W4 Wave Price and Time Analysis for Gold - Elliott Wave Scenario
W0-W1: 1614-2079 (+465 points)
W1-W2: 2079-1810 (-269 points)
W2-W3: 1810-2790 (+980 points)
Let's create scenarios following the rules:
Scenario 1: Simple W4 Calculation
Since W2 is complex, W4 will likely be simple (alternation principle)
W3 movement = 980 points
Maximum allowed for W4 = 50% of W3 = 490 points
Therefore first target range: 2790 - 490 = 2300 level
Scenario 2: Price Relationships Based on Rules
W4 should be > 38% of W3 (minimum requirement)
38% of 980 = 372.4 points
This gives us minimum target: 2790 - 372.4 = 2417.6
Price Target Range Based on Rules:
Minimum: 2417.6 (38% retracement)
Maximum: 2300 (50% retracement)
Most probable: 2350-2400 (based on 43-45% retracement)
Time Considerations:
Since W2 was complex, W4 should be shorter in time
W4 should take between 20% to 100% of W2's time duration
Key Warning Signs:
If W4 goes below 2079 (W1), it would invalidate W5 setup
If W4 exceeds 50% of W3 (below 2300), probability of 5th wave failure increases
Most Likely Scenario:
A simple zigzag correction targeting 2350-2400 area, taking less time than W2, with oscillator crossing zero line at least twice during the movement.
The ideal scenario would see W4 as a zigzag pattern staying above 2300, not penetrating W1 high of 2079, and completing within a shorter timeframe than W2.
W1-W2: 2079-1810 (-269 points)
W2-W3: 1810-2790 (+980 points)
Let's create scenarios following the rules:
Scenario 1: Simple W4 Calculation
Since W2 is complex, W4 will likely be simple (alternation principle)
W3 movement = 980 points
Maximum allowed for W4 = 50% of W3 = 490 points
Therefore first target range: 2790 - 490 = 2300 level
Scenario 2: Price Relationships Based on Rules
W4 should be > 38% of W3 (minimum requirement)
38% of 980 = 372.4 points
This gives us minimum target: 2790 - 372.4 = 2417.6
Price Target Range Based on Rules:
Minimum: 2417.6 (38% retracement)
Maximum: 2300 (50% retracement)
Most probable: 2350-2400 (based on 43-45% retracement)
Time Considerations:
Since W2 was complex, W4 should be shorter in time
W4 should take between 20% to 100% of W2's time duration
Key Warning Signs:
If W4 goes below 2079 (W1), it would invalidate W5 setup
If W4 exceeds 50% of W3 (below 2300), probability of 5th wave failure increases
Most Likely Scenario:
A simple zigzag correction targeting 2350-2400 area, taking less time than W2, with oscillator crossing zero line at least twice during the movement.
The ideal scenario would see W4 as a zigzag pattern staying above 2300, not penetrating W1 high of 2079, and completing within a shorter timeframe than W2.
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