After the first 2 trading days of the week without important economic data released from the US, today the market is waiting for CPI data and the FED's interest rate decision to be announced in the US session tonight. Currently, the market is expecting CPI data to decrease to 0.1% compared to 0.3% in the previous period. Core PCE data remains the same at 0.3%. If the actual data released is weaker than expectations, then ==> Expectations for FED interest rate cuts increase ==> Gold is supported to increase. On the contrary, if the published CPI and Core PCE data exceed expectations ==> The probability of the FED's interest rate cut decreases ==> Gold is under downward pressure. Besides, investors also need to pay attention to the FED's interest rate decision announced late at night at 1:00 and Powell's press conference at 1:30 on June 13.
The two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which began on Tuesday and will end on Wednesday, is drawing attention from market observers. Any change in the interest rate outlook or guidance from Federal Reserve (Fed) members will certainly stir up market movements. The results of the “dot plot” chart will also be closely monitored.
A Reuters poll suggests that most analysts estimate the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in 2024. Meanwhile, data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) suggests December 2024 federal funds futures show that most traders expect 28 basis points of easing by the end of the year.
Summary: Today, gold prices may fluctuate very strongly due to the US release of CPI data (Inflation data) and the FED's interest rate decision. If the published CPI data continues to exceed expectations + NFP last week was better than expectations ==> FED can keep interest rates high for a longer time ==> Gold falls and vice versa. Besides, investors also need to pay attention to the FED's "Dot Plot" and the FED's press conference.
About the technical angle.
Gold had its second recovery day after a sharp decline at the end of last week. It seems that the gold price is moving in a bearish flag pattern.
If gold rises to the 38.2% Fib zone of the previous decline + The upper border of the flag is around 2325, you can consider selling down during the day. Because the previous decline was quite strong, selling gold is still a priority.
Support: 2300 - 2286 - 2274 - 2268
Resistance: 2325 - 2332 - 2338 - 2342 - 2368
🔴SELL price range 2339 - 2341 stoploss 2344
🔴SELL price range 2324- 2326 stoploss 2329 (scalp)
🟢BUY price range 2280 - 2268 stoploss 2265
🟢BUY price range 2270 - 2268 stoploss 2265
Scalping strategies will be applied when the resistance - support areas above have entry signals.‼️
The two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which began on Tuesday and will end on Wednesday, is drawing attention from market observers. Any change in the interest rate outlook or guidance from Federal Reserve (Fed) members will certainly stir up market movements. The results of the “dot plot” chart will also be closely monitored.
A Reuters poll suggests that most analysts estimate the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in 2024. Meanwhile, data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) suggests December 2024 federal funds futures show that most traders expect 28 basis points of easing by the end of the year.
Summary: Today, gold prices may fluctuate very strongly due to the US release of CPI data (Inflation data) and the FED's interest rate decision. If the published CPI data continues to exceed expectations + NFP last week was better than expectations ==> FED can keep interest rates high for a longer time ==> Gold falls and vice versa. Besides, investors also need to pay attention to the FED's "Dot Plot" and the FED's press conference.
About the technical angle.
Gold had its second recovery day after a sharp decline at the end of last week. It seems that the gold price is moving in a bearish flag pattern.
If gold rises to the 38.2% Fib zone of the previous decline + The upper border of the flag is around 2325, you can consider selling down during the day. Because the previous decline was quite strong, selling gold is still a priority.
Support: 2300 - 2286 - 2274 - 2268
Resistance: 2325 - 2332 - 2338 - 2342 - 2368
🔴SELL price range 2339 - 2341 stoploss 2344
🔴SELL price range 2324- 2326 stoploss 2329 (scalp)
🟢BUY price range 2280 - 2268 stoploss 2265
🟢BUY price range 2270 - 2268 stoploss 2265
Scalping strategies will be applied when the resistance - support areas above have entry signals.‼️
Note
🔴SELL price range 2324- 2326 +35pips🔴SELL price range 2339 - 2341 +200pips (running)
Note
SELL price range 2339 - 2341 +330pips
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.