I. Gold Fundamentals Analysis
Expectations of a Fed Rate Cut Strengthen:
Weak US economic data (such as employment and manufacturing) has heightened market expectations of a September Fed rate cut, putting pressure on the US dollar and benefiting gold.
Changes in Federal Reserve officials and policy uncertainty have exacerbated market volatility and increased demand for gold as a safe haven.
Escalating Global Trade Tensions:
The Trump administration's announcement of 25% tariffs on India and other countries has sparked concerns about trade friction and heightened risk aversion in the market.
Geopolitical risks (US-Russia confrontation, Middle East tensions) have further supported gold.
Weak US Dollar:
The US dollar index's rebound has been weak. If US economic data continues to be sluggish, it could fall further, which would be bullish for gold.
II. Gold Technical Analysis
Short-Term Trend (Intraday):
Support: 3360-3350 (critical watershed), 3345 (yesterday's low).
Resistance: 3385 (yesterday's high), 3390-3400 (strong resistance zone).
Technical Indicators:
RSI is approaching overbought territory, so be wary of a short-term pullback.
The 30-minute chart shows weakening upward momentum, suggesting a possible double top formation.
Key Pattern Observations:
Double Top Risk: If gold prices encounter resistance in the 3385-3390 area and fall below 3370, it could confirm a short-term top and trigger a correction.
Breakout signal: If it stands firmly above 3400, it may open up upside space to 3420-3450.
III. Today's Gold Trading Strategy
Short-Term Trading (Buy Low and Sell High):
Short Strategy:
Short on rebounds to the 3395-3400 range, stop loss at 3405, target at 3360-3350.
Long Strategy:
Go long on pullbacks to the 3350-3360 area, stop loss at 3337, target at 3380-3390.
Breakout Trading (Trend Following):
If it breaks through 3400: Go long with a light position, targeting 3420-3430.
If it falls below 3345: It may pull back to 3330-3300, and you can short-term sell.
IV. Risk Warning
Market Sentiment Changes: Trade frictions and geopolitical events could trigger significant volatility.
V. Summary
Short-term: Gold is expected to fluctuate upwards, but strong resistance between 3385 and 3400 is expected, so be wary of a pullback.
Trading Recommendation: Wait and see during the Asian session, then trade when the market opens in Europe and the US. Maintain a strict stop-loss (≤1% position risk).
Trade active
Latest Gold Market Trend Analysis (Updated on August 6):
1. Key News Drivers
✅ Rising Expectations of a Fed Rate Cut: The market is betting on an early Fed rate cut, weakening the dollar and benefiting gold.
✅ Geopolitical and Policy Risks: Uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's tariff policy and personnel changes at the Federal Reserve are increasing safe-haven demand.
✅ A Weak Dollar Supports Gold Prices: The US Dollar Index surged and then retreated (99.07 → 98.76), indicating a weakening rebound and increasing gold's appeal.
✅ Weak Economic Data: Poor US employment data and stagnant service sector activity have weakened market confidence in the dollar, leading to capital inflows into gold.
📌 Conclusion: Gold remains supported in the short term by risk aversion and a weakening dollar, but caution is warranted for a technical pullback.
2. Key Technical Signals
📈 The bullish trend remains, but the 3400 level is a key resistance level.
Daily Chart: The price has risen for four consecutive days, approaching the 3400 resistance level. Overbought in the short term, caution is advised for a pullback.
4-Hour Chart: The price is under pressure after approaching the acceleration line, entering the bullish risk zone, increasing the risk of chasing higher prices.
1-Hour Chart: Sideways consolidation, MACD/RSI turning downward, suggesting a short-term pullback followed by an upward move.
30-Minute Chart: 3390 failed to break through after two attempts, indicating insufficient bullish momentum. 3370 becomes key support.
📌 Key Price Levels
Resistance: 3380-3390 (short-term), 3400 (psychological barrier; a break would open up upside potential).
Support: 3370 (concentrated trading area), 3350-3340 (pullback target).
3. Today's Trading Strategy
🎯 Key Strategies: The risk of a short-term pullback is increasing, but the medium- to long-term outlook remains bullish. We recommend buying low and selling high.
🔹 Short Opportunities (Short-Term)
Entry Point: 3380-3390 range, try shorting with a small position when stagnating
Stop Loss: Above 3400
Target: 3360-3350
🔹 Long Opportunities (Planning After a Pullback)
Entry Point: 3350-3340, buy low when stabilizing
Stop Loss: Below 3330
Target: 3370-3380
🔹 Breakout Strategy
If it holds above 3400: Buy after a pullback to 3390, target 3420
If it falls below 3370: Short-term short position, target 3350
4. Risk Warning
⚠️ Be wary of Fed officials' comments: Hawkish signals could weigh on gold prices.
⚠️ Geopolitical Breaking News: If risk sentiment intensifies (e.g., an escalation in the trade war), gold prices could accelerate.
📌 Final Conclusion
Short-term (1-2 days): The 3380-3400 area is under pressure, so consider shorting, targeting 3350-3340.
Medium-term (this week): If the price stabilizes below 3350, it remains a dip-buy opportunity, targeting a breakout above 3400.
Long-term (monthly): Anticipation of a Fed rate cut coupled with safe-haven support means gold still has upside potential.
Trading Recommendation: Prioritize shorting on rallies today, then enter long positions once the price has corrected! 🚀
Trade closed: target reached
Will gold break out of its range-bound trading on August 7th?
📌 Core Logic: High-level fluctuations, be wary of a pullback risk
News support for gold prices
Expectations of a Fed rate cut: Weak US economic data (employment, services) reinforce expectations of a rate cut, putting pressure on the US dollar (around 98.7), benefiting gold.
Safe-haven demand: Trump’s policy uncertainty (tariffs, personnel changes) has increased market risk aversion, and gold has been sought after as a safe-haven asset.
Key Technical Signals
Resistance: 3390-3400 (nearly two-week high, bullish risk zone; a breakout targets 3420-3450).
Support: 3370 (short-term bull-bear boundary), 3360-3350 (key support for pullbacks).
Short-term Trend:
4-Hour Chart: Price is under pressure after approaching the acceleration line, indicating a high risk of chasing higher prices.
30-minute chart: Double top resistance at 3390. If it fails to break through, it may retest 3370. A break below 3370 signals weakness, with a target of 3350.
🎯 Today's Trading Strategy
1. Short Opportunity (Priority)
Entry Point: 3385-3395 (Test short position with a small position)
Stop Loss: 3402 (Short position expires if it breaks through 3400)
Target: 3370 → 3360 (If it breaks below 3360, hold to 3350)
2. Long Opportunity (Buy low after a pullback)
Entry Point: Go long if it stabilizes at 3360-3350
Stop Loss: 3345 (Prevent false breakouts)
Target: 3380-3390 (Hold if it breaks through 3400)
⚠️ Key Market Signals
If the Asian and European sessions continue to fluctuate above 3380, the US session may see another push towards 3400, but avoid chasing long positions. Wait for shorting opportunities at higher levels. If it quickly breaks below 3370, then turn short-term bearish and follow through to 3360-3350.
If it stabilizes at 3400 → Set stop loss for short position and switch to long position if it stabilizes on a pullback, with target at 3420-3450.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
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💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+OJSbWQ6F4KM2Mzk1
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
💥Gold trading analyst | Technology + logic dual drive
💯Intraday/band strategy analysis | Risk control first, win in stability
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.