Longterm gold strategy for 2-3Q 2018
Hello guys!
Due to global doubts in geopolitical and financial health plus record long wave of uptrend on stockmarkets I think Gold should be rising in a long term. Current starting point is a 'higher low' in latest trend which developed over last 1,5 year. We are in very important point where market will decide are we 'consuming' that whole growth or is it just another wave of correction and decreasing speed also for next wave.
Brakeouts over 1310 and 1360 should take us to new history highs but for now that attack is moved bit further in time. We took step back in a rapid way and finding a new bottom must be considered. First one is around 1275-1280 and can be justified by extension of last two pivot points but this could work only for a while if AGAIN gold would set a new low for a slower pace of its growth. That is why it could be around 1250-1260.
My approach for that is built around two scenarios for these two potential support. If we'll brake even 1250 than I'll go full short because bottom could be even below that whole 1,5 year long move. Although I think chance for that worse scenario is about 20%. By default I'm long at gold.
[Starting position]
LONG since 1278-1279.
SL in 1270-1273
Scenario 1 - 20% chances
Gold will maintain slow growth at pace of ascending line developed on last two lows. I'll stay LONG.
Stop loss will take action around 1273. Below 1270 I'm SHORT.
Scenario 2 - 60% chances
We are falling in another wave to more important support around 1250-1260.
SHORT since 1269.
Take profit around 1255, possible trailing stop with 3 USD margin. Back to LONG.
Scenario 3 - 20% chances
We are falling below 1250 with now LONG position so now again to SHORT with perspective of a very rapid and deep dive.
Would be thankful for any constructive input, possible scenarios and opinions about how and if global events might impact situation for gold. What could be biggest trigger? Or is it not affected at all?
Due to global doubts in geopolitical and financial health plus record long wave of uptrend on stockmarkets I think Gold should be rising in a long term. Current starting point is a 'higher low' in latest trend which developed over last 1,5 year. We are in very important point where market will decide are we 'consuming' that whole growth or is it just another wave of correction and decreasing speed also for next wave.
Brakeouts over 1310 and 1360 should take us to new history highs but for now that attack is moved bit further in time. We took step back in a rapid way and finding a new bottom must be considered. First one is around 1275-1280 and can be justified by extension of last two pivot points but this could work only for a while if AGAIN gold would set a new low for a slower pace of its growth. That is why it could be around 1250-1260.
My approach for that is built around two scenarios for these two potential support. If we'll brake even 1250 than I'll go full short because bottom could be even below that whole 1,5 year long move. Although I think chance for that worse scenario is about 20%. By default I'm long at gold.
[Starting position]
LONG since 1278-1279.
SL in 1270-1273
Scenario 1 - 20% chances
Gold will maintain slow growth at pace of ascending line developed on last two lows. I'll stay LONG.
Stop loss will take action around 1273. Below 1270 I'm SHORT.
Scenario 2 - 60% chances
We are falling in another wave to more important support around 1250-1260.
SHORT since 1269.
Take profit around 1255, possible trailing stop with 3 USD margin. Back to LONG.
Scenario 3 - 20% chances
We are falling below 1250 with now LONG position so now again to SHORT with perspective of a very rapid and deep dive.
Would be thankful for any constructive input, possible scenarios and opinions about how and if global events might impact situation for gold. What could be biggest trigger? Or is it not affected at all?
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