Short

XAUMO | Tactical Market Report – Friday, April 25, 2025

Overall Market Outlook:

The market is currently moving in a clear distribution zone, between 3,337 and 3,346.
There’s strong evidence of a bull trap near the 3,346 high.
Price is failing to stay above the VWAP, and we’re seeing overlapping signals between the HMA5 and EMA21.
A close below 3,329.00 would be a major reversal signal, possibly kicking off a wide downward move.

Session-Based Behavior (Cairo Time):

1. London Session (10:00 AM – 1:00 PM):

Expected Behavior: Fake breakout to attract buyers
Tactics: 
Watch for fast moves into the 3,337–3,345 zone
Sell if rejection candles appear (Shooting Star / Bearish Engulfing)
Confirm with divergence or internal support break on the 15-min chart

2. Pre-New York (1:00 PM – 3:00 PM):

Expected Behavior: Tight consolidation and position building
Tactics: 
Monitor price around 3,320–3,329
If price stays below VWAP, stick with short positions
Don’t go long unless there’s a real breakout with strong volume + RSI confirmation

3. New York Open (3:30 PM – 4:30 PM):

Expected Behavior: Initial fake move followed by strong momentum
Tactics: 
Sell after a break below 3,306 + retest
RSI dropping below 40 = strong bearish momentum confirmation

4. New York Continuation (After 4:30 PM):

Expected Behavior: Continuation in the dominant direction
Tactics: 
If price stays under 3,306.50 → continue selling
Use a trailing take profit and adjust based on price movement

Trading Scenarios:

Main Bearish Scenario (Primary Setup):

Entry Options: 
Sell Limit at 3,329
Sell Stop at 3,306

Stop Loss Levels: 
SL1: 3,341.12
SL2 (Trailing): 3,345.35

Take Profit Targets: 
TP1: 3,294
TP2: 3,278
TP3: 3,255.74
TP4: 3,226.88
TP5: 3,198.01

Confidence Level: 85%
Why This Trade? 
Failed breakout
Clear distribution signals on the chart
Confirmed bull trap above 3,342.82

Alternative Bullish Reversal Scenario (Low Probability):

Entry: Buy Stop at 3,346
Stop Loss: SL at 3,337
Take Profit: 
TP1: 3,355
TP2: 3,367.45

Confidence Level: 50%
Conditions Needed: 
Ichimoku Cloud breakout
EMA21, EMA8, and HMA5 aligning upward
Bullish RSI divergence + MACD crossover

Structural Outlook (10:00 AM):

Moving Average Cluster (HMA5 + EMA21): 3,307 – 3,310
Institutional Resistance Zone: 3,337 – 3,346
Confirmed Traps: 
Bull Traps at 3,342.82 and 3,338.70

Volume Profile: 
VWAP = Rejected
VPOC shifted toward 3,294
Large selling volume: 246.69K

=========
Key Economic Events Today (Cairo Time):

4:00 PM – Final US Consumer Confidence (April): 
Strong reading = Bullish for USD = Bearish for Gold
Weak reading = Bearish for USD = Bullish for Gold

Evening – US Oil Rig Count: 
Increase = Rising inflation expectations → indirect support for Gold
No change = Minor short-term impact

========
XAUMO | Bullish Tactical Plan

Bullish Idea Summary:

Even though the market is under heavy selling pressure, there’s still a chance for a bullish counter move if these technical reversal signals show up:

Reversal candles like a Hammer or Bullish Engulfing near 3,294–3,286 support
A solid breakout above the Ichimoku Cloud at 3,346
Bullish RSI Divergence + MACD Crossover

Conditions for Bullish Activation:

Price must break and hold above 3,346 with rising volume
HMA5, EMA8, and EMA21 must cross upward on both 15-min and 1-hour charts
Must see strong momentum + BBMA reversal confirmation

Buy Scenario Details:

Entry: Buy Stop at 3,346.20
Stop Loss: 
SL1: 3,337
SL2 (Trailing): 3,333.15

Targets: 
TP1: 3,355.00
TP2: 3,367.45 (weekly high)
TP3: 3,385.00 (Institutional exit zone via BBU)

Confidence Level: 50–60%
Why the caution? Previous breakouts in this range have failed repeatedly.

Final Note:

“Below 3,306, price gets crushed. Above 3,346 is just a distribution trap.
Buying without a real breakout? That’s tactical suicide.
Read the chart, not your wishes.”

Conclusion:

If the bullish scenario plays out today, Friday April 25, 2025, the market may be heading into a short-term rally fueled by temporary momentum after a sharp pullback.

The key to this move is a strong and confirmed breakout above the 3,346 resistance zone. As of now, price is still hesitating below that level, which signals ongoing distribution—or maybe preparation for a breakout.

To confirm the setup, you’ll need:

a clean close above 3,346
upward crossover of HMA5, EMA8, and EMA21 on the 15m and 1h
RSI crossing 55 and MACD flipping positive

Only then does the Buy Stop at 3,346.20 become a serious play, with stops placed smartly at 3,337 and a trailing stop at 3,333.15 to avoid fakeouts.

Initial targets are 3,355, then 3,367.45, and finally 3,385 as the stretch goal—an institutional area where profit-taking is likely.

Still, with confidence only around 50–60%, this trade needs clear technical confirmation before execution.

If the market drops back below 3,329, the bearish plan remains the default.

The price decides. We just stay ready.

ICHIMOKUontheNILE

Mohamed
THE Ichimoku MAN on the Nile
#traders4traders
you are welcome to join my Telegram channel, Ichimokuonthenile.
for GOLD follow this link: t.me/GOLDontheNILE
youtube youtube.com/@ICHIMOKUontheNILE

Also on:

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

ICHIMOKUontheNILE

Also on: