#4-4 THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD for FX_IDC:XAUUSD by Binary_Forecasting_Service

#4-4 THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD

WARNING & HEADER - This is the 11/08/23 CONTINUOUS EVOLVING FORECAST for ICE/IDC XAUUSD spot gold ticker. As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this is meant to be used with important notes added throughout each day, and altogether to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management . As always, when price moves against forecasts and the next one is not posted, SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively.

SUMMARY - This is the 15-min bar 16-hour generic forecast for overall direction and shape for price action. Continuing from #4-2, price action is playing out a common fractal presented 10 hours ago, but a bit slower than anticipated. Otherwise we are proceeding in a VERY ZIG-ZAG MANNER to the spike down to mid-1940s that will come at NY CLOSE (if early) or before midnight (if late). Dark orange is the favorite with oranges as a whole heavy favorites here 9:1 at time of posting. Blues would aren't even registering, I have them there only because I don't know if what event schedule looks like today.

DETAILS & REFERENCE - Links for five of most recent and relevant posts are below here for background if you need to see how we got here. I recommend that you replay them (especially if you are new to us) occasionally as frame of reference and most importantly, as the ground of our conviction.

IF MY FORECASTS HELP YOU WIN - Want more accuracy or "around the clock" updates? Help me out by introducing my work to people you know ONLY BY WORD OF MOUTH. The more attention I have on this process, the more I will deliver. I need a strong rate of growth for followers to make this worth it. As it is, it's really not for me and I keep trying.

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9:33 AM ET - TIMING SHIFTS:

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a) so RIGHT NOW, it looks like it's going to finish the move RIGHT AT 4PM ET NY CLOSE
b) but this read shifts constantly
c) in theory if it shifts again, it could be 2 PM ET, but this is unlikely
d) conversely if shifts the other way twice, it would 2 AM tomorrow 11/09, but this is also unlikely
e) my call is 7 PM ET

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f) if you keep a TIGHT STOP OF EACH ZIG ZAG GOING DOWN, this is one of my favorite setup
g) each top should be lower than the previous one like a stair case
h) the FASTER this happens, the stronger the odds and the deeper it is likely to go
i) at the tail end, it will bounce off 1953-1957 and hold for little it, and PLUNGE DOWN
j) it has paid me well in the past

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k) 10:06 AM ET WATCH OUT FOR KISS OF DEATH:

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l) my experience with that "kiss of death" where it bounces AND HANGS FOR A LITTLE BIT...
m) it's not "in the forecast" in the sense that I can't actually "see" the move"
n) I just have learned to expect it by fractal analysis

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o) 10:15 AM ET, is there a way to "know" if it will do it
p) yes, just watch regressions for 5 or 10-second bars the entire time
q) in a sense, that's what I want to do and announce updates continuously, but I have to have a huge following to make doing that worth it
r) so as usual, if you like this type of analysis, introduce it to someone you know
s) by word of mouth, that works the best
t) and in return for increased viewership, I deliver more DETAILED BUT MORE CONCISE around the 23-hour/day note updates
u) for those that are new to us, it's the notes that are the most important
v) bc it's faster to type it out than make a whole chart

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10:26 AM ET, KISS OF DEATH SHOULD START NOW BUT...
a) no evidence yet on 10-sec bars

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b) IF I HAVE TIME, I will post some notes

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10:39 if it spikes to 1957 now:

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9:40 nope, killed that window

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10:44 typo, above 10:40 not 9:40, so here's what that means now that it has SHIFTED DOWN SO HARD:

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a) in chart above, if you think it's straight down...
b) then use straight line discipline to manage upside risk
c) otherwise, mean reversion means a slower kiss of death, but a deeper target now
d) like 1940 or 1938

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e) and there it is, should be like this now

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f) BUT UNDERSTAND THAT ODDS CHANGE WITH PRICE..... bc if bounces AND HOLDS:

