RUMORS OF A PIVOT REQUIEM, ENTRY FOR 3850 IS BASICALLY NOW
Since Trump got elected, we have eliminated the 2380-2400 check down to 45-year trend line. We have raised the floor to 2450, 2480, 2520, 2580, now we are breaching 2600 current March low looks like 2618 AND RISING.
It is NO LONGER OBVIOUS THAT the check down after 2800s is under 2680s. So what this means is that the "December long" which became "January long" is now "total long PERIOD". Sure, I imagine that between mid February to mid March (say, 2/14 to 3/14), there will be a 150-170pt reversal. For that, we will watch the BOLD DASHED BLACK LINE before 3/19 FOMC. Beyond that, we have to kill the short after 2800s because the value may not be worth the trouble. So we are long to 2800s, exit, and wait for ENTRY LONG AGAIN to what I personally think is 2641 on March 12-18.
It is NO LONGER OBVIOUS THAT the check down after 2800s is under 2680s. So what this means is that the "December long" which became "January long" is now "total long PERIOD". Sure, I imagine that between mid February to mid March (say, 2/14 to 3/14), there will be a 150-170pt reversal. For that, we will watch the BOLD DASHED BLACK LINE before 3/19 FOMC. Beyond that, we have to kill the short after 2800s because the value may not be worth the trouble. So we are long to 2800s, exit, and wait for ENTRY LONG AGAIN to what I personally think is 2641 on March 12-18.
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5) for the record, yellow is outright favorite
6) unless price stalls at 2649-ish
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01/02/25, 9:14 AM ET, 2645.XX, COMMENTS ON YELLOW VS RED ROUTE
7) continuing from previous notes, so yellow is outright favorite
8) and yellow route has until Sunday night to break 2653
9) until then, yellow route is outright favorite
10) if continuous stalling at 2643-2653 to Sunday night
11) Monday would start to favor 2610 before 2685 again then back down stalling sideways
12) that would be red route
13) the key here is WHEN WILL 2685 HIT?
14) which in turn determines when 2730 hits
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15) 9:21 AM ET, the route to 2685 by tomorrow is live right now
16) and probably SHOULD BE FAVORED
17) hitting 2685 tomorrow implies 2725-2730 before next Thursday or 1 week out
18) and BEGINS TO SUGGEST AN EVEN STRONGER ROUTE THAN GRAY ROUTE IN CHART AT TOP
19) but not worth discussing until next Thursday
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20) but it would start like this:
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BIG UPDATE!
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6) continuing in chart above, THIS MEANS 2830-2860 by roughly 01/24...
7) HOWEVER, while this IMPLIES that March low is likely to be above 2645
8) it doesn't eliminate everything under 2645
9) it DOES OPEN THE WINDOW FOR ONE MORE VARIATION like this:
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10) to sum all of this up in chart bove
11) odds of being "past entry for 3850" at 2595-2605 in the last 10 days
11) are increasing quickly and consistently
12) but our intermediate trade is the same, long to 2800s
13) but instead of 2800+/-25 (2775-2825), it is now 2840+/-20 (or 2820-2860)
14) in which we exit and wait for the next good entry WHICH IS NOT OBVIOUS WHEN
15) that time range is now 01-28 through 03-19, and in my opinion, COULD VERY WELL BE
16) WHEN WE HAD IT ORIGINALLY, last week for January to first week of February
17) but the buy obviously around where price is trading RIGHT THIS SECOND AT 2655
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19) and in chart above with price trading at 2657.xx
20) we are looking for the response at 2685-2690 before the stall at 2730-2735
21) that will precede the spike to 2760
22) AFTER 2760 WE WANT TO SEE PRICE CHECK THE BOLD BLUE LINE (which is now higher)
23) and all of this needs to happen by Friday 01/10 (or next Friday)
24) this will setup the spike for 2840+/-20 that in my humbled opinion
25) SHOULD ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF JANUARY 29 FOMC
26) it looks like 01/20 to 01/24 right now
27) this will be the exit for the intermediate long
28) that is where we stand on at 11:34 AM ET, January 2nd, 2025
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FINALLY, DETAIL THROUGH 01/24 AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE 2850-ISH:
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SO WE CAN WRAP UP THIS POST NOW AND MOVE TO #2:
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