XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up details

Updated

The Federal Reserve opted to maintain interest rates at their current levels and delay any potential rate cuts until at least December. Officials foresee only a modest quarter-percentage-point reduction for the year, emphasizing the importance of managing inflationary pressures.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted that despite robust growth and low unemployment rates, the central bank remains cautious, waiting for clear economic signals before making any adjustments. The market reacted to this news, with gold prices climbing over 1% on Friday, fueled by expectations of a possible rate cut soon. Concurrently, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield trended lower towards 4.2%, influencing the XAU/USD pair upward as the week came to a close.

This video offers a detailed strategy to help navigate various market scenarios, empowering us to make informed decisions as the market digests the latest developments.

XAUUSD Technical Overview:
In this video, we take a detailed look at the XAUUSD chart, combining both technical and fundamental perspectives.

Our attention is still fixed on the key level at $2,335 for the upcoming week, historically significant and poised to steer trading dynamics. A sustained momentum above this mark could fuel further buying interest, potentially paving the way for fresh highs. Conversely, a bearish tilt below $2,325 might signal a resurgence of bearish sentiment.

Join me as we break down these factors and explore potential trading opportunities in the gold market. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and hit the notification bell to stay updated with my latest analysis and insights.

#GoldMarket #GoldInvestment #GeopoliticalImpact #InterestRates #AsianDemand #GoldETFs #MarketAnalysis #Investing #TradingTips📺🔔💼

Disclaimer Notice:
Trading in the foreign exchange market and other instruments carries high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content provided here is for educational purposes only. Evaluate your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Note

The US Dollar (USD) demonstrates resilience against Gold (XAU) as the new week begins. The US Dollar Index (DXY) maintains modest gains, bolstered by a recovery in US Treasury bond yields following last week’s decline.

Fed's Forecast Adjustment and Its Impact

The Federal Reserve recently adjusted its forecast, reducing the expected number of rate cuts this year from three to one, as opposed to its March projection. This adjustment supports elevated US Treasury bond yields, providing a thriving environment for the USD and driving flows away from safe-haven assets like gold.

Potential for Rate Cuts Amid Inflation Easing

Despite this, there remains a possibility of two rate cuts by the Fed this year due to signs of easing inflationary pressures in the US. This scenario could temper aggressive USD buying and potentially lend support to Gold prices. Furthermore, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and political uncertainties in Europe may also help limit losses for Gold.

Market Positioning and Demand Zone Considerations

Given these dynamics, it is prudent to wait for additional selling pressure before anticipating a resumption of XAU/USD's pullback, especially as the price action remains above the demand zone identified in the video.

Focus on Fed Comments and Market Structure

With no significant macroeconomic data releases scheduled for today, market participants will closely monitor comments from Federal Reserve officials for fresh impetus. In light of these developments, the newly identified structure on the 1H timeframe will guide today's trading activity. We will provide a detailed review of the current market dynamics during our upcoming live session... See you soon!

Good Morning

Trade active

#XAUUSD

Buy position triggered.

Trade closed manually

#XAUUSD

Buy position hits stop-loss as selling pressure resumes. Secure the sell position now.

Trade active

Following yesterday's sell position being closed at break-even, renewed selling pressure has emerged, triggering a new sell position at the $2,315.50 level as the US Dollar attempts a rebound despite declining US Treasury bond yields.

US Macro Data and Inflation Outlook

Recent US macroeconomic data indicates subsiding inflationary pressures, maintaining hopes for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. This scenario lends some support to safe-haven assets like gold. However, the commodity lacks bullish conviction and has remained confined to a range-bound structure since the beginning of the week.

Fed's Hawkish Stance and Its Impact

The Fed's hawkish outlook, reaffirmed last week, continues to support elevated US Treasury bond yields, reviving demand for the US Dollar. This dynamic is likely to cap any significant appreciation in gold prices. Additionally, a generally positive risk tone may further limit the uptrend.

Considerations

Given these factors, it is prudent to secure the current sell position while monitoring for significant signals that may indicate the potential direction of price action for the rest of the week. Further updates will be provided as the situation evolves.

Good Morning

Trade active

#XAUUSD

Retail Sales data comes in below market expectation; As market digest the implication of this data to the Fed Monetary policy, the structures on the chart remain valid for trading opportunities.

