Technical Analysis
Trend & Patterns
Since late December 2024, gold has been in a strong uptrend, breaking out of the descending channel that formed in December–January. Recently we’ve seen a brief consolidation around the $3,300–$3,400 zone after peaking near $3,500.
Indicators
The RSI sits just above 50, pointing to continued bullish momentum. The MACD lines remain positive, though they’re approaching a potential turning phase.
Support & Resistance
Resistance: $3,400 (recent daily highs), then $3,500 (all-time high).
Support: $3,300 (current consolidation floor), followed by $3,250 and $3,100 as deeper support levels.
Short-term Outlook
Gold is likely to trade sideways between $3,300–$3,400, with dips offering buying opportunities. A decisive break above $3,400 would open the door to retests near $3,450–$3,500. If XAU/USD falls below $3,300, it could quickly slide toward $3,250–$3,100.
Fundamental Catalysts
Safe-haven demand from geopolitical and trade tensions continues to underpin gold prices.
Fed policy: the odds of a rate cut before summer remain low, as Fed officials emphasize patience. That limits downward pressure on the dollar (and thus supports gold).
Macro agenda:
May 2: US Non-Farm Payrolls
May 7: Fed meeting & Powell remarks
May 13: CPI report vs. rate guidance
These releases could trigger significant intraday volatility.
Conclusion & Near-term Outlook
Given the technical bullish bias and upcoming US data, I expect over the next few days:
Consolidation: $3,300–$3,400
Bullish scenario: recovery above $3,400 leads to retests of $3,450–$3,500
Bearish scenario: a break below $3,300 triggers a swift drop toward $3,250–$3,100
Stay alert around the NFP, Fed, and CPI releases—they’ll drive the near-term direction.
Trend & Patterns
Since late December 2024, gold has been in a strong uptrend, breaking out of the descending channel that formed in December–January. Recently we’ve seen a brief consolidation around the $3,300–$3,400 zone after peaking near $3,500.
Indicators
The RSI sits just above 50, pointing to continued bullish momentum. The MACD lines remain positive, though they’re approaching a potential turning phase.
Support & Resistance
Resistance: $3,400 (recent daily highs), then $3,500 (all-time high).
Support: $3,300 (current consolidation floor), followed by $3,250 and $3,100 as deeper support levels.
Short-term Outlook
Gold is likely to trade sideways between $3,300–$3,400, with dips offering buying opportunities. A decisive break above $3,400 would open the door to retests near $3,450–$3,500. If XAU/USD falls below $3,300, it could quickly slide toward $3,250–$3,100.
Fundamental Catalysts
Safe-haven demand from geopolitical and trade tensions continues to underpin gold prices.
Fed policy: the odds of a rate cut before summer remain low, as Fed officials emphasize patience. That limits downward pressure on the dollar (and thus supports gold).
Macro agenda:
May 2: US Non-Farm Payrolls
May 7: Fed meeting & Powell remarks
May 13: CPI report vs. rate guidance
These releases could trigger significant intraday volatility.
Conclusion & Near-term Outlook
Given the technical bullish bias and upcoming US data, I expect over the next few days:
Consolidation: $3,300–$3,400
Bullish scenario: recovery above $3,400 leads to retests of $3,450–$3,500
Bearish scenario: a break below $3,300 triggers a swift drop toward $3,250–$3,100
Stay alert around the NFP, Fed, and CPI releases—they’ll drive the near-term direction.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.