GOLD falls below 2,330 USD, capital flows into China Gold ETF

Updated

XAUUSD falling rapidly again after recovering in yesterday's trading session, the current drop is around 9$ on the day to below 2,330$ and reported at the time of publication to be finished at 2,325$ or down 0.40%. .
Investors are looking forward to US inflation data later this week, which could influence the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

The data focus this week is on Friday's US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the labor market is "about" to reach an inflection point and that further weakness will mean a rise in unemployment. Daly's comments showed she was leaning towards a dovish stance, adding: "Inflation is not the only risk we face right now."
Four other Fed officials are being closely watched, including Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman, who are expected to speak this week.

According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders now see a 67.1% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September.

According to Bank of America, China Gold ETF continued to see capital inflows, increasing by 253 million USD. This is the 6th consecutive month of capital inflow.
China's gold ETF purchases have been driven by stock market weakness, a depreciating local currency and falling bond yields, with holdings now at a record high.

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), market forces still appear to provide a solid foundation as about 20 central banks surveyed expect to increase their gold holdings next year.
Bank of America said China's physical market was slightly weaker but remained generally supportive, with jewelry sales continuing to hover near seasonal highs. Likewise, China's domestic market prices are still higher than international prices.

Another notable piece of data is that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said that as of the week of June 18, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts increased by 11,984 lots to 189,533 lot.

GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [June 24 - June 28]

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is declining after recovering and approaching the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which is noted as the closest technical resistance on the daily gold price chart. .

Although gold has declined, the price decline has not brought price activity below the price channel, the short-term trend price channel, this means gold still has support factors from the lower edge of the price channel and the technical level of 2,324 USD. comments to readers in yesterday's edition.

Although gold still has bullish conditions, the lower edge of the price channel produced a significant recovery yesterday and now if it breaks below gold could face further sell-off. same target around 2,305 – 2,300USD, so open long positions should be protected after the price channel breaks below.

During the day, gold still has a technical upside prospect with notable positions being listed as follows.
Support: 2,324 – 2,320USD
Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2346 - 2344

⚰️SL: 2350

⬆️TP1: 2339
⬆️TP2: 2334

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301

⚰️SL: 2295

⬆️TP1: 2306
⬆️TP2: 2311

Note

🟢In the US, investors contending with uncertainty related to inflation, interest rates and geopolitics are already bracing for volatility that could accompany the presidential campaign and November election.

Note

- If XAUUSD holds above $2,300/ounce, the price could retest its previous swing high around $2,350/ounce before heading towards resistance at $2,400/ounce.
- On the contrary, XAUUSD could retest the previous swing bottom at around 2,275-2,285 USD/ounce if the price closes below the support level.

Note

World gold prices plummeted to their lowest level in 2 weeks, penetrating the important psychological threshold of 2,300 USD/oz, as the USD increased sharply while the market waited for an important US inflation report. Some experts believe that the toughness of US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and the rise of the USD will continue to put downward pressure on gold prices in the short term, but the gold price trend may change. should be clearer from Friday.

Note

GOLD has dropped to its lowest level in 2 weeks

Note

🟡Gold prices stabilized today after falling to the lowest level in two weeks in the previous session, with investors awaiting US inflation data in search of indications about the path of the US Federal Reserve reducing interest rates.

Note

🟢One bank expects gold prices to fall to this level!

After gold prices (XAU/USD) rose earlier in the year, analysts at ABN AMRO Bank were cautious about their outlook on gold prices and maintained their forecasts at $2,000 per ounce by December 2024.

Note

Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday (June 27) from a more than two-week low hit in the previous session, as the dollar weakened and attention turned to key US inflation data to looking for clues about the policy roadmap of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Note

🟡Gold prices are declining, but they are heading to record an increase for the third quarter in a row, at a time when investors are awaiting US inflation data scheduled to be released later today.

- Gold in spot transactions fell 0.3% to $2,321.18 per ounce

- Gold prices increased by about 4% during the second quarter of 2024

Note

(Focus) US core PCE: 0.1% m/m (Forecast: 0.1%. Previous: 0.2%)
Canadian GDP: 0.3 % m/m (Forecast: 0.3%. Previous: 0.0%)

Note

On the daily chart, gold recovered but the early recovery was beaten by the target resistance area presented to readers in the previous issue of 2,340 – 2,345 USD, the price area of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement and technical level 2,345USD.

Gold's weekly close still within the price channel shows that the downtrend remains stable, while price activity returning below the EMA21 also makes this moving average the closest current resistance for gold. with the price of gold technically on the daily chart.

Note

World gold prices started a new trading week this morning (July 1) in a slightly decreasing state. After rising strongly in the second quarter and the first half of the year, gold prices have leveled off recently and experts predict they will continue to struggle in the short term.

Note

Goldman Sachs predicts when and how much the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates

Two analysts at the famous American investment bank, Goldman Sachs, presented their expectations for the steps of the US Federal Reserve regarding the date and number of times it will cut interest rates during the bank’s meetings this year.

Note

🔴Fed says it’s not ready to cut rates until ‘greater confidence’ inflation is moving to 2% goal.

Note

The dollar declines after interest rate cut hopes rise

The US dollar fell in early European trade on Thursday as weak economic data raised expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while the pound rose as the UK headed to the polls.

At 13:34 Riyadh time, the dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of six other currencies, was trading 0.15% lower at 104.907, continuing the sharp declines seen overnight.

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