Trade active

BUy triggered; secure position

Trade active

#XAUUSD

Two buy positions triggered; secure some profit

Trade active

All three buy positions from yesterday's session remain active, currently yielding a total of 250 pips in profit as Gold consolidates near our key weekly level of $2,335.

Trading activities remain confined within a familiar range held over the past 10 days as traders await clarity on the timing of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) potential interest rate cuts before placing new directional bets.

The Fed's hawkish stance at the end of the June policy meeting projected only one rate cut this year. However, the market still anticipates the possibility of two rate cuts in 2024 amid signs of easing inflation in the US. Additionally, weaker US Retail Sales data released on Tuesday indicated signs of consumer exhaustion, bolstering expectations for a Fed rate cut in September and another in December.

Given these uncertainties, it is prudent to secure all existing buy positions while we monitor how the market reacts to our key level of $2,335. Stay tuned for further technical updates.

Good Morning

Note

#XAUUSD

Following our discussion during our live session, we have a new structural set-up on the 15 Minutes timeframe to guide trading activities today.

NB: The bearish expectation is considered a counter-trend opportunity as the structures on the 1H time frame remain valid.

Trade active

#XAUUSD

Buy position triggered; secure position

Trade active

#XAUUSD

The second buy position is triggered; secure position

Trade closed manually

#XAUUSD

All buy positions closed. Regroup for re-entry as the structure on the 15 Min Timeframe remains valid for new trading opportunities.

Trade active

#XAUUSD

Sell position triggered; Secure position

Trade active

#XAUUSD

The sell position hits stop-loss as buying pressure resumes. Re-entry on the buy position is triggered; secure position.

Note

Due to the extended sideways trading activities, it is important that our stop-loss is wide enough to contain the choppy market condition and the potential volatility.

Trade active

All buy positions from yesterday's trading session have been closed with a minimum profit of 300 pips as selling pressure resumed during the Asian session. The price of gold is now at a technical crossroads that could define the directional trend for the rest of the week. Trading activity is currently at a confluence where the ascending trendline intersects with the week's key level at $2,335. The critical question is whether the price will respect this structure to continue the uptrend or break down to incite a sell-off.

The path of least resistance appears bullish, especially considering the gains from safety demand amid rising geopolitical tensions. Gold could see increased demand as investors remain concerned over the intensifying geopolitical tension between Israel and Lebanon.

On the economic data front, traders are bracing for the outcome of the Bank of England (BoE) policy meeting today. Lower interest rates are overall positive for gold since they reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Thus, a rate cut, even in the UK, could stimulate demand for gold.

In light of these developments, the chart structure remains valid for trading opportunities today. The ascending trendline will play a significant role in guiding our trading decisions.

Good Morning

Trade active

#XAUUSD

Secure the buy position now as the US Initial Jobless claims comes in below market expectations.

Trade active

#XAUUSD

A minimum of two buy positions running with over 400 pips in profit; secure some profit now as we look our for new trading opportunities.

Trade closed: target reached

#XAUUSD

Following the profit taken on the last buy positions, a new trading set-up is identified ahead of the last trading day of the week.

We shall discuss this in detail during our upcoming live session tomorrow morning.

Note

Gold prices (XAU/USD) showed limited movement in the Asian session and continued to consolidate the bullish trend seen in the previous day. The US Treasury bond yields are trending higher following a significant increase on Thursday, driven by expectations of new supply entering the market next week. This upward movement in bond yields is viewed as a key factor putting pressure on safe-haven assets like gold.

However, the softer US economic data released yesterday, incites expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is not supporting the US Dollar (USD) and is, in turn, supporting gold prices. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further contribute to a bullish outlook for gold. Any potential downward correction in gold prices may present a buying opportunity [buy window identified on the chart], with limited downside potential as market participants await the flash global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for new market direction.

Good Morning

Trade active

#XAUUSD

UPDATE

Trade active

Sell position triggered at the breakdown of the $2,358.45 and currently running with 190 pips profit; secure some profit as price is within the buy zone we identified during our live session this morning.

Trade active

Below is the follow-up detail to the XAU/USD as we prepare for the new trading week [24th - 28th June 2024].

darcsherry

Trade smart. Trade consciously

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XAUUSD | GOLDSPOT | New perspective | follow-up details

by darcsherry

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