The gold market has recently shown a downward trend against the United States dollar, influenced by various economic and political factors.
Firstly, the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at current levels for a longer period has contributed to the strength of the US dollar. Despite recent data indicating that inflation has not decreased significantly and remains higher than desired, the Fed has taken a cautious approach. The expectation of fewer rate cuts in 2024 than previously anticipated has supported the dollar, putting pressure on gold prices (DailyFX) (J.P. Morgan | Official Website).
Additionally, political uncertainties, particularly those related to the US debt ceiling and fiscal policies, have further supported the dollar as a safe haven, diminishing gold's appeal (DailyFX). As the economic outlook remains uncertain with potential for slower disinflation and a resilient labor market, the dollar's strength is likely to persist, continuing to weigh on gold prices.
In summary, the combined effect of the Fed's cautious stance on interest rates and the ongoing political uncertainties in the US are key factors driving the current weakness in gold prices relative to the US dollar.
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