I. Daily Analysis
Overall Trend: Gold remains at the end of a converging triangle, with upper resistance at 3406 and lower support at 3360, awaiting guidance on the direction of a breakout.
Key Moving Average: The 5-day moving average at 3372 remains a short-term bullish-bearish watershed. If it holds above this level, the market will likely remain volatile and bullish. If it breaks, a pullback to 3360 or even lower is possible.
K-line Pattern: Wednesday's daily close was a small bearish candlestick, but the upward trend was not broken. Thursday's Asian session saw a high of 3398 before retreating, indicating psychological pressure at the 3400 level.
II. 4-Hour and Short-Term Analysis
Support and Resistance:
Key Support: 3370-3373 (61.8% retracement level), 3365 (morning low, bullish defensive level).
Key Resistance: 3398-3400 (psychological barrier), 3406 (upper limit of the triangle). Technical Indicators:
MACD is still in a correction phase, requiring short-term volatility to digest momentum.
The 4-hour middle line at 3371-72 resonates with the daily 5-day moving average. If the price stabilizes at this level during the European session, there is still potential for an upside move in the US session.
III. Today's Trading Strategy
1. Long Strategy (Primarily Buy on Dips)
Entry Point: If the price stabilizes after a pullback to 3370-3373, try a small buy position with a stop-loss below 3365.
Target: 3395-3400. A breakout could target 3406 or even higher.
2. Short Strategy (Approach with caution)
If the price falls below 3365, it could weaken. Short-term short positions could be targeted at 3360-3350.
If the suppression at 3406 is effective, you can try shorting, with a stop loss above 3410 and a target at 3390-3380.
3. Breakout Strategy
If the price breaks above 3406, follow the trend and buy long positions, targeting 3420-3430. Breaking below 3360: It may open up downward space, with the target at 3340-3330.
IV. Key Timeframes
European Market Trend: If 3370 holds, a second surge higher is possible in the US market; if pressure persists at 3398, a pullback to 3370-3365 is possible.
Focus on the US market: US economic data and the trend of the US dollar. If the US dollar continues to be weak, gold may be supported.
V. Risk Warning
Currently at the end of the triangle, be wary of false breakouts. It is recommended to operate with a light position and maintain strict stop-loss orders.
If 3365 falls, adjust your strategy to avoid blindly bottom-fishing.
Trade active
August 8th Gold Short-Term Trading Strategy (Key Points + Operation Plan)
Current Market Characteristics:
3400 has become a watershed between bulls and bears, having been repeatedly tested but not broken, indicating strong resistance.
Short-term market shakeouts are severe, with volatile pullbacks in the Asian and European sessions followed by a surge in the US session, but this momentum is poorly sustained and prone to a surge and then a decline.
Although the daily chart closed positive, technical indicators are diverging, indicating insufficient upward momentum. Be wary of the risk of a pullback from high levels.
Today's Key Trading Logic
1. Asia and Europe Session Strategy (Wait and See or Short Sell)
If the price finds resistance near 3400 (without a significant breakout), a light position can be used to test short positions, targeting 3385-3390, with a stop-loss above 3405.
If it breaks directly through 3408, wait for a pullback to around 3400 to enter a long position (US session strategy).
Focus on the 3381 support level: a break below indicates short-term weakness, potentially pushing prices down to 3360-3370.
2. US Market Strategy (Key Direction Selection)
✅ Scenario 1: 3408 stabilizes in the European session, long on a pullback in the US session
Entry Point: Buy on a pullback to 3395-3400
Target: 3430-3438
Stop Loss: Below 3380
✅ Scenario 2: 3381 dips below the European session, rebounds in the US session
Wait for support at 3360-3370, buy on dips after stabilization, target 3380-3400.
If 3360 breaks directly, short-term bearish trend will be reversed, targeting 3340-3350.
✅ Scenario 3: 3438-3450 surges in the US session
This area represents strong resistance. Try swing trading with a short sell order, stop-loss at 3460, and target 3400-3380.