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g) in chart above: that's the trouble with small bars, or a short window, you can't see the bigger picture
h) then again, how big do you want to get?
i) here's #4-2 again replay it, it's the one that we scrapped to add a gray route:

#4-2 THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD

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j) replay that has price RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE of orange and blue but if you read the notes at the end of #4-1, I gave you this chart:

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k) in chart above, that's the origin basis of #4-2 AND #4-3, and while #4-4 (this post you are reading) is hitting EARLY, here is the zoom in for chart above (bc the path was NOT RANDOM)

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a) in chart above, the expected price pattern FOR NOW BC WE HAVEN'T SEEN THE REST OF THE DAY
b) is the double orange bold path
c) but look at the orange and blue hi-lights criss cross
d) AT THIS POINT IN TIME...
e) we HAVE ZERO PROOF which one it's really doing

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f) and why? well, because it's RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE right now
g) BUT ... A BIT CLOSER TO BLUE
h) and yeah that is IMPORTANT for now..
i) I gotta get going, I'll post notes from my phone if I have timie
j) but that always sucks to do bc of screen issues

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k) meanwhile on 30-second bars again:

l) USE STRAIGHT LINE DISCIPLINE
m) there's NO WAY to tell if the line will break until it does
n) but ONCE IT DOES, something has changed

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o) so here's final thought if bc I am out of time:

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p) for chart above, remember that this is derived from 15 and 30 second bars
q) it's a good guess, but a guess, bc this is mapping price we are talking about
r) crazy stuff happens ALL THE TIME, you just gotta have a base case to trade off of
s) and that's the base cse

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t) this goes w/o saying, but for newbie; this is the IMPORTANT LINE:

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11:59 AM ET, 2 LEGIT ROUTES LEFT BEFORE NY CLOSES:

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THIS POST HAS ENDED, WILL TRY TO GET #4-5 OUT TONIGHT...

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a) a note about chart right above here
b) see the black bold line?
c) IF PRICE MOVES ABOVE IT ...
d) it's no longer safe to short, I have to see what it looks like
e) bc I can see another bull reversal shaping up

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12:30 PM ET BECAREFUL, BE SUSPICIOUS AF!!!!

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1) in chart above the bold black line is from the left, that's how you make one
2) the pressure is down, down, and more down
3) but if it gets in that "V"
4) there's a HARD SWING UP, and it MAYBE STRONGER than dark blue path
5) if it moves to 1947 in minutes, COVER ALL SHORTS
6) if it starts to "LEAD THE V", COVER ALL SHORTS, GO LONG
7) keep stops TIGHT AF BOTH WAYS

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8) when I say "there's a" HARD SWING UP... I mean the setup EXISTS...
9) it is not FAVORED ...
10) BUT IT NEVER IS!!... bc it is a SURPRISE reversal
11) so:

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12) ther'es a better one in chart above:
13) if it starts moving towards that arrow:
a) CLOSE ALL SHORTS OR keeps stops TIGHT AF right on top of it
b) OR
c) GO LONG and keep stops TIGHT AF right underneath it

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12:43 PM ET SO HERE 3 SCENARIOS WITH 2 STOP ZONES

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a) in chart above: if it plays blue IT MUST STAY ABOVE BLUE LINE
b) same for range, except underneath it (for newbies, cause really you never know)
c) IF IT GETS IN THE MIDDLE...
d) then it would be LIKE LAST POST #4-3 link below...
e) CANCEL EVERYTHING until have a route or a fractal to go off of it
f) that's a wrap for me

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g) one last thing.. .move that bold blue line over to the right JUST A LITTLE BIT
h) and blue path IS IMPLYING A 1967 CLOSE THAT IF TRUE ELIMINATE BOTH OF THESE OUTCOMES:

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12:57 PM ET, IT'S DO OR DIE FOR BULLS! AND BEARS ARE LEADING 15 SECOND BARS 60/40

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a) BECAREFUL HERE!!
b) I am going to drive so i can't help you
c) but this thing is going to break one way or the other, and it looks hard!

