Long

RUMORS OF A PIVOT REQUIEM PART 4, LAST STRONG ENTRY FOR 3850.

Continuing from notes in PART 3, this post serves several purposes. Let's summarize the "LONG TO 3850" first. I have already expounded on this subject several times but in danger of repeating myself:

1) we are well past "the entry" weeks ago at 2590s
2) the last "good entry" for 3850 is actually in March, 2650-2670
3) but the last STRONG ENTRY, is about 2610-2630
4) somewhere between 01/23 and 01/29, 01/29 is JANUARY FOMC
5) your entry is here and EXIT 3825 even though ceiling is 3965
6) so I am calling the exit about 140 under what I think the high should be
7) the exit, if early, is Halloween 2025, or 10/31, this year
8) the exit, if late, is Valentines' Day 2026 (basically a year out)
9) that's a wrap on this subject

Secondly, the route to 3965 can be split into three distinct sections if you wanted to trade it as intermediate swing trades. The first of which is rally to 2850-ish. In chart above:

- I attempted this entry the first time December 8th at first arrow.
- I called it off at 2718.
- I attempted this entry the second time on December 18th at second arrow.
- I called it off at 2648.
- THE FINAL ATTEMPT AT ENTRY FOR FIRST SECTION RALLY TO 2850 will be...
- ... somewhere between January 23rd and January 29th from 2610-2630.
- So that's what third arrow is pointing at.
- In summary, buy first bold box, exit second bold box.
- That is a wrap on on the first of 3 legs to 3965.

The third use for this chart is to call THE ENTRY FOR THE SECOND LEG in mid March right around March 19th FOMC.
- The second leg will begin around March FOMC WHERE THE OVAL IS AT.
- That entry will be price is trading at RIGHT NOW, at 2659.xx as I type.
- The second leg will run to 3222-3333.

Finally, this chart will not be (and frankly does not need) another update until March 18th.
- In PART 3 notes, I discussed the elimination all long term outcomes...
- ... that disagree with 3850 (now 3965) top for this rally since 1610.
- I also stated that THE REMAINING UNKNOWN IS NOW TO 01/30.
- Conclusively, the high-low range for this time frame is illustrated above.
- Dark oranges represent high range.
- Grays represent low range.
- Light orange show what this move should look like from now through May.
- Light blue was previous draft for this time frame.
- This does not need updating until 3/18 because...
- I have accounted for ALL THE TRENDS THAT EXISTS FOR GOLD for its entire history.
- Or basically the last 5000 years of gold prices.
- For this route to change meaningfully...

Will add some notes to this soon.

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01/13, 3:42 PM ET, so for this forecast to change, price must disagree with these hi-lights here:

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8) AND REMEMBER THIS CHART FROM LAST POST:

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9) in chart above zoomed wayyyyy out
10) so you can see red arc in blue arc
11) while arcs like these do not prove anything at all
12) it does give a good illustration of where we are at vs VERY LONG TERM PRICE ACTION
13) without having to do a complete line by line breakdown of all individual trends
14) and that on all time frames

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01/13, 8:02 PM ET, SO IN CHART ABOVE NOW IS THE DECISION FOR ORANGE VS GRAY AND:

1) orange is winning
2) first arrow pointing at reaction at 2680
3) if which is now implying a slightly more bullish version of orange outcome

Note

1) the failure to hit 2680 is notable in that it reinforces this pattern
2) and that is the failure to break higher
3) the pattern continues to be the same with orange favored over gray
4) and that means an earlier AND HIGHER BOUNCE with 2685-90 ceiling next
5) this should come tomorrow 01/15
6) and the data ALREADY FAVORING THAT TOP WILL FAIL TOO UNLESS:
7) that move comes strong RIGHT NOW like this:

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8) in chart above, without examining longer term trends, it's obvious that
9) orange is more FAVORED THAN BOTH BLUE AND GRAY

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01/14, 10:50 AM ET, NY TIME, SO RED IS FAVORITE VERSION OF ORANGE

1) in chart above, looking for slow move to 2685-2690
2) and that to be rejected Wednesday (tomorrow)
3) and further down Thursday
4) and a tag of 2641 before this week ends

