Gold Analysis 12/06/24
Analyzing the provided gold (XAU/USD) chart on a 4-hour timeframe, here are the potential scenarios based on the CPI data release:
1. *Positive CPI (Higher than expected inflation):*
- *Interest Rate Hike Likely:* If CPI data is positive (indicating higher inflation), the Federal Reserve might consider raising interest rates to combat inflation. This scenario can lead to a strengthening US dollar and typically puts downward pressure on gold prices.
- *Price Movement:*
- *Key Level to Watch:* If gold price closes below the current support level of approximately 2,290.390, we can expect a downward movement towards the next support levels of 2,278 to 2,265, as marked on the chart.
- *Technical Indicators:* The chart shows clean traffic below this level, suggesting potential for a more significant drop if this support breaks.
2. *Negative CPI (Lower than expected inflation):*
- *Interest Rate Hike Unlikely or Rate Hold:* If CPI data is negative (indicating lower inflation), the Federal Reserve might hold off on raising rates or even consider rate cuts. This scenario can weaken the US dollar and generally supports higher gold prices.
- *Price Movement:*
- *Key Level to Watch:* If gold price closes above the resistance level of approximately 2,318.071, we can expect an upward movement towards the next resistance levels of 2,325 to 2,337.
- *Technical Indicators:* The chart indicates clean traffic above this level, suggesting potential for further gains if this resistance is broken.
*Scenarios Summarized:*
- *If CPI is positive (high inflation):* Gold price could drop below 2,290.390, targeting 2,278 to 2,265.
- *If CPI is negative (low inflation):* Gold price could rise above 2,318.071, targeting 2,325 to 2,337.
In General im Bearish with Gold , i think gold might Drop way more But Not for long i'll explain why after posting i'll share some News that may help , i dont take trades based on News unless its confirmed
those news might be wrong or right
1. *Positive CPI (Higher than expected inflation):*
- *Interest Rate Hike Likely:* If CPI data is positive (indicating higher inflation), the Federal Reserve might consider raising interest rates to combat inflation. This scenario can lead to a strengthening US dollar and typically puts downward pressure on gold prices.
- *Price Movement:*
- *Key Level to Watch:* If gold price closes below the current support level of approximately 2,290.390, we can expect a downward movement towards the next support levels of 2,278 to 2,265, as marked on the chart.
- *Technical Indicators:* The chart shows clean traffic below this level, suggesting potential for a more significant drop if this support breaks.
2. *Negative CPI (Lower than expected inflation):*
- *Interest Rate Hike Unlikely or Rate Hold:* If CPI data is negative (indicating lower inflation), the Federal Reserve might hold off on raising rates or even consider rate cuts. This scenario can weaken the US dollar and generally supports higher gold prices.
- *Price Movement:*
- *Key Level to Watch:* If gold price closes above the resistance level of approximately 2,318.071, we can expect an upward movement towards the next resistance levels of 2,325 to 2,337.
- *Technical Indicators:* The chart indicates clean traffic above this level, suggesting potential for further gains if this resistance is broken.
*Scenarios Summarized:*
- *If CPI is positive (high inflation):* Gold price could drop below 2,290.390, targeting 2,278 to 2,265.
- *If CPI is negative (low inflation):* Gold price could rise above 2,318.071, targeting 2,325 to 2,337.
In General im Bearish with Gold , i think gold might Drop way more But Not for long i'll explain why after posting i'll share some News that may help , i dont take trades based on News unless its confirmed
those news might be wrong or right
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