XAUUSD NFP ANALYSIS AND TRADE LEVEL 7-6-24 (2)
Updated
XAUUSD NFP DAY ANALYSIS 7-6-24:
Spot Gold Prices and Market Movements
Current Trends: Spot gold prices have surged to $2,387, indicating hawkish market movements. However, with the opening of the UK session, a retracement to a low of $2,340.92 has already been observed.
Upcoming Data: Looking ahead, the release of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data on June 7, 2024, is highly anticipated. Gold trading is expected to be cautious, with high trade volumes and significant numbers.
Market Closures: On Monday, the markets in China and Australia, which have a substantial influence on gold prices, will be closed due to holidays.
Influencing Factors
US Dollar and Treasury Yields: Several factors, such as hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, have revived the demand for the US Dollar across the market. Treasury bond yields have rallied to multi-week highs.
GDP Data and Jobless Claims: Thursday’s revision of GDP data from 1.3% to an estimated 1.6% suggests that jobless claims might increase, which could put pressure on the Dollar. This could affect gold values, potentially pushing them back to the $2,380-$2,400 range.
Heading towards NFP show as of writing XAUUSD SPOT GOLD Prices are crashing to $2338.45 cmp now and as mentioned in our last NFP the factors influencing gold on NFP day
This helped gold price attempt a modest comeback, having incurred steep losses on Wednesday. A surprise uptick in the Core figure will reinforce delayed and less aggressive Fed rate cut expectations, providing extra legs to the US Dollar decline while smashing gold price.
Fundamental Which Might Affect XAUUSD:7-6-24
NFP Scenarios Friday:
• 150,000 or Less: Could trigger USD selloff, boosting gold.
• 200,000 to 250,000: May keep focus on inflation without major USD impact.
• 250,000 or More: Could lead to Fed rate cut, driving USD rally and gold drop
• Crucial jobs report for May. April’s NFP increase led to USD selling pressure.
Upcoming Influences:
The future of gold prices hinges on the forthcoming US Core PCE inflation data, due later in the American trading session on Friday. The Core PCE Price Index is anticipated to rise by 2.8% year-over-year in April, maintaining the same pace as observed in March.
If the Core PCE price index exceeds expectations, it could delay anticipated aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. This situation tends to strengthen the US dollar while exerting downward pressure on gold prices.
Conversely, if the Core PCE price index shows unexpected softness, it may increase the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, potentially driving a further increase in gold prices.
Depending on forthcoming economic indicators, US inflation data might propel XAUUSD into the
$2288-$2250 Range or $2400-$2450 range
Technical Level and Analysis:
Buy at:$2323.69-$2306.23-$2286.23-$2261.91
Sell at :$2388.31-$2400.67-$2425.41-$2447.34
⚠️Warning: Do not risk more than 5% of your capital, you might lose your money
🔴Technical Status: XAUUSD: 📌
D1 SMA100-P (2260.90) Buy 🔺
H4 SMA100-P (2368.74) Sell 🔻
H1 SMA100-P (2347.88) Sell🔻
H4 SMA200-P(2351.01) Buy🔺
RSI(14): Status: Oversold
STOCHRSI(14): Status: Oversold
ROC: Status: Buy
William%R: Status: Buy
ATR(14): Status: Buy
SOC: Status: Neutral
⚠️Ongoing Geo-political Tensions: ‼️
Israel – Iran
Russia - Ukraine
US-China Relations
Middle East Instability
Taiwan-China Relations
Spot Gold Prices and Market Movements
Current Trends: Spot gold prices have surged to $2,387, indicating hawkish market movements. However, with the opening of the UK session, a retracement to a low of $2,340.92 has already been observed.
Upcoming Data: Looking ahead, the release of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data on June 7, 2024, is highly anticipated. Gold trading is expected to be cautious, with high trade volumes and significant numbers.
Market Closures: On Monday, the markets in China and Australia, which have a substantial influence on gold prices, will be closed due to holidays.
Influencing Factors
US Dollar and Treasury Yields: Several factors, such as hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, have revived the demand for the US Dollar across the market. Treasury bond yields have rallied to multi-week highs.
GDP Data and Jobless Claims: Thursday’s revision of GDP data from 1.3% to an estimated 1.6% suggests that jobless claims might increase, which could put pressure on the Dollar. This could affect gold values, potentially pushing them back to the $2,380-$2,400 range.
