This Weeks Trade Plan - October 21st, 2024
Price Update!
What a great week of gold gains! As per last week's analysis, only buys were considered at key levels, I hope you all followed along. This week I have included my actual analysis report after the trade plan for all to consider.
🌍 Market News Update
Next week’s economic data may provide mixed signals, but the increase in unemployment claims points towards potential economic weakness, which could be bullish for gold as investors look for safe-haven assets.
📊 NEWS THIS WEEK 🏦
Thu, Oct 24
🟢 Unemployment Claims Forecast: 243K | Previous: 241K Increase in unemployment claims (economic weakness) ➝ Lower inflation, weaker dollar ➝ Bullish for gold (as gold becomes a safe haven).
Fri, Oct 25
🔴 Flash Manufacturing PMI Forecast: 47.5 | Previous: 47.3 Improvement in manufacturing sector ➝ Economic recovery ➝ Stronger dollar ➝ Bearish for gold.
🔴 Flash Services PMI Forecast: 55.0 | Previous: 55.2 Strength in the services sector ➝ Supports economic growth ➝ Stronger dollar ➝ Bearish for gold.
Trade Plan
📉 Sell Entry 1: $2725.35 - $2730.92 – Fibonacci Golden Pocket
🔄 $2719.06 – Sell Stop Entry if initial level is missed
🔒 SL 1: $2750 – Psychological Level
📈 Buy Entry 1: $2685.82 - $2689.44
🔄 $2695.00 – Buy Stop Entry if initial target is missed
🔒 SL : $2678.32
📈 Buy Entry 2: $2701.00 -$2706.00
🔄 $2710.00 – Buy Stop Entry if initial target is missed
🔒 SL 1: $2693.5
As always, our trades are guided by price action. While we can plan in advance, we adapt daily to the market, using key signals and indicators to inform our trading decisions.
Analysis
Trend Structure
Key Levels
Resistance
Support
RSI
Volume
Patterns
Conclusion
The outlook for gold is bullish, with potential bearish retracement catalysts from upcoming PMI data. The technical picture reflects an uptrend nearing exhaustion, as the current leg aligns with the duration of previous upward moves.
Key psychological levels, particularly around $2725 to $2730.92, will play a crucial role in determining short-term direction. Heavy bullish volume indicates buyers are still in control, but bearish RSI divergence and reversal patterns such as the rising wedge and potential head-and-shoulders pattern signal the possibility of a pullback.
Traders should be cautious if price breaks below $2700.00, as it could trigger a move toward the neckline at $2685.82. Conversely, a continuation above $2730.00 would reinforce the uptrend, targeting $2750.00 and $2861.05 in the longer term.
The trade plan provides a balanced approach, with both buy and sell setups prepared to adapt to evolving market conditions. Key levels and patterns will guide decisions, with close monitoring of volume and price action critical for confirming entries. Flexibility will be essential, as economic data may shift sentiment throughout the week.
What a great week of gold gains! As per last week's analysis, only buys were considered at key levels, I hope you all followed along. This week I have included my actual analysis report after the trade plan for all to consider.
🌍 Market News Update
Next week’s economic data may provide mixed signals, but the increase in unemployment claims points towards potential economic weakness, which could be bullish for gold as investors look for safe-haven assets.
📊 NEWS THIS WEEK 🏦
Thu, Oct 24
🟢 Unemployment Claims Forecast: 243K | Previous: 241K Increase in unemployment claims (economic weakness) ➝ Lower inflation, weaker dollar ➝ Bullish for gold (as gold becomes a safe haven).
Fri, Oct 25
🔴 Flash Manufacturing PMI Forecast: 47.5 | Previous: 47.3 Improvement in manufacturing sector ➝ Economic recovery ➝ Stronger dollar ➝ Bearish for gold.
🔴 Flash Services PMI Forecast: 55.0 | Previous: 55.2 Strength in the services sector ➝ Supports economic growth ➝ Stronger dollar ➝ Bearish for gold.