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d) 1:04 PM ET, this is the last window for bulls in this move, now bears leading 2:1 at 1953.59

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e) this is really it for me, but at 1:08 PM AND 1954.07 on FXOPEN ticker, bears leading 55:45, just go to 60/40 again
f) my guess is bulls will fail here, but its just a guess

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h) it just got to bears 75/25, and now as I type and looks like bears will win

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i) that's it, got past the reversal danger, have a good one rest of day

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j) i just REALIZED WHY THE WAVES WERE SAYING DANGER!
k) bc it looked like a double bottom, so the wave reading is THE SAME THING as a potential double bottom,
l) how I didn't know that by now is weird

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1:24 PM, I see the spike to 1953.5...
a) just trail your stops
b) and use STRAIGT LINE DISCIPLINE... whatever line your choice BUT STICK TO IT

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1:58 PM ET HERE IS TWO OPPOSING RATIOS .... BEARS HAVE THE EDGE 65/35 RIGHT THIS SECOND

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a) please understand...
b) that at the edge of this...
c) it only takes A RANDOM 2-3 PT SWING IN 5 SECONDS TO CHANGE THE ODDS
d) so classical analysis rules always apply at this point
e) don't be stubborn and "have conviction" in the wrong way
f) "have conviction" in what you understand and what you can see
g) don''t "have conviction" in a theory that's being PROVED WRONG LIVE....
h) that's like burning money and time at the same time so it's twice as worse

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i) why did only extend the bull lines?
j) bc those aren't obvious, that's always the harder one

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k) that's why in the HEADER/WARNING I have at top..
l) I ALWAYS say: when price moves against the forecast, SCRAP THE FORECAST
m) especially when you see a it move 3pts and I am not posting
n) bc I cant forecast if I am not looking, in order to get it ALL RIGHT...
o) it MUST BE LIVE ALL THE TIME

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p) if you follow someone who's not willing to
1) defend their analysis or
2) update their analysis
3) which is REALLY THE SAME THING
4) if they don't do that, they are NOT helping you out
5) I am not saying they don't know what they are doing
6) they may do the PERFECT thing w/ their trade
7) but just don't have the time to write cotinuously like this

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2:14 PM ET 1951.60 ODDS SWINGING TO 70/30 BULLS..
a) and price hasn't moved
b) now BEARS HAVE TO PROVE THEY CAN KEEP SELLING
c) or price will spike soon
d) and back to work for me

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e) here:

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f) at the first black arrow IT WOULD STILL FAVOR BULLS
g) at the second arrow, it would be 50/50
h) why?
i) because you have to consider spike down AND INSTANT SPIKE UP...
j) HAPPENS ALL THE TIME

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k) tight stops AF

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l)bulls 55/45

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m) same

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2:44 PM bears 60/40 AND RISING QUICKLY

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2:58 PM TIGHTEN UP STOPS!!

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3:07 PM ET 1947.XX TIGHTEN UP STOPS!!! 1948.5 OR SOMETHING

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3:19 PM ET AT WORK SO CAN'T POST... so very quick
a) another setup for 1965
b) I can't tell how fast or how much zig zag BECAUSE I CAN'T SEE
c) it's 1949.40 as I type
d) don't be short unless the rally BREAKS ITS LINE CONVINCINGLY

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e) if you want to be long, it's not terrible situation USE STRAIGHT LINES &
f) keep STOPS TIGHT AF

Trade closed manually

4:30 PM ET CLOSE OUT
a) just posted something w/ wrong chart so have to post again
b) so first, this rally to 1965 doesn't look good RIGHT NOW
c) second consider this chart from 9:33 AM way above:

d) price "has been EARLY FOR THE CURVES"
e) so in theory, BEARS shouldn't mind a bit of sideways action
f) bear mode is fully intact
g) question how much zig zag before we short it again
h) working on it and will post #4-4 soon

