Taiwan:
Things are tense over the Taiwan Strait. Over the last week, 107 Chinese Air Force Planes entered Taiwan’s airspace. One US Destroyer and a Canadian Frigate transited to Taiwan Strait on Nov 1st. China’s No.2 military chief says “We should attach importance to and consider the security and legitimate concerns of all countries, not impose our will on others” which is ironic but okay. Regardless, China is doing drills over Taiwan for one would assume a future conflict they are preparing for. It is silly that the West is only sending two ships, which makes me think the US cannot have 3 open fronts in different regions of the world… and it looks like China knows it too. I would not be surprised by a Taiwanese invasion within the next 12 months as the intensity of the drills is increasing, and the only major obstacle is busy and almost broke. The only thing I suspect is introducing any restraint to the Chinese is the fact of the diplomatic mess they will find themselves in if they take Taiwan by force. It would also ruin their image as they will now be seen as any other imperialist nation that the world has seen before.
Turkyie:
Turkyie is making waves in the Western world that are frightening many Western leaders. Since the fall of the Ottoman empire, Turkyie has seen the Middle East ravaged over and over again as they sat quietly to try and quell their religious fundamentalist from rioting or taking over and ruining Turkyie’s chance of becoming Westernized and Europenized. After the fall of the Soviet Union and the shenanigans, the Europeans and Americans partook in since the 90’s basically killed Turkyie’s appetite to join said block. Especially repeated insults about the Kurdish question that still cause major discomfort for the Turkish but also the Iranians, Iraqis, and Syrians. All that has started to change with the Iraq war and with Turkyie surviving a coup that they suspected the Americans and Europeans provoked being the final nail.
With Tayyip Erdogan winning the election earlier this year, religious fundamentalists now have majority power in Turkyie as he relied on them for his victory. The Isreal Gaza war really showed the world how united the country is and that has emboldened him to be more forceful on the international stage on a more nationalistic front, a more Ottoman front. People forget that the Arabs backstabbed the Turks to help topple their empire during WW2. They didn’t lose the Middle East because they weren’t ready for war; they lost the Middle East because they got attacked from the inside out. Given this is a very short nutshell history neglecting the Ottomans being completely spread thin and finances shady, that fateful event was enough to turn the tide. The Arabs pretty much regretted it ever since as the West screwed them and gave them Israel as a thank you. 75 years later, if the Turks don’t hold grudges, they will have a super strong dedicated ally going forward. The Middle East is completely different from the 1940s, 1970s, or even the 1990s. Most people were uneducated and poor… that isn’t the same now with almost every country in the Middle East more or less educated and literate. Plus Social Media. People are considerably smarter than they were in the past.
Let’s not forget that because of being in the West, Turkyie has a very very strong military force. It has a long history of imperialistic conquest and has a lot of officer programs that keep its military in check. It is nothing like the US and Israel but considerably stronger than any other military in the region. Iran may come a close second, I’m not too familiar with all of Iranian military might. The US and Israel only win when they have the technological advantage. You take that away, and you get a long, protracted war that is expensive in both coin and blood (Like Ukraine and with the West's help. Without it, the war would have been over in a month). A high-tech military fighting and an almost equal army with a population considerably larger and closer is not a gamble I will be comfortable taking. The West's best heed, Erdogan when he says the conflict will expand if Israel is not stopped, it would be unwise to call it a bluff.