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5) blue means new high 2700+ before midnight tonight
6) it's 11:16 AM, so less than 13 hours for bulls to change this pattern
7) the numbers right now say this is bulls' last window to change this pattern
8) think of blue as a mirror image of red's leg down to 2640
9) so in my humbled opinion, red is favorite by a wide margin
10) if it moves like blue to 2697 but stall and reverses down
11) that just means a EVER SO SO SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERSION OF RED
12) because we are talking smaller and smaller timeframe/price action

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13) so at 11:40 AM ET, New York time, on 01/15/25
14) no change to red favorite YET, so:

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15) in chart above, I am so short on time to do a complete "continuous update" for this
16) but right this second, no change to expectations but
17) I am trying to add some notes right now

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18) so I am out of time to complete this
19) but if you've read my material for sometime
20) be aware that the "continuous updates" perform best when they ARE REALLY CONTINOUS
21) so in chart above, BLUE IS WHAT I HAVE RIGHT NOW
22) that's all I got

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23) so in theory, there is a POSSIBLE SHIFT HIGHER
24) so same pattern
25) but shifted higher
26) will add if I have time

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27) so I don't have a lot of evidence that we will breach 2700 to 2705, 2707 or something like that
28) I have a bit of short term momentum saying that is possible
29) but it's not that much more "possible than a sideways drag for 24 hours like dark blue
30) before going down
31) with that said, if were to move higher here
32) it would NOT CHANGE the overall pattern meaningfully
33) but we should still be aware of what that would look like
34) so that would be:

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35) and bear with me here, I am trying to make time

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36) so let us let this one stand for 24 hours
37) will add notes then

7 days ago

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7 days ago

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1) and we know that because of compression of short to medium term vol
2) basically squeezed bollingers at 2660 that look unbreakable until after 01/23

7 days ago

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7 days ago

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7 days ago

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7 days ago

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01/16, 10:31 AM ET, for me specifically, it means I cannot do continuous coverage
1) because wiggle room or short term 2-way vol will demand more time than I have
2) so I do not see a way forward for intermediate swing coverage
3) it just doesn't work
4) SO THEN?

7 days ago

Note

5) there's only one move to make here is BUY THE ENTRY 01-23 TO 01-30
6) the floor is now 2621 and rising
7) with the check down looking like 2631-2641

7 days ago

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8) but you are trading 9-12 months
9) and that's pretty much it
10) I can't add anymore notes because the reconciliation takes too much time

7 days ago

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11) that's a wrap for this post too
12) I leave you with this:
a) gold is in obvious strong bull market
b) just buy and hold 9 to 12 months
c) it's not that hard
d) if you REALLY WANT TO PLAY IT SAFE
e) exit 3600

7 days ago

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f) and the last STRONG ENTRY WILL BE 01/23-01/29, MAYBE 01/30
g) in any case the entire range of that check down is now 2620 to 2660
h) and the call right now is 2631-ish
i) THIS MEANS THAT THE MARCH ENTRY WILL BE HIGHER AS WELL
j) so be aware

7 days ago

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yesterday

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01/22/25 - FOR THE RECORD, REPLAY LAST POST:

RUMORS OF A PIVOT REQUIEM PART 3, NEXT UPDATE 01/29-30

yesterday

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1) so that first move is almost perfect, perfect (gray t route)
2) but the difference
3) is that the expectations now is black route (or chart right above it)
4) and the only real difference between both routes
5) is HOW LOW IS THE MARCH CHECK DOWN
6) black route says 2700-2715
7) orange route (same chart) says 2665
8) so the favored March low WILL BE 2665-2715
9) with "outliers" RIGHT AT 2650+/-15

yesterday

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10) BUT WHATEVER THAT LOW WILL BE
11) ODDS STRONGLY FAVOR IT WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE INCOMING LOW 01-27 TO 01/30

yesterday

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12) meaning closer to black/orange as opposed to gray in previous post

yesterday

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yesterday

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13) so previously, I stated that there was one strong entry left late January
14) and one "good entry" in mid-March
15) it's NO LONGER OBVIOUS THAT MARCH LOW will be "good"
16) defined as 2665 OR LOWER
17) starting 01/23 (tomorrow) is the cycle reversal down to 01/29 or 01/30
18) and ANYTHING UNDER 2642 is essentially a perfect entry

yesterday

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