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i) if I can't get it out to night here is base case wide view:

j) and base case 4-min bar:

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k) for chart above that means expect 1900 for end of this week
l) that is base case RIGHT THIS MINUTE & if you don't see me post for whatever reasons, it means this:

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m) here is last one:

n) for chart above the dark orange is base case, my mistake vs chart right before it
o) there are 2 bold lines
p) black is obvious
q) the orange bold curve is the 80/20, 90/10 restriction FOR BEARS
r) meaning AS LONG AS IT HOLDS
s) bears are favored 80-90% FULL STOP

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5:19 PM ET, NO... IT'S AT LEAST BINARY...
1) we have to proceed carefully
2) bc route above is a HUGE FAVORITE BUT ALSO a conditional one

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5:55 PM ET I CAN'T GET IT DONE IN TIME, so:

a) for chart above
b) we just hit THE PERFECT NUMBER FOR THIS BULL THESIS
c) if it was a perfect world
d) so we have to respect the possibility of a bull reversal here

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e) I haven't detailed the other two routes but basically

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7:46 PM ET, ALL I GOT RIGHT NOW IS A MIRROR LIKE THIS:

a) I think it's going bear orange route of course
b) just don't have enough time to clean this all up
c) maybe in 2-3 hours

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d) so as long as THAT BLACK TREND LINE HOLDS
e) it is a short, odds stack heavily if it curves down off that line...
f) but if breaks it like it wants to right now... all bets are off
g) so smart strategy is TO WAIT FOR IT TO DECIDE
h) being long here is not great bc the ceiling is very low... it's nog getting far if it breaks anyway

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i) and 1-min bar:

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j) as I said earlier, as long as that dotted line above holds
k) odds are 80-90% bears turn this down AND TURN IT DOWN HARD
l) but again, the 100 year chart says 1940-1947 is the bottom here so you have watch out for that spike if there is one

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m) it's pushing that line

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n) from my end, it's 8:02 PM ET and 1951.71, I WOULD SHORT IT HERE if
o) and put that stop at 1952.75

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p) if you can afford the $1, it's so worth it FROM MY END...
q) but be prepared to get hit though, bc it's not even supposed to get past 1952...
r) AND IT DID.. so TIGHT STOP AF

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8:09 PM ET... I just got hit at 1952.75
a) that's a wrap for tonight for me
b) bc price is doing what it's NOT SUPPOSED TO DO on 1, 2, 4, and 8-min bars
c) that means we have to wait for a something conclusive, it's not trade-able at RIGHT NOW
d) have a good night, I'll check in with something if I see it

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e) I know it's playing blue route, even faster too:

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f) why not be long here?
g) I can see the move, but I can't explain it
h) I call this "manipulated curve" bc the odds of the move happening is like 1/32 or 1/64
i) and yet it happens...
j) but it's now at a point that I can't chart
k) if you been with me since 9/12 this year, I bring up the 100-year chart now and then
l) but it's not worth the trouble at this time, we need A LOT MORE EVIDENCE
m) just wait it out, I'll come back with something worth your time when I see it

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9:33 PM ET... AND WE JUST TURNED BUT I'M NOT SURE BOTTOM IS IN
a) good news is we are going up, all the way up (odds from my end is 8:2 or 9:1, so I'm really confident in saying this now
b) target 2120 in five weeks so by 12/13 if early, Christmas if late
c) annoying part is it might be a boring few days (why risk anything when you can just wait for the BIG money?)
d) I'm on it will have something tomorrow morning at the latest

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10:33 PM ET, HERE IS ROUGH DRAFT:

a) I haven't detailed, or editted for small bars, but bc of the size of the move and short window
b) this move should be complete by THURSDAY 11/16

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THIS POST HAS ENDED FINALLY, HERE'S NEXT ONE, #5:

#5 THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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