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GOLD → Distribution phase. When do we reach 2150?

By RLinda
Updated
XAUUSD is moving out of range. A distribution is being formed. During the trading week the price strengthens by 2.5%, and the closing of the price on Friday gives us prerequisites for further movement

snapshot

As part of the outlook, gold has quite an interesting path ahead. Interest in the metal is increasing, especially within the framework of the unstable 2023 and early 2024. All of last week was favorable for gold as the US market pulsed with negative economic data. This contributed to the end of the consolidation and the beginning of the distribution. US regulators are not doing a very good job. Inflation is still high, jobless claims are rising, GDP is falling. But what they are confidently doing well is keeping interest rates flat for extended periods of time. lol

snapshot

Prolonged consolidation is getting a denouement. Price is moving out of the triangle upward, breaking the range resistance. And the prerequisite for the resistance breakout was volume growth and consolidation formation near the upper boundary of the range. Since we see the distribution on the background of volume growth, and the closing of the daily candle on Friday indicates that the movement is not over, we can assume that the breakout of 2084 will provoke the continuation of growth to 2090, 2100 and further to 2150 - ATH.

snapshot

Based on the general situation at the moment, we can distinguish two highly probable scenarios.
Since the market is bullish, as evidenced by the previously mentioned facts, we can conclude from the current assumptions: resistance breakout, realization phase, distribution, Friday candle closing, growing volume, that we should look for further growth.

Scenario 1: Consolidation between 2087 and 2078 followed by a squeeze to 2087, breakout and rise to 2100 and 2125

Scenario 2: Correction to 2078, to Fibo 0.236. False breakout, return to the range of 2087 - 2078. Breakout of resistance and growth to ATH

Resistance levels: 2082, 2087
Support levels: 2078, 0.236 fibo, 0.382 fibo

MGC1! GC1! GOLD DXY

Regards R. Linda!
Note
From the opening of the session there is a probability to see the gap as well.
Trade active
snapshot

You can't say anything in advance until the opening.
But here are three levels.
Lines - levels from the high timeframe
Dots - levels from the low timeframe
Note
Retest of Friday's high from the opening session
Trade active
snapshot
2120 test ;))
Trade closed: target reached
2141 reached!
Ascending TriangleChart PatternsconsolidationDXYFundamental AnalysisGC1! (Gold Futures)GoldSupport and ResistanceSymmetrical TriangleTrend AnalysisTrend Line BreakXAUUSD
RLinda
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