Trade Plan
📉 Sell Entry 1: $2725.35 - $2730.92 – Fibonacci Golden Pocket
🔄 $2719.06 – Sell Stop Entry if initial level is missed
- 🎯 TP 1: $2713 – 1-hour Support
- 🎯 TP 2: $2702 – Key Psychological Level
- 🎯 TP 3: $2696.52 – Previous 1-hour Resistance & Break of Structure
- 🎯 TP 4: $2689.44 – Previous 1-hour Support
- 🎯 TP 5: $2685.82 – 4-hour Support
🔒 SL 1: $2750 – Psychological Level
📈 Buy Entry 1: $2685.82 - $2689.44
🔄 $2695.00 – Buy Stop Entry if initial target is missed
- 🎯 TP 1: $2702 – Key Psychological Level
- 🎯 TP 2: $2713 – 1-hour Support
- 🎯 TP 3: $2725.35 - $2730.92 – Fibonacci Golden Pocket
- 🎯 TP 4: $2750 – Psychological Level
🔒 SL : $2678.32
📈 Buy Entry 2: $2701.00 -$2706.00
🔄 $2710.00 – Buy Stop Entry if initial target is missed
- 🎯 TP 1: $2725.35 - $2730.92 – Fibonacci Golden Pocket
- 🎯 TP 2: $2750 – Psychological Level
🔒 SL 1: $2693.5
As always, our trades are guided by price action. While we can plan in advance, we adapt daily to the market, using key signals and indicators to inform our trading decisions.
Analysis
Trend Structure
- Price has touched the hourly trendline 3 times across the past 2 weeks, with the 1st touch point being the 1st of the 4hr Trend line
- Each of the last 2 legs of this current up-trend has lasted approximately 12 days and 8 hours. The 3rd leg is nearing the same duration, suggesting only 24 more hours of upward pressure before resistance forms.
- Long term outlook: Daily trend line has been respected on 3 separate occasions in 3 separate months, price likely to reach $2861.05 resistance on the Daily time frame, after price broke the $2466.00 resistance of the range in August 2024 which will conclude the 2nd Leg of the upwards trend
Key Levels
Resistance
- Price is approaching $2725, a key psychological level.
- Alternatively, the golden pocket Fibonacci extension lies between $2725.35 and $2730.92, with another psychological level at $2750.
Support
- Hourly Support: $2713.01
- If price breaks below $2713.01 and retests from $2702, it could retrace to form the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern, with a potential move down to the neckline at $2685.82 (4-hour support).
RSI
- Bearish RSI divergence indicates weakening momentum despite the upward trend.
- Both the 4hr and Daily are > 70 however this could remain and can continue to go higher over the course of the week
Volume
- Heavy bullish volume seen between $2706 and $2713 and at $2650. Bulls are likely to maintain control unless heavy selling volume emerges.
- If price breaks below the $2700 zone, there could be a free fall of 300 points to $2697 as there is little volume in this area, the momentum of the free fall could cause price to test the 4-hour support
Patterns
- Rising Wedge: A bearish reversal pattern identified on the 1-hour chart.
- Potential Head and Shoulders Pattern: If the price breaks below $2713.01 and retests from $2702, it could form the right shoulder, ideal for a sell setup.
Conclusion
The outlook for gold is bullish, with potential bearish retracement catalysts from upcoming PMI data. The technical picture reflects an uptrend nearing exhaustion, as the current leg aligns with the duration of previous upward moves.
Key psychological levels, particularly around $2725 to $2730.92, will play a crucial role in determining short-term direction. Heavy bullish volume indicates buyers are still in control, but bearish RSI divergence and reversal patterns such as the rising wedge and potential head-and-shoulders pattern signal the possibility of a pullback.
Traders should be cautious if price breaks below $2700.00, as it could trigger a move toward the neckline at $2685.82. Conversely, a continuation above $2730.00 would reinforce the uptrend, targeting $2750.00 and $2861.05 in the longer term.
The trade plan provides a balanced approach, with both buy and sell setups prepared to adapt to evolving market conditions. Key levels and patterns will guide decisions, with close monitoring of volume and price action critical for confirming entries. Flexibility will be essential, as economic data may shift sentiment throughout the week.
Disclaimer
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