With Bullish bias into new Week - 2025/05/26

India / Pakistan
The ceasefire from May 10 remains tense but intact. Both sides claim victory, while Pakistan strengthens ties with China. Cross-border attacks have ceased, but mutual distrust persists.
➡️ Situation remains fragile; renewed escalation is possible.

Gaza Conflict
Israel intensifies "Gideon’s Chariot" with ground forces in Khan Younis. Mass evacuations and high civilian casualties worsen the humanitarian crisis. Peace talks have stalled as the offensive continues.
➡️ No relief in sight; humanitarian conditions are deteriorating further.

Russia / Ukraine
On May 24, Russia launched its largest air assault yet with 367 missiles and drones—13 civilians were killed. Just before, both sides exchanged 1,000 prisoners. Peace talks remain suspended.
➡️ Violence is escalating; a ceasefire remains out of reach.

U.S.–China Trade War
The 90-day tariff pause triggered a rush to import from China. Shipping bottlenecks and high freight rates are straining businesses. Structural issues remain unresolved.
➡️ Short-term easing; long-term tensions persist.

Trade War on global view
The global trade war has escalated in May 2025, with the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on EU imports and a 25% levy on foreign-made smartphones, citing trade imbalances. The EU has condemned these moves, warning of potential retaliation. In response to U.S. tariffs, China has restricted rare earth exports, impacting global supply chains. ASEAN nations, heavily affected by U.S. tariffs ranging from 10% to 49%, are urging deeper regional integration to mitigate economic disruptions. The IMF has downgraded global growth forecasts to 2.8% for 2025, citing trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Supply chains are being restructured, with companies shifting production to countries like Vietnam and Mexico. Financial markets are volatile, with increased inflationary pressures and investor anxiety.
➡️ Emerging markets face currency volatility and economic instability due to the ongoing trade conflicts.

⚖️Trump vs. Powell
President Trump increases pressure on Fed Chair Powell to cut rates. The Fed holds interest rates at 4.25–4.5% and warns of inflation. A 10% staff reduction is planned to boost efficiency.
➡️Political interference is increasingly destabilizing markets.

U.S. Inflation – April 2025
Inflation dropped to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021. However, consumer inflation expectations remain high at 7.3%. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8—a historic low.
➡️A clear gap is emerging between official data and public perception.

🟢 Trend: A clear uptrend is evident. After hitting a low of $3,204 on May 20, gold experienced a strong rally, forming consistently higher highs and higher lows. A brief pullback on May 22 was quickly bought up.

📈 Structure: A series of bullish flag patterns developed, each resolving to the upside. The high at $3,366 currently marks the most significant resistance level.

🔮 Outlook from May 26, 2025
Resistance: $3,366 (recent high)
Support: $3,310 (last local low), below that $3,280 (breakout zone)
Bias: Bullish as long as price holds above $3,310

📌 Scenario 1 – Bullish Breakout: A sustained breakout above $3,366 could unlock further upside potential toward the $3,390–$3,410 area. When Asia session starting with bull GAP the Scenario is the one i preffer.

📌 Scenario 2 – Pullback: A retracement to the $3,310–$3,280 zone would be a healthy correction within the trend, provided this zone holds.

🧭 Conclusion:
Gold remains in a steady uptrend. As long as support levels hold, a continuation toward $3,500 is likely. RSI may be overbought on higher timeframes, so short-term consolidations are possible, but structurally the setup remains bullish.