Weekly Analysis: a New Bullish Impulse? (Bull or Bear?)
Updated
XAUUSD Forecast Direction for August 5-9, 2024
For the week ahead, I’ve looked at the XAUUSD D1 & H4 chart and have some updates. On July 30, 2023, My predicted a change in XAUUSD TA would market structure shift from going down to going up. This forecast was confirmed when Gold make a reversal price from $2370.5 to $2473, which is a gain of 1000 pips.
However, after the recent Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, Gold price falls sharply by about 600 pips, dropping from $2477 to $2410. This drop was due to market reactions to the NFP data last Friday night 2/8/2024.
Gold price has since bounced back, rising about 300 pips from $2410 to $2441. This observed increase suggests that providing discounts at resistance levels could might continue rising.
Looking ahead, my technical analysis suggests that XAUUSD could keep rising and may reach a resistance zone between $2453 and $2473 keylevel. This area has been a strong resistance level in the past.
In this zone, a reversal pattern called a Double Top has formed, which often means the price might soon start to falling. As a result, I expect XAUUSD price could drop to around $2339 key level, which is a decline of about 1350 pips.
Although the recent price increase, suggests a possible continued rise, the formation of the double top pattern and resistance levels indicate that a drop is likely. Therefore, be prepared for a potential decline in XAUUSD, targeting around $2339 level for the week of August 5-9, 2024. INSYALLAH.
For the week ahead, I’ve looked at the XAUUSD D1 & H4 chart and have some updates. On July 30, 2023, My predicted a change in XAUUSD TA would market structure shift from going down to going up. This forecast was confirmed when Gold make a reversal price from $2370.5 to $2473, which is a gain of 1000 pips.
However, after the recent Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, Gold price falls sharply by about 600 pips, dropping from $2477 to $2410. This drop was due to market reactions to the NFP data last Friday night 2/8/2024.
Gold price has since bounced back, rising about 300 pips from $2410 to $2441. This observed increase suggests that providing discounts at resistance levels could might continue rising.
Looking ahead, my technical analysis suggests that XAUUSD could keep rising and may reach a resistance zone between $2453 and $2473 keylevel. This area has been a strong resistance level in the past.
In this zone, a reversal pattern called a Double Top has formed, which often means the price might soon start to falling. As a result, I expect XAUUSD price could drop to around $2339 key level, which is a decline of about 1350 pips.
Although the recent price increase, suggests a possible continued rise, the formation of the double top pattern and resistance levels indicate that a drop is likely. Therefore, be prepared for a potential decline in XAUUSD, targeting around $2339 level for the week of August 5-9, 2024. INSYALLAH.
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Market Overview for August 5, 2024
Today's Asian market opening has been extremely chaotic and unstable. The chaos is due to big drops in various stock markets. The stock market fell sharply, and crypto currencies also experienced their worst drop since 2021. Adding to the mess, the Federal Reserve (FED) did not cut interest rates early enough.
When the Asian market opened, gold prices was fall significantly. They dropped from $2445 to $2414, which is about a 320-pip decrease. After this initial drop, gold prices make a pullback and bounced back up by about 420 pips into a zone that I had previously forecasted as a good point to sell, which was at $2458.5. Following this bounce, gold prices fell drastically again, this time by 951 pips.
This aligns with my forecast from Sunday, August 4, 2024. I had predicted today’s market behavior accurately. The sharp drop happened because investors were selling their assets to cover losses in the stock market. One early sign of this was gold failing to reach new highs after the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report last Friday. This was a clue that global markets might start selling off assets, particularly gold, and that the U.S. market might face a recession.
Gold failure to maintain high prices after the NFP report indicated that investors were likely to start selling off assets. This early sign was crucial. As investors sold their assets to cover up losses on the stocks market, gold prices dropped even more. This kind of behavior usually happens before bigger market downturns, suggesting tough times ahead, especially for the U.S. market.
In summary, today's market turmoil is due to several factors: big stock market drops, a struggling cryptocurrency market, and the FED's delayed interest rate cuts. Together, these caused a significant fall in gold prices, matching my earlier predictions and indicating difficult times ahead for global financial markets.
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