Short

XAUUSD: US to have permanently higher rates than elsewhere

Updated

The rise in inflation when a fall was expected is a setback, not a “reacceleration of inflation” as some headlines put it. We continue to expect mostly falling inflation but not to the Fed target of 2%, which will take years, not months. That implies the US having permanently higher rates than elsewhere, even if inflation in the eurozone is higher (8.2% expected this week) because the ECB is more cautious and its terminal rate lower than the Fed’s. Historically, that implies a stronger dollar for a far longer time to come, possibly the whole year.

SELL XAUUSD zone -2007

Stoploss: 2012
Take Profit1: 1995
Take Profit2: 1990
Take Profit3: 1985

BUY XAUUSD zone 1978-1981

Stoploss: 1974
Take Profit1: 1985
Take Profit2: 1990
Take Profit3: 1995

Trade active

Trade closed: stop reached

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