Heading towards NFP show as of writing XAUUSD SPOT GOLD Prices are crashing to $2338.45 cmp now and as mentioned in our last NFP the factors influencing gold on NFP day
This helped gold price attempt a modest comeback, having incurred steep losses on Wednesday. A surprise uptick in the Core figure will reinforce delayed and less aggressive Fed rate cut expectations, providing extra legs to the US Dollar decline while smashing gold price.
Fundamental Which Might Affect XAUUSD:7-6-24
NFP Scenarios Friday:
• 150,000 or Less: Could trigger USD selloff, boosting gold.
• 200,000 to 250,000: May keep focus on inflation without major USD impact.
• 250,000 or More: Could lead to Fed rate cut, driving USD rally and gold drop
• Crucial jobs report for May. April’s NFP increase led to USD selling pressure.
Upcoming Influences:
The future of gold prices hinges on the forthcoming US Core PCE inflation data, due later in the American trading session on Friday. The Core PCE Price Index is anticipated to rise by 2.8% year-over-year in April, maintaining the same pace as observed in March.
If the Core PCE price index exceeds expectations, it could delay anticipated aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. This situation tends to strengthen the US dollar while exerting downward pressure on gold prices.
Conversely, if the Core PCE price index shows unexpected softness, it may increase the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, potentially driving a further increase in gold prices.
Depending on forthcoming economic indicators, US inflation data might propel XAUUSD into the
$2288-$2250 Range or $2400-$2450 range
Technical Level and Analysis:
Buy at:$2323.69-$2306.23-$2286.23-$2261.91
Sell at :$2388.31-$2400.67-$2425.41-$2447.34
⚠️Warning: Do not risk more than 5% of your capital, you might lose your money
🔴Technical Status: XAUUSD: 📌
D1 SMA100-P (2260.90) Buy 🔺
H4 SMA100-P (2368.74) Sell 🔻
H1 SMA100-P (2347.88) Sell🔻
H4 SMA200-P(2351.01) Buy🔺
RSI(14): Status: Oversold
STOCHRSI(14): Status: Oversold
ROC: Status: Buy
William%R: Status: Buy
ATR(14): Status: Buy
SOC: Status: Neutral
⚠️Ongoing Geo-political Tensions: ‼️
Israel – Iran
Russia - Ukraine
US-China Relations
Middle East Instability
Taiwan-China Relations
Note
🚨🚨H1 SMA 100-P $2320.88 Achieved ✅Buy at $2323.6 Achieved ✅
NFP DATA ++ 272k ( Actual Release )📊📝📝
Trade closed: target reached
As Mentioned earlier on NFP Day on 7-6-24 at 15:50 hrs if data release with 250,000 or more: it could lead Fed rate cut, USD Rally and GOLD PRICE DROP ($100 drop is observed) after NFP data Released on 7-6-24 at 18:00 hrs ✅🔻💹After FOMC:
1.Expectation of a Fed rate cut linked to NFP data and upcoming events.
2.Speculations regarding the Federal rate cut will drive gold, possibly leading spot gold to:
Lower Range: $2240-$2200🔺
Higher Range: $2380-$2440🔻
Reasons for Speculated Ranges:📊🔖🚨
US Treasury Yields: A strong US NFP headline and wage inflation data drove Treasury bond yields higher, notably the 2-year Treasury yields, which are sensitive to Fed policy expectations.
US Dollar: The US Dollar surged in response to higher Treasury yields and a decline in expectations for a Fed interest rate cut in September, putting pressure on non-interest-bearing assets like gold.
Gold Price Influences:
📍PBoC Gold Purchases: Reports indicate the People's Bank of China paused gold purchases in May, ending an 18-month buying spree, which undermines the Gold price.
📍Market Sentiment: Cautious market mood offers some support to XAU/USD, limiting deeper losses. Traders are hesitant to make aggressive bets ahead of key US data and the FOMC meeting.
Current Market Trends:
📌US Dollar: Gains traction as markets anticipate delayed Fed rate cuts ahead of CPI data and Fed announcements.
📌XAUUSD/Spot GOLD: Crucial Price Zones Today
🟢 Support (S2 & S3): $2280-$2250 zone
🔴Resistance (R2 & R3): $2331-$2355 zone
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