Key Risk Management Tips
⚠ Avoid chasing highs and selling lows: The current market is subject to repeated market fluctuations, making it prone to pullbacks after a breakout. Avoid chasing highs or shorting lows.
⚠ Maintain strict stop-loss orders
⚠ Monitor the US dollar and US stock market trends: If the US dollar rebounds or risk sentiment intensifies, gold may come under pressure.
In summary: Expect intraday fluctuations between 3381 and 3408, with a follow-up move after a breakout.
The US market is the main market period, and the focus will be on whether 3400 can hold firm or whether 3381 will be lost.
If it rises to 3438+, you can arrange short positions; if it falls back to 3360-3370, you can go long on a low basis to bet on a rebound.
(Conservative investors are advised to wait for the US market's direction to become clear before taking action!)
Trade closed: target reached
August 11th Gold Trend Analysis and Strategy:
Core Logic
Bullish Factors
Strong safe-haven demand: Global trade tensions (Trump tariffs, Indian/Brazilian retaliation) and geopolitical uncertainty (expected US-Russia meeting) support gold prices.
Expectations of a Fed rate cut: Weak US employment data (worst-than-expected initial jobless claims) strengthens the possibility of a September rate cut, and the dollar is under pressure, which is positive for gold.
Central Bank Holdings: China has increased its gold reserves for nine consecutive months, a long-term bullish signal.
Bearish Risks
Technical Pressure: The 3400-3410 area is key resistance. The monthly chart has risen and fallen for four consecutive months, and the upper shadow indicates selling pressure at a high level.
Signs of Bullish Exhaustion: Despite a flurry of positive news, gold prices have failed to hold above 3400. A weakening of positive momentum or a sudden negative impact could trigger a pullback.
Key Technical Levels
Upper Resistance: 3408-3418 (a breakout could test the historical high of 3430-3450).
Support below: 3370-3360 (if broken, it could test the mid-term support levels of 3350 and 3270).
Next Week's Trading Strategy
1. Main Direction: Mainly Sell High
Entry Timing:
If gold prices rebound to the 3408-3418 support area and find resistance (if the daily chart fails to hold above 3400), short positions can be placed in batches with a stop-loss above 3425 and a target of 3370-3360. A break below targets 3350.
Aggressive Strategy: If gold prices rise rapidly to 3415-3420 in the early Asian session, a small position can be used to test short positions with a stop-loss at 3430.
2. Supporting Trading Strategy: Short-term Buy on Pullbacks
Entry Timing:
If the price first retraces back to the 3370-3360 support area and stabilizes (a positive close on the 30-minute candlestick chart), a short-term buy order can be entered with a stop-loss at 3355 and a target of 3385-3400.
Caution on Breakouts: If it falls below 3360, set strict stop-loss orders on long positions and avoid counter-trend trading.
3. Response to Breakouts
Breakout above 3418: Wait and see if it holds above 3420. If it breaks through at the daily close, discontinue your short selling strategy and wait for a higher level (3440-3450) before positioning for a medium-term short position.
Breakdown below 3360: Be cautious when chasing short positions, monitor the support level at 3350, and avoid short-term pullbacks.
Risk Warning
Sensitive News Period: Trump's policy moves and speeches by Federal Reserve officials (such as Waller's expected nomination as chairman) may trigger significant volatility.
Time Window: If a market fails to establish a direction on Friday, August 8th, be wary of a market reversal at the beginning of next week, Pay special attention to the gap (gap up or gap down) on August 11 (Monday).
In summary: Gold is supported in the short term by risk aversion and expectations of rate cuts, but technically, it faces significant pressure from high levels. It is recommended to sell short at the high resistance level of 3408-3418 and strictly stop loss. If it breaks below 3370, follow up with selling and shorting to target 3350. Long positions are only used as a supplementary strategy, with quick entry and exit.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.