RUMORS OF A PIVOT REQUIEM PART 3, NEXT UPDATE 01/29-30
Price has rejected all faster combinations of this move. So no update needed until after FOMC in late January. This means 2765-ish before FOMC and 2675-ish after FOMC before 2850-2900 in late February. Until then, we are total long with total conviction.
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01/07/25, 8:27 PM ET, New York time, so that means:
1) I am long since 2595, personally holding to 2850
2) but this setup has a VERY STRONG RETRACE PATTERN AT 2765-ISH
3) so tactically, it would be sell 2765
4) AND IMMEDIATELY (next day or two) re entry at 2675
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5) this of course before and after fomc
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7:24 AM 01-08-25 SOLD 2648.xxNote
1) too much sideways stalling before 2700
2) seem to favor one more check under 2600
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3) so waiting for re-entryNote
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4) in chart above, trend engine is saying blue line should now HOLD ONE MORE CHECK UP
5) and that prior to the break out should be a "triple bottom look"
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6) continuing in notes in chart above
7) the setup to break the blue line is gone
8) now at 2663.xxx price can challenge it, but it would be too late to
9) offset the next wave of selling
10) so odds of returning to 2600 before 01/30 is strongly favored in this scenario
11) so I am waiting to buy that drop to 2600
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12) fwiw, the vol limit to test the blue line is 2685-2690
13) in any case, the next up date to this setup is late January, 01-26 to 01-30
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14) here is the strongest outcome I see now:
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15) I still have total conviction in the long side
16) but odds now favor a discount before 1/29 FOMC
17) and vol compression for incoming 15 trading days
18) so that’s is a wrap until Tuesday 01/28
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19) this basically means that the entry should be 1/27, 28, or 29
20) between 2595 and 2625
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7) so here is zoom out:
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1) but there is no doubt that the last opportunity for a strong entry
2) is 01/27, 28, and 29 (FOMC is 29)
3) and ..
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1) so this implies a target of 2590s BEFORE RUNAWAY REACTON TO FOMC
2) I am working up something you can use ahead of 01/27-28-29-30 entry
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3) chart above is work up for swing long #1 (of 3)
4) will add more soon
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52) for the purposes of "intermediate swing trades"
53) of which there are 3 of them from here to 3965
54) covering a continuously shifting pattern is not worth the time unless value (or one way vol) is high
55) this will not come until 01/29 or 01/30
56) until then, the implied pattern (gray route in chart above)
57) looks like that
58) but we are in that zone where it shifts constantly until 01/21
59) so this much can be said:
a) bulls own the window from now until next Friday
b) if they are hard headed, it will last to the following Monday at 01/20
c) in which price reaches the "must turn hard ahead of FOMC" zone
d) so while price is at vol limits right now
e) if price does not immediately reverse on Sunday open
f) bulls will try to push for 2730s
g) this "pushing" raises the floor from 2601 to vol limits at 2641 on 01/29
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01/13, 12:11 PM ET, so I wrote in e) that "if price does not immediately reverse...
60) well it did, so here's the 3 looks in comparison:'
61) the light blue was last Thursday
62) gray is yesterday before open
63) AND ORANGE IS NOW FAVORED
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64) but as I said yesterday, this part will move constantly ...
65) until 01/20-21
66) but what do we know now compared to before Sunday open?
67) this suggests that the INCOMING LOW BEFORE FOMC SEEM TO BE 2621-2631
68) but more importantly, whether or not there will be a 2720-ish high around 01/23-26...
69) it's hard to see how this low can be higher than 2635
70) whatever the case maybe...
71) THE STRATEGY FOR LONG TO 3850 AND INTERMEDIATE SWING ARE THE SAME
72) buy the low SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 01/20 AND 01/29
73) and while the implied check down is 2621-2631
74) THE FLOOR IS STILL 2601
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75) no, a bit more like this:
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JANUARY 13TH, 12:56 PM, ET, NEW YORK TIME, UPDATE: THIS IS IT.
1) first let me say that in chart above, the oranges are in the middle of gray and blue
2) so by some default of logic, it's favored to be the closest move without super detailing
3) and now with super-detailing
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4) so IN CHART ABOVE, the oranges were BETWEEN GRAY AND BLUE
5) in that sense, GRAY WAS UPPER BOUND and BLUE WAS LOWER BOUND
6) NOW, ORANGE IS UPPER BOUND
7) AND DARK GRAY IS LOWER BOUND
8) and the difference between the two is not that great
9) where oranges is running for 2626 low
10) dark gray is running for 2601 low
11) so then here's PART 4 - LAST GOOD ENTRY FOR 3850:
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SO HERE IS PART 4:
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