trend demands 3265-3280
3) because this move has had so much hesitation ...
4) it looks different now
5) so the boxes mean nothing until I have a better map
6) long story short, no change in position or overall outlook
7) but there maybe changes in details still 2 weeks out
8) I will add complete notes today or tomorrow
9) after that I will only post in the group
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3/27/25, 10:51 AM ET, after 3058 new all time high1) so my FIRST READ is that if it comes down again to TRY TO HIT second box
2) it is probably only going to hit THE TOP OF THE BOX AT BEST
3) meaning what?
4) meaning after 3100-ish should be a tag of 3055 again
5) but the top of second box is 3045
6) there-in lies the first major change of to this pattern
7) it's basically a slight shift up
8) this implies that DESPITE BEING LATE for red route's run up
9) PRICE CAN BE EARLY FOR THE REMAINDER
10) long story short, we still have an improbable shot at second box
11) third box is beginning to look fuzzy
12) I already stated up the page that fourth box will likely miss
13) so for the people still using this chart after I move to the private group
a) the hi-lights in chart at top represent the entire range
b) and it's not looking like it will follow any particular color
c) that's what I meant by looking different
d) but my trend engine is still targeting 3278
e) HOWEVER, THE PATTERN FOR PRICE ACTION ONLY CALLS FOR 3225 MAX
14) so keep that in mind as I finish this post
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15) in chart above, if you compare what is happening vs the charts from my phone...16) which is 2 charts above this marked "MORE LIKE THIS"
17) this bounce is way too fast for the short term pattern
18) this is because the sideways stall is closing the window for first box under 21 hours now
19) so bulls are forced to move up or get dragged out like yellow now, starting with a drag to 3030
20) BUT OPENING NEW YORK TOMORROW AT 3070
21) SHOULD THIS HAPPEN, this would bet the very first signal for a 3225 OR LESS TOP
22) as opposed to a 3275 OR MORE TOP
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23) but by no means a sure thing yet24) meanwhile, that would also mean the end of this post (I will post #9 in private group)
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25) so in chart above, at 3054.xx right now, and it looks like bears want to....26) push down to 3030 and test the hard floor which is 3023-3027
27) this would prevent first box from getting hit
28) and change the pattern meaningfully, especially before 04/02
29) while bulls are still favored above 22-min bars
30) when it comes to daily-weekly prices, small bars usually dominate
31) so unless Tokyo moves to 3060 in 2 hours AND KEEP GOING...
32) that's a wrap for this post, I will post PART 9 in the group as soon as I have it
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9:41 PM, I was already working on a work-up for POST #9 but red route is still alive1) so in notes above I wrote in "31) so unless Tokyo moves to 3060 AND KEEP GOING..."
2) check and check
3) but because of ENTIRE TREND BREAK DOWN...
4) there can be NO STALLING
5) here:
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6) chart above's yellow route is my work up for POST #9 7) posted that in the group 2 hours ago, thinking that bulls were giving up
8) so they broke up JUST IN TIME...
9) but chart above shows the what price is running into ...
10) its trading 3071.83 new all time high as I type
11) but it cannot stall because it is simultaneously "IN RUG PULL POSITION"
12) to the black diagonal which is a follow through of yellow route
13) so in chart above red arrow is current trend line of move up
14) blue is "expiration of 3093-3103 by 6 AM tomorrow"
15) target/time given yesterday
16) black line is surrender to yellow route
17) which is work-up for POST #9
18) so until red route dies, I will finish this post (#8 you are reading as promised)
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19) so at 10:05 PM we have 8 hours20) but only if price hold trend
21) on the other hand, 3073 is less than 1% from 3103
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03/28/25, 10:14 AM ET, 3080.15 after 3086 new all time high at London open 6 hours ago, consider:Note
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28) in chart above, the dashed red line in chart above is 2-min bar Bollinger limit, or very short term29) replay chart at top, you will see that we are 12 hour late vs red route
30) in that sense, where the first box at 3100-ish ended 10 hours ago
31) the second box from 3030-3045 ends before London opens Monday
33) that is to say - not accounting for intermediate trends - that bears has to Monday afternoon
34) to hit 3030-3045
35) THIS IS VERY VERY NOT OBVIOUS AT ALL
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41) FOR REFERENCE, when you zoom and switch bars to small bar42) TREND LINES ALWAYS SHIFT A BIT
42) that means that on 2-min bars the black line is 3053, on 8-min bars it's 3042...
43) but on 30-min bars, it's 3049, SO BE VERY AWARE OF THIS WHEN TRADING OFTEN
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66) so the verdict is ... if blue line holds.67) bears should have a shot UNDER 3042
68) but we are at that line RIGHT NOW AT 11:17 AND 3076.65
69) that's the binary for this situation
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70) 12:35 PM ET, I just realized that I quoted futures options hours wrong71) it should be 1:30 PM ET when they expire (daily)
72) so her's the 30th second bar chart again:
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73) so I am going to close out this post right now 74) and here is what I see
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75) so as it is, THIS DRAFT you are reading (post #8) is now irrelevant 76) I mean that ON A DAILY BASIS
77) in chart above that's the 2-min binary, BUT THE ODDS ARE NOT 50-50
78) they are more like 80-15-5, where orange is 80%, and blue is 5%
79) the 15% is like this...
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101) about post #9 to 4/11102) trend odds now aggressively favor 3279-3282 target
103) and in the event that it is somehow lower
104) the floor for such a drop would be 3248
105) so the range of target for 4/11 would be 3248-3282
106) STRONGLY FAVORING THE HIGH SIDE 3279-3282
107) on a 2 week basis, chart at top is super relevant in terms of momentum for 3282
108) however, that route now does not look like blue, red or yellow
109) that's a wrap for this post
110) I will post #9 in the private group BEFORE SUNDAY OPEN
111) if you are on your laptop/chrome book, the link is near the top, RIGHT OF THE INTRODUCTION
112) if you are on your phone it's right under this note BEFORE THE COMMENTS
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03/30/25, DUE TO CHANGES IN OUR PLANS, HERE'S #9 FOR EVERYONE:
Starting 03/29/25, I forecast gold for "12 Month Basis with Super Detailing" group at: t.me/+grdj3JMbOa5kOTAx
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Starting 03/29/25, I forecast gold for "12 Month Basis with Super Detailing" group at: t.me/+grdj3JMbOa5kOTAx
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.