Gold has to recover #1,952.80 to restore Buying sentiment
Gold's general commentary: As discussed, Gold reached Weekly Top’s already (#1,947.80) by strongly rejecting the Price-action throughout Tuesday’s U.S. session and was aggressively correcting Intra-day gains. I once more witnessed how unstable sessions (such as Friday’s one) are best to be avoided and Trade only viable patterns which Tuesday’s session has delivered. There isn’t big Price-action difference between Gold’s Spot prices (Xau-Usd) and Futures contracts, which means that during these Volatile times Investors will move their capital from riskier assets (Stock markets, Equities) to Gold as a safe-haven that it represents for a long period of time, but with the ever-growing Inflation and war news escalations, Investors may choose Bond Yields aswell, and very own new meta (which is the case lately), Bitcoin. The Hourly 1 chart’s Ascending Channel is now testing the Lower High’s trendline, but I doubt it’s strength since Gold was Overbought almost on all charts and #1,930.80 - #1,935.80 is showcasing strong durability. With DX (# +0.27%) now Bullish but still below the possible Quadruple Top Resistance cluster after the positive Fundamental news, it has to correct it’s gains sooner and later which can add additional Buying pressure on Gold, where Price-action has less downside momentum to go Lower since DX shouldn’t soar anymore, but as repeated many times, Gold is ignoring Bond Yields movements and is more tied to DX on Intra-day basis.
Technical analysis: Despite holding the #1,916.80 - #1,919.80 Support zone and rebounding, Gold is seen on the current Hourly 4 candle, Trading on Buying pressure yet again (as Powell’s speeches traditionally are attracting Buyers on the aftermath, even though speech had hawkish stance). However, if #1,919.80 and #1,916.80 Support lines can’t contain takedown which Gold may be pricing ahead, it is possible to see Xau-Usd Spot prices test it’s Daily chart’s Medium-term Lower High’s Upper zone extension, which is currently Trading at #1,900.80 (but testing can be made closer to #1,901.80 - #1,902.80), means that if #1,916.80 breaks, #1,900.80 has decent chances to be filled Intra-day (June #1, #2021 Top’s). Regardless of the perspective, it is the DX that is making capital that was 'parked' on the riskier assets, now flee to Gold as an well known safe-haven that it represents. Since February #27, #2019 though, every Daily chart’s Descending Channel has held the Resistance that was made when then MACD had already rolled over, and then initiated a very aggressive rally (exception on March virus outbreak). This actually means that on a #1-Month horizon, Gold is close to the most optimal Selling entry for a #1,800.80 barrier test. My estimations show that #1,792.80 configuration will be tested within first #2 Weeks when Fundamental dust settles, while I expect #1,678.80 or less throughout November - December fractal.
Fundamental analysis: Strong rejection on the #1,916.80 Support zone following Powell’s speech aftermath. The rejection has so far delivered a pullback as expected on both Hourly 1 chart’s and Hourly 4 chart’s Higher High’s extension again, zone that in my view plays the role of the Pivot within the Support and Resistance structure. As long as DX is vulnerable, the Hourly 4 chart’s #1,916.90 on Gold is coming strong from below to offer stiff Support (and rebound point) as it has done so since early #Q1 #2021. Fundamentally the market's eyes are on the indecisive Fed’s chair, aswell in anticipation of a further tapering that will continue to Support the economy in the same fashion (many similarities with December). Gold priced an correction as Fundamental Buying pressure eased (ceasefire polemic).
My position: As stated in the headline, if Gold does not recover #1,952.80 within #1 session, I will Sell Gold on Medium-term towards #1,882.80 Selling extension (way below #1,900.80 barrier). Regarding Intra-day developments, I will place my Buying order if #1,833.80 breaks (adding strict Risk management) and pursue #1,952.80 in extension. However, if #1,952.80 gets tested and invalidated, #1,975.80 (Monthly High's peak) is the level to look at.
Technical analysis: Despite holding the #1,916.80 - #1,919.80 Support zone and rebounding, Gold is seen on the current Hourly 4 candle, Trading on Buying pressure yet again (as Powell’s speeches traditionally are attracting Buyers on the aftermath, even though speech had hawkish stance). However, if #1,919.80 and #1,916.80 Support lines can’t contain takedown which Gold may be pricing ahead, it is possible to see Xau-Usd Spot prices test it’s Daily chart’s Medium-term Lower High’s Upper zone extension, which is currently Trading at #1,900.80 (but testing can be made closer to #1,901.80 - #1,902.80), means that if #1,916.80 breaks, #1,900.80 has decent chances to be filled Intra-day (June #1, #2021 Top’s). Regardless of the perspective, it is the DX that is making capital that was 'parked' on the riskier assets, now flee to Gold as an well known safe-haven that it represents. Since February #27, #2019 though, every Daily chart’s Descending Channel has held the Resistance that was made when then MACD had already rolled over, and then initiated a very aggressive rally (exception on March virus outbreak). This actually means that on a #1-Month horizon, Gold is close to the most optimal Selling entry for a #1,800.80 barrier test. My estimations show that #1,792.80 configuration will be tested within first #2 Weeks when Fundamental dust settles, while I expect #1,678.80 or less throughout November - December fractal.
Fundamental analysis: Strong rejection on the #1,916.80 Support zone following Powell’s speech aftermath. The rejection has so far delivered a pullback as expected on both Hourly 1 chart’s and Hourly 4 chart’s Higher High’s extension again, zone that in my view plays the role of the Pivot within the Support and Resistance structure. As long as DX is vulnerable, the Hourly 4 chart’s #1,916.90 on Gold is coming strong from below to offer stiff Support (and rebound point) as it has done so since early #Q1 #2021. Fundamentally the market's eyes are on the indecisive Fed’s chair, aswell in anticipation of a further tapering that will continue to Support the economy in the same fashion (many similarities with December). Gold priced an correction as Fundamental Buying pressure eased (ceasefire polemic).
My position: As stated in the headline, if Gold does not recover #1,952.80 within #1 session, I will Sell Gold on Medium-term towards #1,882.80 Selling extension (way below #1,900.80 barrier). Regarding Intra-day developments, I will place my Buying order if #1,833.80 breaks (adding strict Risk management) and pursue #1,952.80 in extension. However, if #1,952.80 gets tested and invalidated, #1,975.80 (Monthly High's peak) is the level to look at.
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- Trading Gold since #2012'.
- I do provide professional Gold consulting (signals and financial advice) and Gold Trading school.
- Trading Gold since #2012'.
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