The Hidden-Threat(s) To Gold-Trading During Friday!

Updated

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Q5SlJ7PL/

So the economic-data seemed good today for the Gold-price. Initially, at commencement of NY session today (Thursday) the USDX came rallying off its 38.2% retracement. But it quickly quietened down & retreated even further and Gold was able to lift somewhat.

There are Heads 'N' Shoulders patterns that have formed on the USDX charts from 5m right up to 30m. See the charts & USDX on the left of screen. A rally to the neckline, a retrace and it could really move hard and fast during Friday.

What I also see is hidden divergence on the 15m and 240m Stochastic charts for Gold XAUUSD. This is probably not the main concern, it would be the USDX setting up for a rally very soon.

Lets see how it plays out.

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Be careful of being LONG Gold right now.

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Short Gold Trade.

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Price has retested and will come down very soon.

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There is also an opportunity to Short Silver at the moment Re Heads n Shoulders lower timeframes.

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The XAGUSD is a big H&S, potentially lucrative. It probably needs a proper retest.

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Short Silver:
Trade Setup: Sell Head & Shoulders Pattern

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This pattern looks like it has retested already.
STOP LOSS (SL) : 28.86 (aggressive) to 29.10 (conservative)
Sell @ market price 28.80 to 28.70
TAKE PROFIT (TP) : 28.27

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UPDATE: SILVER SHORT
There is some divergence currently between the Gold-price & Silver-price. Gold is holding up somewhat in comparison to Silver. This is of course due to the bearish H&S pattern on timeframe 30 minutes as the lower timeframes would be a bit long in candle formation extending beyond the right shoulder.
Price-action looks good & I'm expecting the Gold-price to weaken as the Friday Asia session wraps up & we move into London / Germany.

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* Disclosure: I am currently also Short on this mammoth H&S (Short) on Japanese Silver. The ticker is XAGJPY. There exists a 30m & 4hr head 'n' shoulder pattern. The 4hr will play-out later today when I'm tipping the Gold price to fall from current levels.
The 30m system is active & has retested. You could place a SL @ 4140 & simply ride it down.
* Trading is risky. Please don't rely solely on my trading setups &/or financial advice. Get your advice from a variety of professional traders & conduct your own research & learning.

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The 4hr neckline for XAGJPY is about 1.95% down from current levels.

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A possible scenario of how I see the Gold-price falling in trading today. Why? Please read above, for this trade to play-out the USDX setup above would have to execute causing a sustained rally in NY trading today Friday.
* Trading is risky. These are purely my own thoughts to help prepare you for the unknown & the possibility of volatile price-movement trading Gold.

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Japanese Gold is another beautiful Heads 'N' Shoulders Short Opportunity.
XAUJPY is interesting because on the 15m timeframe it is also an M_Top Sell because it's right at the same neckline as the H&S. It's their for the picking right now. I got short in this about 10 hours ago. But that is higher risk. It's now at the neckline. I would wait for a retest above the neckline and then Short the Shite out of it.

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Friday 6th September should be called HEAD 'N' SHOULDERS Day:
Gold has a Short only 0.16% above neckline at around 2515
This is an older pattern on the 3m. Price & H & S traders probably don't care that it's a little 'long in the tooth'.
Keep an eye on 2515 & look for that Retest and a Bearish Pinbar and/or increase in Volume for your signal.

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Silver is about to FALL HARD

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Look guys, I don't want to confuse you if you are LONG Gold. I should've stated earlier, Gold for the moment appears to be creating Higher Highs in Asian trading today. In all honesty, it may & I say MAY (I am not long in gold currently). I am looking at the bigger picture for later on. Currently the USDX is asleep under 101 last time I checked. Gold could possibly get to 2528 where the real resistance begins. I
If the USDX breaks out later like I suspect it will, it will be all off bets for Long gold. But for now the uptrend looks okay to me. So keep a trailing stop and ride it up some more.
Cheers,
Chris

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I honestly do not know when it will sell off but if I were to guess I would say sooner than later. But it MAY test 2528 again.

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Here are the 4hr / Daily / Weekly Charts for XAUUSD Gold.
You can see on the 4HR left chart that ultimately price has to retest that previous TOP 3 and price needs to push through the 2530.70 level. This will occur in the next week or 2. If the USDX does NOT rally like I think it might during NY Friday (today) then Gold will today push through this resistance at 2530.70. But this won't happen if the USDX breaks out. It's been asleep for 3 days now.

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2531.70 is that next breakout number for Gold.

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Attached is the 30m 60m 120m Gold Chart.
I draw your attention to the 120m chart right of screen.
See the last TOP3? Price is currently retracing down & will more than likely turnaround and retest that TOP3 & then price will probably Test 2528.

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But only if price takes out that previous top3 on the 120m

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My apologies. That TOP 3 is the 2528 level. In any case it may get tested in the next few hours.

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Both of the Japanese Shorts In Silver & Gold look good.
Be aware that the XAGUSD H&S has cancelled out due to price increasing and taking out the right shoulder. Price manipulation I would dare say. How does price get to the neckline of an M_TOP & simultaneous H&S and then price reverses upwards. I have a theory that the market makers do not take kindly to heads n shoulders patterns but maybe I am just paranoid.

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I just had another good look at the Gold Charts. I see some weakness coming into play now. A greater move-down is more than likely.

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Gold continues to Claw its way back. The main reason behind this is that its price has plenty of room for upside movement because take a look at the USDX. It's down around 100.80 now.

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The USDX is moving down in a 15m falling wedge. But heres the thing. Price tends to be bullish when it exits Falling-Wedges.

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I think I will run out of my 20 comments per thread that trading-view allows so that we don't come across as annoyances and spammers. I hope I don't annoy you.
I for a while have been watching the Daily chart for Silver & there is a bearish head n shoulders about 6.7% below current price. If there is a huge market sell off tonight, & please I am not saying categorically it will occur, but its's about a 50% possibility for my mind, so yes if this H&S were to trigger it would be very dire for the Silver price. Take a look.
Cheers,
Chris

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I am reducing that 50% bet on a USDX rally. The USDX H&S patterns FOR THE MOMENT are nullified. They form up again. LONG Gold is looking better until I see otherwise.

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IF they form up again.. I will post.

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Re TRADE Short XAUJPY
I have closed the majority of my positions.
There is a double bottom forming.
Price could and probably will break through this zone and sell off some more.
But always smart to lock in partial profits.
I recommended the Short at 359310 & it's now about 358300

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XAUJPY

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Disclosure:
The XAGJPY H&S is still a strong pattern if Gold and Silver sell-off through Friday. The issue is that price has not retested this bearish H&S.
There is also an opposing bullish H&S that I have decided to get Long in. Why? Because this one the bullish one has retested whereas the bearish Non-Inverse-pattern has not.

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XAG JPY

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Correction: Technically this one has not RETESTED. The retests should come after the right shoulder forms. As you can see from chart, this has not occurred yet.

Easy_Explosive_Trading

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