JULY 5TH 2680, DRAFT 26, EXPLOSION STARTS NOW!
THE CALL - 360 points in 9 trading days.
INTRO - After nailing "2150 BY 03/08" breakout in March, I started talking about this move even before we got to 2200. The deadline for the 2640-2720 high is July 5th. As stated in DRAFT 25, the "super-coiling" of trends is about to break and send price to to 2660 by by next Friday 07/05/2024. July 4th is Independence Day, "the" major American holiday, there are only nine trading days left for price to reach this high. While this may seem very unlikely from any other point of view, Binary Forecasting Service's trend engine sees this outcome as the outright favorite vs all other outcomes for the next two weeks.
DETAILS - In chart above, light blue is the previous "proofing" of DRAFT 25's route to 2550. This may still be the case, the difference of the two routes depends on HOW FAST WE GET BACK TO 2370. In both scenarios, the three boxes represent the three major remaining instances of draw downs of this rally after break of 2381. From what I can see right now, they look like 3 retraces of 50 points, WITH THE SECOND ONE having potential for a 70 point drop.
INTRO - After nailing "2150 BY 03/08" breakout in March, I started talking about this move even before we got to 2200. The deadline for the 2640-2720 high is July 5th. As stated in DRAFT 25, the "super-coiling" of trends is about to break and send price to to 2660 by by next Friday 07/05/2024. July 4th is Independence Day, "the" major American holiday, there are only nine trading days left for price to reach this high. While this may seem very unlikely from any other point of view, Binary Forecasting Service's trend engine sees this outcome as the outright favorite vs all other outcomes for the next two weeks.
DETAILS - In chart above, light blue is the previous "proofing" of DRAFT 25's route to 2550. This may still be the case, the difference of the two routes depends on HOW FAST WE GET BACK TO 2370. In both scenarios, the three boxes represent the three major remaining instances of draw downs of this rally after break of 2381. From what I can see right now, they look like 3 retraces of 50 points, WITH THE SECOND ONE having potential for a 70 point drop.
Note
6/23, 2:16 PM ET, THAT'S 12 DRAFTS IN 3 TRADING DAYS1) I published post #15 on end of NY on Tuesday 3/18
2) IT'S 2:22 PM ET as I typing and Sunday open at 6:00 PM
3) so the span of 3 trading days, this is the 12th draft
4) from my view, it's just 12 different variations of the same move
5) this is where "basic probability hurt more than help"
6) why?
7) IT'S OBVIOUS THAT 13 TRADING DAYS IS MORE LIKELY THAN 9 DAYS
8) some of this depends on the your tolerance of 2-way vol
9) bc this rally really began at 2286.
10) but unless you are long term traders
11) could you have handled the swings since 2286?
12) most people can't
Note
13) so first we need to see how fast we get back to 236714) if we do that by 7:30 AM ET Monday, yellow route continues to be the favorite
15) but if price stalls waits until end of NY or 3 PM ET or later
16) blue route MAYBE the favorite, BUT IT'S NOT OBVIOUS
17) so this is why yellow is outright favorite
18) because even if price moves like blue route for next 24 trading hours
19) blue route MAY STILL BE THE UNDER DOG Monday night
Note
20) I am long with 6:1 call put value, and "essentially all in"21) bc while I have 57% in cash, that cash is TO HEDGE FOR A BEAR OUTCOME
22) not to commit anymore to long position
23) I own calls expiring this Friday and next Friday
24) about 2/3 ATM and 1/3 OTM
25) that's it, will add notes after open
Note
26) pre-OPEN hedges, stops, limits, etc...:a) for myself only bc everyone's size/situation is different
b) it's 2321.xx
c) if it drops to 2319, I add hedges
d) if it drops to 2317, I add hedges
e) if it drops to 2315, put call value would be 50/50
f) meaning my stop, is essentially 2315 FOR FIRST FOUR HOURS AFTER OPEN
g) NY open is 6:00, 9:45 is a very important marker
h) bc by 10:00, it should completely obvious what price wants to do
i) so at 9:45 if it's still sideways at 2321, then I ALSO PICK UP HEDGES
j) at what value ratio depends on situation at that time
Note
4:27 PM ET, the difference between blue and yellow routes in chart at topa) comes down to 'how fast do we get back to 2367-2372
b) which ultimately comes down to WHERE WILL PRICE BE AT 4 AM ET
c) which is Tokyo close, 2 hours after London opens and 4.5 hours before NY open
d) if yellow route, price should be 2345+
e) if blue route, price will retest 2323
f) so like this:
g) in chart above, it's between midnight and 2 AM when the decision happens
h) imho, it should come out very similar to yellow hi-light
Note
6:00 PM, 2321,xx, first 2 hours maybe a bit weak/slow.Note
6:06 PM, 2321.XX, that opening drop to 2317 should be low in for this session.Note
Note
6/23, 10:34 PM ET, 2322.xx, much slower off the break of the line than anticpated.1) but from trend map perspective, we are doing fine
2) we are not going to keep up with the yellow route
3) at least that's what it's saying now
4) this can still change despite price still hanging at 2322
5) meanwhile it's actually even slower than blue route for now
6) but this will change by end of NY tormorrow
7) the final route up - after this gets moving - is going to be between yellow and blue
8) right now it seems like it will be closer to blue
9) but I'm pretty sure this will change
10) as there is a limit on slow this turn can be
Note
THIS POST HAS ENDED, HERE IS DRAFT 26-B:
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