JULY 5TH 2655 DRAFT 29, WHAT IN THE WORLD?
Sometimes figuring out direction is easy. But figuring out shape is hard like you don't believe.
1) we are going up
2) no idea what it looks like
3) bc it's not going to check down
4) to reset the blue wave
5) which means some annoying route
6) long story short, we are going up
7) July 5th high cut to 2655
8) I can always bump it later if I have to
1) we are going up
2) no idea what it looks like
3) bc it's not going to check down
4) to reset the blue wave
5) which means some annoying route
6) long story short, we are going up
7) July 5th high cut to 2655
8) I can always bump it later if I have to
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6:24 AM, 6/25, OK so in DRAFT 28 was taking about the blue wave like this:Note
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1) so all I know is we have a really strong setup ok?2) but we are not taking any of usual routes
3) but for this rally
4) if in doubt, just hold to 7/5 you'll be fine
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5) when it does this...6) by the time I figure it out
7) the move will be over
8) so I'm going to bed bc I'm so f-ing tired
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6:41 AM ET... today probably not that interesting1) I can still see the vol compression 2343
2) so I don't think this thing moves a lot today
3) maybe tonight or early Wed
4) but I still see a lot of vol compression
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5) hate this type of move6) worst case scenario HOLD TO 7/5 ok?
7) I'm going to sleep again
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8) for the record, 2450 should come WED NIGHTNote
7:14 AM ET, 6/25, so today we deal with this are under 23701) once this part is through
2) the rest will be much more fun
3) here is generalized expectations (not to day trade with)
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4) know how all the previous drafts had a smooth route up?5) especially at the beginning
6) we don't have that right now
7) if you are going to day trade this
8) try not messing with your main position long
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7:32 PM 2329.XXX don't worry about the retrace 1) we going up
2) it's just that price chose the annoying route
3) so it's going to be annoying until late tonight
4) once so for next 16 hours
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%) watch out under 2329...h) price not supposed to stay here long
I) so be suspicious AF if it does
j0 there is one other route, but I am going to bed
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1:14 PM, 2317.XX IN DRAFT 28, we left off last where I discussed this move:Note
1) before I slept this morning, said if price stayed under 2329 long2) to be suspicious for one other routet
3) this is that other route
4) it is 98% complete
5) with only one tiny move left to make before spiking
Note
6) that would be this: Note
7) so we find out in 14 hours if it's going to to do it8) if it does, it will be obvious
9) because that route is one way move up
10) with low 2-2way vol
11) and I am working on what happens if it does not
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12) which is devolving into sideways market for months13) with the first move being
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3:32 PM ET... 1) if price skips that route tonight
2) by going sideways
3) then price gold moves into sideways market
4) but the pressure for 7/5 has too much support
5) so the result is a double top on 7/5 and 2450
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6) this means 2 things, but it does not mean sideways market for a long timea) a massive double top curving into September/October crash
b) or just a really late start to the rally
c) but with move to 2450 so late
d) it's more likely to double top at 2450
e) the only way got disprove that top is make a higher top by 7/12 at 2500
f) but it only buys time '
g) it bc all you get is A HIGHER DOUBLE TOP
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4:14 PM ET....1) I just don't the miracle last second run happening
2) it's wide open, but it doesn't matter if it's late
3) and it's like a 3 hour difference
4) if it moves early, it should "rev up for it before midnight"
5) if it continues to straddle 2316-2318, IT WILL MOVE
6) WHEN IT NO LONGER COUNTS
7) but the overall setup is too strong to go down w/o a fight
8) so we end up with another 1-2, 1-2
9) and then closing 7/5 at 2450
10) odds no doubt favor 2500 the week after
11) BUT IF IT'S NOT 7/5, it doesn't hold the momentum required
12) to do "real damage" the following week
13) after the check to down to 2450
14) so we can already see, that there's no "automatic reverse up rally at 2450)
15) like this:
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6/25, 4:28 PM ET 1) so in chart above
2) about a month ago I started saying that
3) if bulls miss this high 2650-2700 by 7/5
4) one of two things will happen
5) sideways to October in very long term slow bull market (unlikely)
6) or sideways to to crash setup
7) bc of medium term and a long term strength
8) this move will keep going into a triple top
9) and itself a double top
10) while it's "NOT FINAL" that this doesn't move up
11) it's obvious to average person that it's a crash setup
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12) so that's my base case, wide triple top at 2500
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