DXY and Bond Yield still limit GOLD
As market expectations of the Federal Reserve adopting easing policies continue to solidify, higher US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields have sent gold into a correction cycle. significantly reduced.
However, bets on a US interest rate cut in September continuing to increase as well as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will still be a solid fulcrum for the possibility of gold price increases.
US Treasury yields continued the previous day's rise, recording the largest increase since early June and supporting the US Dollar, which weakened the upward momentum and appeal of gold. non-profit.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's performance against six other currencies, rose to 103.1.
Gold is considered a hedge against economic and geopolitical instability and tends to thrive in low interest rate environments. As market concerns about the situation in the Middle East continue to grow, gold will likely continue to show its appeal as a safe haven.
US economic data is sparse this week, traders may focus on today's (Thursday) data on initial jobless claims.
In other notable news, China's central bank did not buy gold as reserves for the third consecutive month in July, official data released showed on Wednesday.
According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 26.5% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 73.5%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively until November is 15.5%, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points cumulatively is 51.8%, and the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates The cumulative 100 basis point yield is 32.7%.
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD
Gold is still trying to hold above key technical levels in the area of the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement confluence with the lower edge of the trend channel and the $2,378 horizontal support, after testing resistance at the confluence of Fibonacci 0.38% and Ema21 were noted to readers in previous publications.
The fact that gold maintains its performance above the above support confluence area only shows that the bullish trend still exists on the daily technical chart. However, for gold to have enough conditions for a stable uptrend, it needs to bring price activity above the original price level of 2,400 USD and then the target level will be noticed at EMA21, more than 2,437 USD points. price of Fibonacci 0.236%.
During the day, gold is still trending up with the price channel as the main trend and notable technical levels will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,385 – 2,378USD
Resistance: 2,400 – 2,408 – 2,437USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2407 - 2405
⚰️SL: 2411
⬆️TP1: 2400
⬆️TP2: 2395
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2363 - 2365
⚰️SL: 2359
⬆️TP1: 2370
⬆️TP2: 2375
However, bets on a US interest rate cut in September continuing to increase as well as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will still be a solid fulcrum for the possibility of gold price increases.
US Treasury yields continued the previous day's rise, recording the largest increase since early June and supporting the US Dollar, which weakened the upward momentum and appeal of gold. non-profit.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's performance against six other currencies, rose to 103.1.
Gold is considered a hedge against economic and geopolitical instability and tends to thrive in low interest rate environments. As market concerns about the situation in the Middle East continue to grow, gold will likely continue to show its appeal as a safe haven.
US economic data is sparse this week, traders may focus on today's (Thursday) data on initial jobless claims.
In other notable news, China's central bank did not buy gold as reserves for the third consecutive month in July, official data released showed on Wednesday.
According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 26.5% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 73.5%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively until November is 15.5%, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points cumulatively is 51.8%, and the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates The cumulative 100 basis point yield is 32.7%.
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD Gold is still trying to hold above key technical levels in the area of the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement confluence with the lower edge of the trend channel and the $2,378 horizontal support, after testing resistance at the confluence of Fibonacci 0.38% and Ema21 were noted to readers in previous publications.
The fact that gold maintains its performance above the above support confluence area only shows that the bullish trend still exists on the daily technical chart. However, for gold to have enough conditions for a stable uptrend, it needs to bring price activity above the original price level of 2,400 USD and then the target level will be noticed at EMA21, more than 2,437 USD points. price of Fibonacci 0.236%.
During the day, gold is still trending up with the price channel as the main trend and notable technical levels will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,385 – 2,378USD
Resistance: 2,400 – 2,408 – 2,437USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2407 - 2405
⚰️SL: 2411
⬆️TP1: 2400
⬆️TP2: 2395
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2363 - 2365
⚰️SL: 2359
⬆️TP1: 2370
⬆️TP2: 2375
Note
Central banks have begun easing policy which is still very important, as policy still needs to be quite tight to bring inflation back to target. They are in no rush to enter an easing cycle quickly. For those banks with enough confidence to cut, many criteria were considered, including the dynamics and composition of current inflation, the expected course of future inflation and the effectiveness of policy making in curbing demand.Note
According to data released by the US Department of Labor, the number of initial claims fell by 17,000 to 233,000 in the week ending August 3. This is supported by lower claims in states such as Michigan, Missouri and Texas. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, increased to 1.88 million in the week ended July 27.Note
Note
Precious metals continue to have a week of intense fluctuations. During the week, there was a time when the gold price plummeted to only 2,381 USD/ounce and then increased sharply again. Closing the week, the world gold price closed at 2,431 USD/ounce but still decreased by more than a dozen USD per ounce compared to the end of last week.Note
The world gold market last week fluctuated strongly due to panic in financial markets in Asia and Europe. In the first session of last week, gold immediately encountered a shock from the devaluation of the yen, combined with concerns about the US economic recession, causing risky assets to drop sharply, pulling gold prices down.Note
GOLD STEADY AS US INFLATION DATA AWAITED
Gold prices rose on Monday as investors await US inflation data due on Wednesday to determine the size of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.
Note
XAU/USD struggled to maintain the upward momentum of the past two days and fluctuated in a narrow range during the Asian session on Monday. The overall positive sentiment in the equity market is seen as the main factor hindering the safe-haven precious metal. The risk of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could temper optimism in the market. Furthermore, it is expected that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will take a loosening stance to keep the USD on the defensive and may support precious metals - non-yielding assets.
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