Gold is again with bears. VWAP setup & Silver remains 30.10
Updated
https://www.tradingview.com/x/TILOrz5S/
My apologies if I am short one-day & long the next.
About 48 hours ago I wrote that I thought Gold would likely get a bump-up & then sell off to the 14-18 November Lows, seen in this chart below 4HR.
The main chart above shows Gold's weakness in a VWAP setup, where price, MA and the average VWAP move below VWAP (purple line).
There was also a bullish head n shoulders pattern in the Asia session today early, very low timeframes, which nobody wanted a bar of.
So lets quickly talk Silver, it sells off about 15 hours ago from a TOP2 and sells off very aggressively, but price normally turns around at the bottom and moves back up the charts.
But in XAGUSD the above has not happened. It's been sitting at the bottom around 30.09 and hourly candles show this occurring. Nobody is buying Silver down there. Silver is awaiting its big-brother to come down the corridor.
So what happens next? I think Gold sells off back down to levels near Silver and a move back to the 14-18 November lows.
Yesterday I traded gold from around 2635 up to 2650 I think it was. So it moved up nice in the Asia session. Then price stalled for 4 or 5 hours. There should've been my cue that something was not right in the long entry for gold, then reading into economic data I thought was okay was my next mistake.
I look for the bigger moves in trading which is much harder, some will put out an alert for a few pips here and there and still claim a win when their Stop was taken-out, they are stats-driven of course for their telegram channel 4! Cheers
My apologies if I am short one-day & long the next.
About 48 hours ago I wrote that I thought Gold would likely get a bump-up & then sell off to the 14-18 November Lows, seen in this chart below 4HR.
The main chart above shows Gold's weakness in a VWAP setup, where price, MA and the average VWAP move below VWAP (purple line).
There was also a bullish head n shoulders pattern in the Asia session today early, very low timeframes, which nobody wanted a bar of.
So lets quickly talk Silver, it sells off about 15 hours ago from a TOP2 and sells off very aggressively, but price normally turns around at the bottom and moves back up the charts.
But in XAGUSD the above has not happened. It's been sitting at the bottom around 30.09 and hourly candles show this occurring. Nobody is buying Silver down there. Silver is awaiting its big-brother to come down the corridor.
So what happens next? I think Gold sells off back down to levels near Silver and a move back to the 14-18 November lows.
Yesterday I traded gold from around 2635 up to 2650 I think it was. So it moved up nice in the Asia session. Then price stalled for 4 or 5 hours. There should've been my cue that something was not right in the long entry for gold, then reading into economic data I thought was okay was my next mistake.
I look for the bigger moves in trading which is much harder, some will put out an alert for a few pips here and there and still claim a win when their Stop was taken-out, they are stats-driven of course for their telegram channel 4! Cheers
Trade active
gold and silver are selling off.
i don't like to recommend short trades.
initially i thought it was a fake sell off but its been selling for a while now.
Trade closed: target reached
It's hard enough to pick winning long trades let alone trying to win a short. Short trades I think are more in the spare of the moment, like a bullish VIX Index trade where an entire market sells off on fear.
But just because I have not recommended a Short trade, because I hate to get it wrong and you lose a trade and some capital, does not mean I can't take one myself. I have on gold and its buddy silver.
This is what I saw just a few moments ago. Now MACD images have a way of changing in time, however that is more on very low timeframes, but here is the weekly (important) and also daily with bearish macd images.
But what is just as bearish for Silver is that following it getting shorted with gold a couple of hours after the Aussie session started, well Silver is still under 30 and is not recovering in price at all, plus take a look at the bearish divergence, an example in daily and weekly.
Note
In both charts you will see bearish divergence across the lows and highs, 1 example of each.Note
But wait theres' more. BEARS DIVERGENCE in GOLD.
I also detected bearish MACD divergence on the daily which is divergence across the lows dating back to June 24. And the weekly I found issues.
Note
Fibonacci retracement levels:
So here is some bearish confluence on Fibonacci retracement levels, since a few hours ago that Gold got shorted, the Gold price has stayed under the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which for mind could mean that the Short trade will be on again later for Gold and possibly Silver, but Silver is at a much lower level already because it got shorted yesterday on an intraday double top and the Silver price has stayed at those low levels and today moving lower.
Fibonacci retracement levels
Note
Note
I bet not many traders, apart from the really clued, successful traders would've bothered to as accurately as possible try to predict the downturn % amount for this bearish correction in Gold.
Now, I don't think the gold inner-sanctum really care if the gold price tanks a bit more, how about 17% seems plausible. Gold has made a big rally this year, as soon as Gold turns around, it will only take 1 to 2 weeks to climb back to ALH. Plus they get huge liquidity from gold trading by going back to previous key spots on the chart.
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