GOLD(03/04): The battle around $2,900 continues

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Influenced by US President Trump's new tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and the doubling of tariffs on Chinese goods, the situation has raised concerns about a global trade war. Gold
XAUUSD
found support after the new tariff concerns and recovered to the target of 2,900 USD and broke above this level after which the rally has weakened.

Trump's tariff policy continues to boost inflation expectations while weakening economic growth expectations, and real yields continue to decline
The upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports will have an important impact on the market. If the data shows rising inflation, gold prices could fall as the market may reduce expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The market recently expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year, up from 44 basis points last week.

Trump's tariffs, which could affect nearly $2.2 trillion in annual U.S. two-way trade with China, took effect at 12:00 Hanoi time on Tuesday. China responded immediately by imposing additional tariffs of 10%-15% on some U.S. imports effective March 10 and imposing a series of new export restrictions on some designated U.S. entities, according to Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa would immediately impose 25% tariffs on $20.7 billion worth of U.S. goods.

JPMorgan said it has a long-term structural bullish view on gold and expects prices to hit $3,000 by the fourth quarter of 2025. Trump's tariffs are seen as inflationary and have prompted many investors to move money into safe-haven gold, which has gained more than 10% this year.

However, higher inflation in the US could force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high for longer, which could reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Markets are looking ahead to Wednesday's ADP jobs report and Friday's US non-farm payrolls report for more information on the Fed's interest rate path.

Gold Price Technical Outlook Analysis
XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has achieved the target of 2,900 USD, which was noted by readers in previous editions, since it found support at 2,835 USD.

The recovery momentum is weakening for now, but maintaining price action above the full price of 2,900 USD is considered a positive signal for the possibility of further price increases, and the next target is 2,942 USD in the short term, more than the all-time high of 2,956 USD.

The temporary relative strength index is also showing signs of reaction to the resistance level of 61, a further breakout towards the overbought area would be a positive signal for bullish expectations in terms of momentum.

Intraday, gold has a prospect of price recovery and notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,900 – 2,880 – 2,868USD
Resistance: 2,942 – 2,956USD

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