Gold is going down since 2 months. It tried to make a higher high, but it couldn't and dropped from 2000 level. At monthly TM formed evening star pattern, which is very powerful pattern. The last bullish candle was with very big wick, it means a big rejection. The price formed double top with RSI divergence and now is going to retest the neckline at 1680 level
This is very convincing analysis, that Gold will go down, isn't it. This is a real bearish scenario.
BUT
We have to look more deeper in this picture. I combine few strategies and fundamental analysis to can look inside the picture, thats why my bias is bullish. I explain why:
Monthly Time Frame - chart patterns
1. We are on uptrend - channel
2. Gold is going up since 2006, this is the last period I can see
3. Last swing (from 1160 to 2070) was an impuls, and every impuls is followed by retracement, which was the last big triangle. After triangles normally come a very steep move in the direction of the trend, which not happened yet.
4. Gold broke the triangle to the upside, touched the last resistance at 2070 and bounced back to retest this consolidation.
5 Evening star pattern is very mean, it has to be confirmed with next candles.
Weekly TM - Wyckoff
The big triangle looks like Reaccumulation pattern. Normally when the price break a consolidation, goes back to test it.
Daily TM - Elliot Waves
Normally the triangles are wave 4 from the whole structure, fallowed by wave 5. Wave 5 consist 5 smaller waves.
I believe that the beginning of the wave 5 was 1780. So now we have to see 5 waves up.
The first wave was the impuls from 1780 to 2070
The second wave (correction) is about to end now.
4 Hour TM - Smart money concept
The price retraced to the Order Block in the area of OTE. If this OB will hold, I dont know.
1 Hour TM
Gold showed change of character, broke the trendline, broke the market structure, bounced from 1870, which is one of the key support levels. Now is going back to retest the key level.
Next week there are a lot of high impact news about US economy, next week is the first week of the month too. Thats why I think gold will make dirty moves before resume the trend.
Gold will go up from 1890 to 1840. This is my buy area. Which will be - we have to watch the price action.
Fundamentals:
There were few bad news about US economy last weeks and still Gold went down and US index up. This is an example of manipulation. When the FEDs said that will increase the interest rates, gold melted.
All economic reports are bad about US economy, we are in time with big inflation and uncertainty. The Russians and Chinese investors can buy only Gold to safe their money. Bitcoins are no more allowed in China.
I expect next week more bad news about US economy.
More analysis you can see in my group.
This is very convincing analysis, that Gold will go down, isn't it. This is a real bearish scenario.
BUT
We have to look more deeper in this picture. I combine few strategies and fundamental analysis to can look inside the picture, thats why my bias is bullish. I explain why:
Monthly Time Frame - chart patterns
1. We are on uptrend - channel
2. Gold is going up since 2006, this is the last period I can see
3. Last swing (from 1160 to 2070) was an impuls, and every impuls is followed by retracement, which was the last big triangle. After triangles normally come a very steep move in the direction of the trend, which not happened yet.
4. Gold broke the triangle to the upside, touched the last resistance at 2070 and bounced back to retest this consolidation.
5 Evening star pattern is very mean, it has to be confirmed with next candles.
Weekly TM - Wyckoff
The big triangle looks like Reaccumulation pattern. Normally when the price break a consolidation, goes back to test it.
Daily TM - Elliot Waves
Normally the triangles are wave 4 from the whole structure, fallowed by wave 5. Wave 5 consist 5 smaller waves.
I believe that the beginning of the wave 5 was 1780. So now we have to see 5 waves up.
The first wave was the impuls from 1780 to 2070
The second wave (correction) is about to end now.
4 Hour TM - Smart money concept
The price retraced to the Order Block in the area of OTE. If this OB will hold, I dont know.
1 Hour TM
Gold showed change of character, broke the trendline, broke the market structure, bounced from 1870, which is one of the key support levels. Now is going back to retest the key level.
Next week there are a lot of high impact news about US economy, next week is the first week of the month too. Thats why I think gold will make dirty moves before resume the trend.
Gold will go up from 1890 to 1840. This is my buy area. Which will be - we have to watch the price action.
Fundamentals:
There were few bad news about US economy last weeks and still Gold went down and US index up. This is an example of manipulation. When the FEDs said that will increase the interest rates, gold melted.
All economic reports are bad about US economy, we are in time with big inflation and uncertainty. The Russians and Chinese investors can buy only Gold to safe their money. Bitcoins are no more allowed in China.
I expect next week more bad news about US economy.
More analysis you can see in my group.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.