📊The current daily trend of gold shows a strong signal of stopping the decline and reversing. Past experience shows that every time a big negative candlestick appears, it is usually followed by a cross candlestick, and accompanied by a big positive candlestick to recover the lost ground, forming a "Morning Star" pattern, marking the end of short-term adjustments and starting a new round of rises. In this round of correction, the price of gold has never effectively fallen below the middle track support, indicating that the middle track has a strong supporting role. The current center of gravity is gradually rising, and the momentum of the short position has obviously weakened. Technically, the short-term moving average pressure level is concentrated at: MA5: about 3270; MA10: about 3303.
📊If the daily line can effectively close above 3303, the market is expected to change from the "bottom shock construction stage" to the "strong unilateral pull-up stage". Once the breakthrough is confirmed, the short-term target may point to the 3500 mark.
📊In terms of wave structure, the rise started from 2832 can be divided into:
🔹The first wave rose to 2956;
🔹The second wave pulled back to 2956;
🔹The third wave extended to 3500;
🔹The fourth wave adjusted to 3201;
🔹The fifth wave main rise is currently underway, and the theoretical target is calculated based on the standard wave multiple, and it is expected to hit above 3600.
📊From a trend perspective, the overall strong bullish pattern will remain in 2024. After each deep adjustment, it is a new high. Don't blindly guess the top. The current strategy should still go with the trend.
📊The 4-hour chart shows that the gold price has completed the retracement and stabilized, and the short-term trend has entered the rising channel again. The current price has returned to the bull-dominated pattern, and the decline phase is suspected to be over.
📊Focus: Key long-short watershed: 3200;
If this position is not broken, the overall bullish trend will remain unchanged;
In terms of resistance, pay attention to the 3277 line (previously the lower track of the convergent triangle). Once it breaks through, it may open up the upward space to the 3310-3315 range (close to the annual average level).
📊In the hourly chart, gold has an obvious five-wave structure expectation:
🔸The first wave: 3201 → 3269;
🔸The second wave: stepping back to 3222;
Currently in the third wave rising stage, according to the golden section and wave theory, the third wave target is expected to be at 3332.
📊The current support point can be referenced: MA10;
The strong support range is at 3250-3252.
As long as the 3250 line does not break, bullish thinking will still dominate in the short term.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.